Society for American Baseball Research, Rogers Hornsby Chapter

October 2024 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

As part of a longtime chapter tradition, fourteen chapter members and guests gathered to watch World Series Game 2 on Saturday, pitting diehard Dodgers fan Jerry Miller against diehard Yankees fan Ira Siegel.

In a close game that got tighter when the Yankees’ bats awoke to mount a ninth-inning rally, Jerry gave us a nearly pitch-by-pitch rendition of the Dodgers’ win-probability percentage while Ira took renewed interest in the game. Alas for Ira and Yankees fans, the Dodgers held on for a 4-2 win, taking a two-games-to-none lead.

But the victory may have come at a steep cost as superstar Shohei Ohtani injured his shoulder attempting to steal second base in the seventh inning. It remains to be seen if he’ll return when the World Series resumes in the Bronx on Monday.

Jerry said he’s hopeful that his team can win at least one game in New York, while Ira remembers World Series in which the team that sprinted out to a quick 2-0 lead has gone on to lose the series, including in a prior matchup between the Yankees and the Dodgers. Jerry said he’s well aware of the history, but admitted that he likes his team’s chances two games in.

In other words, both have high hopes.

As he has long done, gracious and generous host Jim Baker provided dinner, this time yummy New Jersey-style pies from Saccone’s Pizza, while Linda and Monte Cely shared a scrumptious chocolate trifle and Ira brought homemade oatmeal raisin cookies. Others brought beverages and snacks.

We also remembered Dodgers ace Fernando Valenzuela, the winner of the 1981 National League Cy Young and Rookie of the Year. El Toro died on Oct. 22.

We also heard from Jan Larson, who was unable to join us as he recovers from a recent surgery. Monte Cely shared a note from Jan during a mid-inning commercial break.

“I’m sorry that I’m forced to miss Jim’s soirée,” Jan wrote. “Unless you’re a diehard Dodgers fan, please root for the Yankees. After all, their fans have gone 15 years since their last World Series!”

It was great to hear from Jan, who serves on the chapter’s leadership team as a director. We wish him a quick recovery and hope to see him again soon.

This was the 215th consecutive month in which the chapter has met. This was also the 12th time Jim Baker has hosted a World Series watch party at his home. Thanks so much, Jim!

Not only did Jim host and feed us, he also unveiled a Yankees-Dodgers World Series themed quiz, which may have favored superfans Jerry Miller and Ira Siegel. In fact, Jerry took top billing with a score of 25, barely edging Tom Thayer, who had 24. Ira took third with 21 points.

Think you can do better? Give it a try at the end of this newsletter (answers immediately follow the questions).

Predictatron update: A Mike Dillon Miracle?

By Jim Baker (shared on Oct. 22 prior to the start of the World Series)

With the World Series looming, we are combining the updates on our two contests because they are linked by one incredible-but-still-possible feat: Mike Dillon can win both of them if things break exactly right for him!

First, the easy one: If the Yankees win the World Series, Mike will pull off one of the great comebacks in the history of this contest and nip long-time leader Brian Rodgers to win Predictatron by a score of 832-831. For that contest, the game count doesn’t matter.

It does, however, matter a great deal for the Postseason Tourney. If the Yankees also win the World Series in seven games, Mike will be our champion there as well, and will head home from our January meeting in San Marcos loaded down with a ton of hardware.

In any of the other three Yankee-win outcomes, Ryan Pollack is the champion. Ryan is also the champion in the event of a Dodgers victory, so you have to like his chances right about now. Here are the four Yankee win scenarios:

Ryan wins outright in a four- or five-game Series and wins by virtue of the tiebreaker if the Yankees win in six, as the total number of games in the 2024 playoffs will then match his prediction of 35 exactly. As you can see, it’s only in the seven-game Series that Mike gets his full 10 points, which is enough to beat Ryan.

Getting back to the main contest, a Dodgers victory will allow Brian Rogers to keep his big lead and take home the big trophy. Regardless of the Series outcome, though, Eric Robinson wins the Raeanne Martinez Division, which will—by tradition (or maybe it’s by law)—be known as the Eric Robinson Division in 2025.

This chart shows where everyone will finish in Predictatron in the two remaining World Champion outcomes:

The player with the biggest swing between the two eventualities is Ira Siegel. Picking the Yankees to win it all will land him in third place if they actually follow through on his prediction, but consign him to eighth if they don’t. Scott Gay has a four-place difference going the other way.

Here are the full standings for the Postseason Tourney in both their possible iterations.

If the Yankees win the World Series
(note that the four players who have the Yankees winning it all can lose up to two points each, depending on the length of the Series):

If the Dodgers win the World Series
(Note that the four players who have the Dodgers winning it all can lose up to two points each, depending on the length of the Series.) Second place will go to either Gary McIntosh or Mike Harrell and will depend heavily on the Series length as they are both tied with 28 possible points at the moment. Mike gets the runner-up spot in a four- and five-game Series as Gary will lose two points in those scenarios. Gary wins out in a seven-game series. If the Dodgers win in six, Mike wins the tiebreaker for being closer to the total game count of 35.

 

Announcing Ryan Pollack’s Contractatron contest!

(Editor’s note: Deadline alert! The deadline is noon the day after the last World Series game, which could come as soon as Wednesday, Oct. 30, in the event of a Dodgers sweep!)

By Ryan Pollack

🎩 STEP RIGHT UP, FOLKS! 🎩

Gather ’round, ladies and gentlemen, and feast your eyes on the MOST thrilling, the MOST dazzling, the MOST sensational contest of the baseball offseason – IT’S THE CONTRACTATRON! 🤹‍♂️⚾️

Yes, sir, yes, ma’am, it’s your chance to outguess the experts, outwit the wise guys, and predict the biggest free-agent contracts in all the land! Can you guess how many of those glorious greenbacks, those delightful dollars, those stacked sawbucks, the mightiest ballplayers in the world will land? 

Well, step right up and test your wits in this rip-roarin’, high-flyin’ extravaganza!

🎪 HOW DO YA PLAY, YA ASK? 🎪

1. FOR THESE 10 PLAYERS, predict their contracts with your finest crystal-ball skills!
2. SCORIN’ IS SIMPLE! We’ll judge ya on how close you can get to the real deal! The closer you are, the lower and better your score – it’s as easy as pie! We measure the difference between the predicted and actual contracts as a percentage of the actual contract, and the smaller the number, the better!

EXAMPLES, YOU SAY?

1. • You guess Charles “Horseface” Johnson will get $500M, but he only gets $300M. That’s a 66.7% score! ($200M miss divided by the $300M contract)
   • You guess Ambrose “Cranky Ankle” Smith will get $5M, but he ends up with $6M. That’s a 16.7% score! ($1M miss divided by the $6M contract)
   • You guess “Smilin’” Wilbur Abernathy will get $100M, but he ends up with $92.8M. That’s a 7.8% score! ($7.2M miss divided by the $92.8M contract) 
   • Average ’em out and ya get a final score of 30.4%! Ain’t that somethin’?! Is it more accurate than your fellow contestants’?! You’ll have to wait to find out!!

1. TIE-BREAKERS?! If it’s neck and neck, we’ll settle it the old-fashioned way: whoever submitted their entry first wins! It’s all about timing, folks!

🎉 RULES AND REGULATIONS, NOW DON’T FORGET ’EM! 🎉

• ONLY THE GUARANTEED BUCKS COUNT! We’re talkin’ cold, hard cash, no incentives, no team or mutual options, no escalators – and certainly no conditional salaries! (Player opt-outs are counted as part of the contract though, because they are guaranteed.)
• DON’T WORRY ABOUT DEFERRALS! Contract include mega deferrals? No need to do fancy math! Just use the total reported value! (Example: Because of deferrals, Ohtani’s $700M contract is valued at $460M for luxury tax purposes. Contractatron would judge you on the $700M reported value.)
• MAJOR LEAGUE MONEY ONLY! None of that minor league mumbo-jumbo here!
• QUALIFYIN’ OFFERS ARE FAIR GAME! If a player accepts one, it counts!
• AND IF THEY DON’T HIT FREE AGENCY? Why, then we never heard of ’em! Gone, forgotten, erased!
• NO EXTENSIONS ALLOWED! It’s free agency or bust, folks!

🎈 CONTEST BEGINS WHEN?! 🎈
Your entries are due at high noon CST, the day after the last scheduled game of the World Series – that’s right, folks, don’t delay, don’t dilly-dally! If it’s a sweep, your ballots are due at noon the day after Game 4 starts! (If a player signs before this time, poof! They’re gone from the contest!)

We’ll tally the results at 9 a.m. (Central Standard Time) on Opening Day of the U.S.-based season or after all 10 free agents sign, whichever comes first! Any signings that happen after that? Why, they’re as good as erased! Overseas MLB games? Japan, Korea, Australia? Bah! They don’t count for this here contest!

=====

So, step right up! Roll up your sleeves, sharpen those pencils, and let’s see who’s got the sharpest mind in the land when it comes to predictin’ those big money contracts! 

It’s the Contractatron, folks – the contest that’ll have ya on the edge of your seat all winter long! 🎺🎉

Submit your guesses here! Time’s a-wastin’! 

Next meeting

Our next chapter meeting will be at 1 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 17, at Serranos (at MoPac and Ben White). This will come just prior to MLB’s announcement of the sport’s biggest awards that week. A meeting announcement and call for RSVPs will come at the beginning of November. Hope you can join us!

Yankees versus Dodgers in the World Series Quiz

By Jim Baker

Part I: General Stuff (3 total points)

2024 marks the twelfth World Series matchup between the Dodgers and Yankees, the most in history. How many of these took place before the Dodgers moved to Los Angeles?

How many of the plethora of Yankee World titles have come against the Dodgers?

Which two teams have met the second-most times in the World Series?

Part II: The First Time They Met (4 total points)

In what year was the first Dodgers-Yankees World Series?

The first-ever World Series home run hit by a Dodger against the Yankees (and the only one they had in this Series) came off the bat of this very talented young player who was infamous for crashing into walls at high speed, a practice that shortened his very promising career considerably.

While Hall of Famers Bill Dickey, Phil Rizzuto and Joe DiMaggio went a combined 10-for-55 with just one XBH, this fourth Hall of Famer and second baseman picked up their slack by pacing the World Champion Yankees with a Series OPS of 1.595.

With Brooklyn on the verge of tying the Series at two games apiece, a missed third strike by this Dodgers catcher with two outs in the ninth and the Dodgers leading in Game Four is one of the more infamous moments in World Series history and one he never really lived down as Tommy Heinrich reached first base and the Yankees went on to win the game and the Series.

Part III: The Last Time Before This Time (7 total points)

In what year was the last Dodgers-Yankees World Series before this one?

The last time these two teams met in the Series, the Dodgers had a famous infield that played together as a unit for eight-and-a-half seasons, culminating in this Series. Name all four for the four-point credit. No partial credit. It’s all or nothing!

1b________________________     2b________________________

3b________________________      ss_________________________

This Yankee was charged with three losses in that Series, the only man to do so when not actively involved in throwing the proceedings. (Looking at you, Lefty Williams…)

a.) Ron Davis b.) Rich Gossage   c.) George Frazier   d.) Terry Forster

Holy Dal Maxvill, Batman! This Hall of Famer went 1-for-22 in the Series (although he did have five walks) and, when he finally got a single in the last game to break his oh-for-20 schneid, he had the chutzpah to ask for the ball!

Part IV: Larsen’s Perfect Game (8 total points)

On October 8, 1956, Don Larsen of the Yankees pitched a perfect game against the Dodgers, winning 2-0. In which game of the World Series did it come?

This man, who was more famous for playing for another New York team, was the opposing pitcher against Larsen.

Name as many of the five Hall of Famers who went 0-for-3 against Larsen that day as you can. One point each.

1______________________  2______________________  3______________________  4______________________ 5______________________

Who gave the Yankees the only run they would need with a solo home run in the fourth inning?

Part V: The Rest of Them (9 total points)

In Game Four of the 1947 Series, this Yankee hurler almost threw the first no-hitter in World Series history. Instead, the last of the 10 (!) walks he issued finally caught up with him as he followed it by surrendering a walk-off pinch double to Cookie Lavagetto with two outs in the ninth to give Brooklyn the 3-2 victory. (He pitched once more in the Series in relief and then never appeared in another Major League game.)

a.) Bobo Newsom b.) Bill Bevans   c.) Cuddles Marshall   d.) Charles “Butch” Wensloff

In the 1952 World Series, this Yankee infielder speared a bases-loaded Dodger pop fly at the last possible moment to preserve a Yankee lead (and eventual victory) in the seventh inning of Game Seven. The following year, his walk-off hit won Game Six and—at the same time— yet another World Series title against the Dodgers.

With a huge showing in the Game Six clincher of the 1977 World Series, Yankee Reggie Jackson became the first player to ever do this in World Series history. For an extra two points, can you name the only other player who has done it since? (The second player was not a member of the of the Yankees or Dodgers when he did it.)

In 1963, the Dodgers had a slash line of only .214/.279/.350, but still managed to sweep the Yankees out of the Series. Naturally, Sandy Koufax (2) and Don Drysdale (1) got three of the four wins. Who got the fourth win for the Dodgers? Hint: he famously pitched the deciding game in their first-ever World Title in 1955, blanking the Yankees 2-0 in that one.

The first-ever walk-off grand slam in a World Series game took place in a Dodgers-Yankees contest. Who hit it?

In the 1949 meetup between the Yankees and Dodgers, the Hall of Fame trio of Joe DiMaggio (2-for-18), Phil Rizzuto (3-for-18) and Yogi Berra (1-for 16) had a rough go, leaving it to this player—who once addressed this very body—to lead the New York regulars with a slash line of .500/.571/.917.

If you really want to see who had a great World Series, check cWPA (Championship Win Probability Added) on baseball-reference.com. The two men who had the highest numbers in this all-important category for in the 1978 Dodgers-Yankees match-up was this unlikely New York keystone combo, who both hit over .400 with CWPAs of 18.43% and 14.93%. (For comparison, Reggie Jackson was 8.43% and Graig Nettles was -17.38%.)

General stuff (3)

Seven: 1941, 1947, 1949, 1952, 1953, 1955 and 1956

Eight: 1941, 1947, 1949, 1952, 1953, 1956, 1977 and 1978

Giants and Yankees: 1921, 1922, 1923, 1936, 1937, 1951, 1962 

The First Time (4)

1941

Pete Reiser

Joe Gordon

Mickey Owen

The Last Time Before This Time (7)

1981

Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Bill Russell, Ron Cey

George Frazier

Dave Winfield

Larsen’s Perfect Game (8)

Game 5

Sal Maglie

Jackie Robinson, PeeWee Reese, Duke Snider, Gil Hodges, Roy Campanella

Mickey Mantle

The Rest of Them (9)

Bill Bevans

Billy Martin

Hit five homers in a Series. Chase Utley, 2009 Phillies

Johnny Podres

Freddie Freeman, Friday night (Oct. 25, 2024)

Dr. Bobby Brown

Bucky Dent and Brian Doyle

 

September 2024 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

As the season winds down and playoff races heat up, eighteen chapter members and guests chatted about everything baseball at the September chapter meeting.

By virtue of having won the previous chapter quiz, quizmaster Jerry Miller thought of some of the biggest moments in baseball history and turned his attention to the footnotes. He challenged us with 13 multi-part questions.

Jim Baker (pictured above, left) emerged victorious with 16 points (out of 34), followed by Jan Larson with 13 and Mike Dillon with 12. For prizes, Jerry presented vintage team posters; Jim claimed the Mets and Jan, donning a sharp Chicago White Sox cap, chose the Southsiders.

Take a swing at Jerry’s quiz by downloading this document (note: the answer follow the quiz): Jerry Miller’s September 2024 quiz

This was the 214th consecutive month with a chapter meeting, a streak that dates to December 2006.

MVP contests over, or not?

I conducted an informal poll of the group to find out which players they thought would win the AL and NL MVP awards. There continues to be strong support for the Yankees’ Aaron Judge and the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani for their respective league awards, but some have suggested that other players may challenge them. I wondered what our group thought with about two weeks left in the season.

Support was overwhelming – but not unanimous – in our group. Judge and Ohtani both received 14 out of 16 votes (87.5%). The Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. and the Mets’ Francisco Lindor each received one vote. One participant wrote in the Royals’ Freddy Fermín and the Dodgers’ Miguel Rojas.

We won’t know until November whether we got it right. We’ll also find out how well (or not!) we did in Ryan Pollack’s Awardatron contest, in which we tried to predict the major award winners before the start of the season.

Bailey Hall poster presentation win and beyond

As you know, chapter member Bailey Hall won best poster presentation at SABR 52 last month for her study evaluating which is worse, leadoff walks or leadoff singles. She’s also been featured in Ben Lindbergh’s Effectively Wild podcast on FanGraphs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2204-is-a-leadoff-walk-worse-than-a-hit/

But that’s not all! Ryan Pollack shared that Bailey earned high praise as an aspiring saberist by Tom Tango, senior data architect for MLB and creator of the WAR framework and metrics such as wOBA, FIP, and Leverage Index:

http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/leadoff-walk-v-single

And! Because of the attention her poster received at SABR 52 and online, she’s been invited to contribute to North Side Baseball, a blog about the Chicago Cubs. Her first contribution, in which she focused her leadoff single/leadoff walk study on the 2024 Cubs, was published online Sept. 4: https://northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/chicago-cubs/which-is-more-costly-for-the-2024-cubs-leadoff-singles-or-leadoff-walks-r1089/

Congratulations, Bailey!

Dispatches from SABR 52

I asked Bailey Hall and Mike Lassman, both of whom attended SABR 52 in Minneapolis, to share their impressions of the annual national convention.

By Bailey Hall

Hey everybody! Bailey here, and my family and I just went to our first ever SABR national convention, and so I figured I would give everyone a little review! I won’t be able to tell y’all all the cool things we did, so I’ll just focus on the best parts.

The conference was three days in downtown Minneapolis, and every day was filled with tons of events like baseball games, panels, research talks, happy hours and so much more! We had an amazing time, and let this be a PSA to everyone that we should all go next year because it’s in Dallas, so I’m sure more of us might be able to attend.

The first day had some amazing panelists including a Twins hitters panel with Tony Oliva and Rod Carew and a Twins pitchers panel with Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat, Glen Perkins, and LaTroy Hawkins. The hitters panel was unbelievably cool because we got to hear from some of baseball’s greatest hitters of all time! They talked about being roommates for 11 seasons, the harsh realities of being players of color, and the process of being inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

They commented on Reggie Jackson’s recent appearance at Rickwood Field, and they both agreed with Jackson’s assertions about playing in a segregated world. Lastly, we went to the pitchers panel, which I think was my favorite. They commented on pitchers getting hurt more and more, basically saying that there wasn’t much to be done to stop injuries. They said that since pitchers know they can pitch faster and faster, the risk of injury won’t slow them down. Instead, they said medicine needed to learn how to make injuries “recoverable” and make it easier to get back into the game, especially if a pitcher’s shoulder blows out.

That night, we went to a St. Paul Saints game, and we loved it! The stadium was beautiful, with this cool glass structure holding up the suites that gave it a very futuristic feel. The Saints won, and I will say that by the end of the game, my parents and I were downright freezing! Minnesota is no Texas :). The next morning, we went to another panel of the Saints’ office staff. It was really interesting to hear how running a Triple-A team is different from a major league team because the focus is more on entertainment than purely baseball. They mentioned their most successful theme nights that attracted tons of press, most notably bobble-foot night for the anniversary of “Footloose” and a food fight night. Later that day, I got to go to the Twins front office and learn about things that are run there, which was very interesting. I learned about the player development side of the business and how to translate the hard statistics to digestible and tangible things to work on from the coaching side. We also went to a Twins game after that, where the Twins won and they played fireworks after the game!

On the last day, I heard probably my favorite talk given by a fellow SABR member titled “Where did the 24 Minutes Go?” by David W. Smith, and it explained how MLB was able to cut down game time in recent years. I then had to go answer questions about my poster because it was time for the poster Q&A, and I met some really nice people who had really interesting questions! My poster was about leadoff walks versus leadoff singles, and it was really fun to be able to debate with everyone about it. The conference commenced with closing ceremonies like the trivia championship, awards and closing thoughts from the SABR board.

Overall, I had a wonderful time in Minneapolis and at the conference, and I highly suggest anyone who hasn’t been to attend at least one just to see what it’s all about!

By Mike Lassman

The Society for American Baseball Research conducted the 52^nd edition of its convention from Aug. 7 to 11, in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Attendees from across Canada and the U.S. visited the Twin Cities to partake in discussion, analysis, baseball history and analysis.

Baseball-Reference sponsored the welcome reception. Fans in attendance discussed the Oakland to Sacramento to Las Vegas movement. Where else would you discuss the organization movement, but also go back in time to talk about the 1922 St. Louis Browns club that featured sluggers George Sisler and Ken Williams?

The reception was just the start of a very memorable convention. Attendees were able to walk to Target Field to see the Guardians and the Twins and take a bus to see the Columbus Clippers play the St. Paul Saints. Both the Minnesota Twins and St. Paul Saints organizations took immense pride by providing tremendous panel members from both front offices.

Twins Hall of Famers Tony Oliva and Rod Carew participated in a hitter’s panel. Oliva and Carew were roomies for 11 years. After Carew made it to the big leagues, he told Oliva that he would end up with more batting titles than Oliva. Despite the prediction, Oliva helped his roommate tie his first tie on a road trip. Carew was so inspired that he would wear the same tie for three years on road trips without adjusting the tie. Oliva talked about his resilience. The Twins released the future Hall of Famer and Oliva went back to Cuba prior to making it to the major leagues. Both Oliva and Carew told delightful stories about their time in the big leagues. Carew talked about Calvin Griffith promising him the second base job when Carew was playing in the Carolina League. The Twins were one of the first teams to charter flights instead of commercial ones.

Bert Blyleven briefly interrupted the dialogue and asked what the panel knew about hitting. Eventually, Blyleven, Jim Kaat, LaTroy Hawkins and Glen Perkins started their pitching panel. Whitey Ford graciously taught Kaat how to change his grip on a fastball. Blyleven received similar mentoring from pitching coach Marv Grissom who placed a chair next to Blyleven so that he would land correctly. The pitchers commented on the different conditioning that pitchers did in the old days. Kaat discussed analytics by commenting that players should be data informed instead of data driven.

The agenda included a fantastic panel on women in baseball. Melissa Ludtke spoke about her attempt to gain access to the Yankees and Dodgers during the 1977 World Series. Despite the teams permitting access, Bowie Kuhn did not allow it. Reggie Jackson provided accommodation by allowing Ludtke to interview him in his automobile on the way to a game. Eventually, a judge ordered equal access for female reporters.

The convention concluded with Hornsby Chapter member Bailey Hall winning the Poster Presentation Award regarding leadoff hits and walks. Congratulations, Bailey!

Minor League Baseball News

Andy York, a Round Rock Express season ticket holder, shared news from the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate that the 2025 schedule includes series against teams from the International League: the Toledo Mud Hens (Triple-A affiliate of the Detroit Tigers), the Charlotte Knights (Triple-A affiliate of the Chicago White Sox) and St. Paul Saints (Triple-A affiliate of the Minnesota Twins). The Dell Diamond will host the Mud Hens from April 1 to 6, 2025. The series against the Knights and Saints will be on the road.

Cool Baseball Stories

Cool Baseball Stories is a new feature in our newsletter to give members a chance to share an interesting recent experience. This month, we hear from Syd Polk, a former Oakland A’s season ticket holder, and diehard Cardinals fan Monte Cely, who traveled by train with his son between Busch Stadium and Wrigley Field.

By Syd Polk

On Sept. 7, I flew out and said goodbye to the Oakland-Alameda Coliseum, and the Oakland incarnation of the Athletics.

I went to a handful of games before from 1988 to 2000, and then got season tickets for the playoffs in 2000 through the 2006 season, when I moved to Texas. Those Moneyball A’s were so much fun, and the Moneyball game was the most fun I have ever had at a ballpark.

On Saturday night, the weather was perfect, the crowd was big enough to be fun but small enough not to be annoying. The A’s lost 2-1 to the Tigers, but you can’t have everything.

And having old friends there with me was fantastic.

By Monte Cely

My son Matt and I (pictured above, Monte on the right) traveled to St. Louis to see the Cardinals-Rangers series at Busch and on to the Cubs-Cardinals series in Chicago.  A highlight of the trip was traveling from St. Louis to Chicago by train.

Traveling by train for an away series is popular for Cards and Cubs fans.  We took the “Texas Eagle” from downtown St. Louis to Chicago Union Station.  We were an hour late leaving as Amtrak had to hook up extra passenger cars for the many Cardinals fans.  Cubs fans piled onto the train at stops in Illinois.  Riding the rails was a comfortable and fun experience.

In Chicago, we took the “L” (elevated train) Red Line from our hotel to “The Friendly Confines.”  We enjoyed walking around Wrigleyville and had lunch outside the park before the day game.  The restaurant was about 60/40 Cubs/Cardinals fans.  It’s a “friendly rivalry” with a little trash talk about how poorly both teams were playing.  Cubs fans are also really bummed out about the White Sox and were very anti-new-stadium for the South Side.

After the day game, we went to a popular indoor mall to look for gifts.  There was a Harry Caray Restaurant on the top floor, so we had dinner there.  Once settled at our table, I looked around and realized Cardinals 1B Paul Goldschmidt and his family were sitting right behind us!  We didn’t want to bother them, but several young kids rushed up to talk with him.  He was very friendly and gracious to them and their families.  The waitress told us he usually just walks in with his family, no private reservations.

We flew home from O’Hare the next day.  As they say in the Midwest, “A good time was had by all!”

Mike Vance’s second part of duology

You may recall when book author and Dierker Chapter member Mike Vance visited with us in April to promote the publication of the first part of his baseball duology. He’s just published his second part.

https://www.sabrhornsby.org/2024/04/wingos-story-in-baseball-plus-early-season-drama-featured-in-april-meeting/

“Wingo’s Redemption,” the second and final part of Mike’s Wingo baseball historical fiction duology, is now available on Amazon.com and on the author’s website.

Mike shared the description on the back of the book jacket:

116-year-old Rube Wingo recounts another half century of his remarkable life, beginning with a personal tragedy that compels him to leave New York City to pick up the pieces in Cincinnati. His friendships, new and rekindled, and his ill-fitting attempts to again find love surround his behind-the-scenes roles with baseball’s oldest franchise and one of its newest ones–all amidst a backdrop of seismic changes in the game and in American society.

At an age when most people are considering retirement, Rube must reinvent himself one last time, starting with deciding what is most important in his life. After decades of following his dreams, he’s forced to face hard truths about himself and the game which he so dearly loves.

From consummate history storyteller Mike Vance comes the conclusion of Wingo’s captivating and hysterical romp through an American century of life, love, race and baseball.

Here is the praise for the book:

“Mike has a passion for history and baseball. He is an accomplished writer with an active imagination.” – Larry Dierker, MLB All-Star player, manager and broadcaster

“Wingo’s Redemption is simply a great read… a first-class yarn spun by a storyteller and writer at the top of his craft.” – Chris White, Acclaimed author and internet humorist

In pursuit of 25 points: Pavin Smith misses history, Kyle Schwarber makes it

By Jim Baker

This past Sunday night (Sept. 8), Pavin Smith of the Diamondbacks had hit three home runs by the fifth inning against the Astros, including a grand slam, a solo shot and a three-run homer. All he needed to become the first player in Major League Baseball history to hit a home run cycle was a two-run blast. (Only two minor leaguers have ever done this; both from the Texas League. Tyrone Horne did it in 1998 for Arkansas and Chandler Redmond did it two years ago for Springfield.)

The big chance came in the top of the seventh inning. Eugenio Suarez singled to start the inning, but Smith, facing Hector Neris, struck out swinging. Smith was slated to bat second in the ninth inning as well, but this time, Suarez hit a home run off of Josh Hader, meaning there would be no home run cycle. There was still a chance at immortality for Smith, though, as a round tripper would put him in the elite company of players who hit four homers in a game. Only 17 men have done this, including six Hall of Famers.

Instead, he walked. This left him one more shot at joining a select group: those with 25 simple fantasy points in a game (calculated as one point for every total base, run scored, run driven in, walk, hit by pitch and stolen base). Smith stood at first base with 24 points. meaning a stolen base (something he literally does once a year) or a run scored would put him over the threshold.

And yes, this threshold was created by me. I wanted to know which players had most productive games in history and I wanted to do it in a way that would not require any math other than addition. Twenty-five seemed like a good milestone number and the list was born. So far as I know, it’s been done 89 times by 87 players (more on that in a second.) If 89 seems like a lot, consider this: since 1902, there have been 3.3 million player starts in major league games. That number is even higher when you include the 19^th century. Now the feat seems a lot more impressive, no?

Pavin Smith was wiped out on a double play and ended the game one point short of joining this select group. Had he homered and walked instead of striking out and walking in his last two plate appearances, he would have joined an even more elite group: those with 30 points in a game. Only 11 men have ever done that, the latest being Adolis Garcia last season.

Though Smith fell just short—while still enjoying a career game the likes of which the vast majority of players will never come close to matching—just a few weeks ago a player did it for the second time in the space of a month! On September 3, Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies hit his third home (and fourth extra base hit) in the ninth inning, a three-run shot that gave the Phillies a 10-9 win over the Blue Jays. It also put him at 25 points on the night to match his score from August 7 against the Dodgers. (One headline after the Blue Jays game read “Schwarber career night leads Phillies” which made me wonder if the headline writer had already forgotten what he’d done four weeks prior.)

With this performance, Schwarber became only the second player to hit the 25-point threshold twice, the other being hitting legend Lou Gehrig, who did it in 1928 and again in 1932 (meaning he had two of the first 11 in history; he also had a 24-point game in 1930). But Schwarber did it twice in the space of just 25 games, which is nothing short of miraculous!

Furthermore, Schwarber’s contributions in these games were mostly essential. A great majority of the players who get 25 points in a game do so in service to a blowout. In 60 percent of the games, the player’s team scored 15 runs or more. Schwarber’s pair were two of the 12 games in which the player’s team scored 10 or less (it’s only been done three times in losses). Only eight of the winning games were settled by two runs or less.

Next meeting – World Series Watch Party!

The October meeting will continue a longtime chapter tradition – the World Series Watch Party at Jim Baker’s house in Cedar Park!

More details to come at the beginning of October, but the watch party will be the evening of Saturday, Oct. 26. Depending on scheduling, it will either be World Series Game 2 or Game 4. We won’t know until the conclusion of both League Championship Series.

More details and a call for RSVPs to come.

August 2024 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

The August meeting featured a book author detailing how a pitcher’s inspiring dream to play in Major League Baseball was delayed by a tour in Japan. The day after the meeting, the chapter got big, big news about one of our own from SABR 52 in Minneapolis.

Seventeen chapter members and guests joined via Zoom on Saturday to hear award-winning sports writer, editor and multimedia journalist Aaron Fischman tell the story of Tony Barnette, a pitcher who didn’t know if he’d ever achieve his dream to pitch in MLB when he signed a lucrative contract to join the Tokyo Yakult Swallows in Nippon Professional Baseball (spoiler alert: he made MLB later, pitching for the Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs).

Fischman read passages from his book, “A Baseball Gaijin: Chasing a Dream to Japan and Back,” which was published in June. He also shared how he connected with Barnette, then a minor-league pitcher when Fischman was a student journalist in college. He kept in touch with Barnette and subsequently featured him in a graduate school magazine article, laying the groundwork for this book.

The book goes beyond Barnette’s experience in Japanese baseball, Fischman said, by exploring the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, which led to the nuclear disaster in Fukushima in 2011, shortly after Barnette arrived in Japan.

Fischman also shared that sports agent Don Nomura, who wrote the book’s foreword, features prominently in Barnette’s story and provides great insight into foreigners who play baseball in Japan.

Here’s the full presentation and interview:

Fischman’s book can be purchased on amazon.com and other booksellers. In addition, Fischman said those who purchase the hardcover edition of the book will be entered for a chance to win two signed baseball cards by Barnette and a second, signed hardcover of the book if they send proof of the book purchase to Fischman (email: aaronfischman519@gmail.com) by Aug. 17.

Many thanks to Aaron Fischman for joining us on Zoom!

SABR 52 and congrats to Bailey Hall!

Congratulations to chapter member Bailey Hall for her poster presentation at SABR 52 in Minneapolis! Her poster, evaluating whether a leadoff walk is worse than a leadoff hit, won top poster presentation at SABR 52! You may recall that she shared her early findings on this topic at the Hornsby Chapter’s 18th Annual Bill Gilbert Winter Meeting in January.

Bailey’s poster caught the attention of many attendees and those on social media, including Bill James and Mike Petriello! Way to go, Bailey!

She and fellow member Mike Lassman, who also attended the convention, have been invited to share their impressions and experiences at the conference in next month’s newsletter.

SABR 52: David W. Smith, Bailey Hall win 2024 convention presentation awards

Bailey also let chapter members know that the Hornsby Chapter was recognized for All Star status for achievements by the chapter, which includes chapter governance requirements (such as a leadership election and chapter bylaws adoption), holding regular meetings in-person and online, and publishing a newsletter, among other items.

SABR chapters honored for exceptional performance in 2023-24

The chapter leadership is thrilled with this news and wants to thank all chapter members for their involvement and participation!

New newsletter feature: Cool baseball stories!

Do you have a cool baseball story that happened to you this season? Want to share it with your friends in the Hornsby Chapter and beyond? This may be perfect for you! Please reach out to Gilbert D. Martinez (gmartinez46@mac.com) with a brief description of your cool baseball story (write in first-person and limit your story to no more than 300 words, please) and accompanying photo if available.

Baltimore Orioles superfan Ryan Pollack kicks off this new feature.

Ryan Pollack: I met Colton Cowser, starting outfielder for the Baltimore Orioles!

I was in Houston for a (unfortunate) 5-1 Orioles loss to the Astros on June 22nd. Afterwards, my friends and I headed to El Tiempo for dinner. Who should be there but starting outfielder Colton Cowser? He was sitting one table over with a bunch of his family, many of whom were wearing Cowser jerseys themselves.

Despite being nervous, I was decked out in full Orioles gear so I figured he’d at least see me coming as a “friendly”. As I approached, his family members indeed noticed my O’s gear and waved me over. I ended up chatting briefly with Colton, shaking his hand and complimenting him and the team on the incredible season so far. 

The loss of the game (and eventual 3-game sweep) hurt, but meeting and talking with an actual Oriole for the first time in my life is a memory I’ll never forget. Colton currently has a .799 OPS along with 95th-percentile defense. He’s among the favorites for the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year.

Gilbert D. Martinez: In July, I had a great backpacking trip with some longtime friends at Olympic National Park, where we saw bald eagles and momma bear with two cubs (but that’s another story). In addition, we saw the Astros’ Yordan Alvarez hit for the cycle against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park, which was pretty cool. But the really cool thing was when Astros first baseman Jon Singleton noticed me in my orange Altuve jersey waving my glove as he returned to the Astros dugout. The Ronel Blanco pitch was grounded by Mariners’ Luke Raley to Jose Altuve who threw it to Singleton for the third out at the bottom of the fourth inning. Then, Singleton tossed it right to me! Score it 4-3-G!

World Series watch party – mark your calendar!

MLB recently announced the postseason schedule which, luckily, does not impact our plan to have the World Series watch party at Jim Baker’s house in Cedar Park on Saturday, Oct. 26.

For the first time, MLB has flexible start dates for the World Series, which is scheduled to begin on Friday, Oct. 25. However, if both the NLCS and ALCS are completed by Oct. 19 (meaning that each series is completed by Game 5), then the World Series would begin on Tuesday, Oct. 22.

So, the World Series watch party would either be for Game 2 or Game 4, depending on the above. NL and AL pennant winners are yet to be determined.

What’s not in doubt is that the watch party, a longtime chapter tradition hosted by Predictatron impresario Jim Baker, is the not-to-be-missed event of the year. Mark Oct. 26 on your calendars now!

Next month’s meeting

In the last full month of the season, we return to an in-person meeting to discuss the playoff races, our Predictatron ballots and awards predictions at 1 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 14, at Hurricane Grill & Wings (2701 Parker Dr., Round Rock).

A meeting reminder will go out at the first of the month. Hope to see you at the September meeting! We have a lot to talk about and celebrate!

July 2024 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

On a pleasant overcast afternoon with a constant, refreshing breeze, seven chapter members watched the San Antonio Missions drop their last game before the All-Star break on Sunday.

The Missions lost 4-2 to the Amarillo Sod Poodles, managed by former Astros, Mets and Dodgers infielder Tim Bogar. The game featured Missions catcher Brandon Valenzuela, who was named the June MiLB Player of the Month, and Sod Poodles first baseman Matt Beaty, who’s played with the Dodgers (2019-21), Padres (2022) and Giants and Royals (2023).

During the game, Cy Morong had a trivia question for the group. He noticed that Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees had back-to-back months (May and June) with an OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of 1.350 or better.

Only three other players have achieved this in back-to-back months. One player did it multiple times, including a time with three consecutive months. Another player did it twice and one more did it once. Can you name them?

Ira Siegel was able to name one of the players after Cy mentioned that he particularly wanted to pose the trivia question to me. If you know who my favorite baseball team is, then the hint may help you, too.

You can find out who the players are and more on Cy’s recent blog: https://cybermetric.blogspot.com/2024/07/players-who-had-at-least-1350-ops-in.html

 

Mike Lassman, who joined us at the Missions game, shared that he’ll attend SABR 52 from Aug. 7 to 11 in Minneapolis. Any other chapter members planning on attending? Please let Gilbert know. For more information about SABR 52, go to this link: https://sabr.org/convention/

After the Missions game, Andy York, who lived in San Antonio in the 1980s and ’90s, invited us to join him at Tong’s Thai Restaurant, a favorite of his. He particularly recommended the restaurant’s fried spring roll. A few of us enjoyed a post-game early dinner.

Though the season is more than halfway done, teams, players and fans pause for the All-Star break and ponder what went right (and wrong) in the first half of the season and dream of what may be for the remainder of the season. The same can be said of the chapter’s two prediction contests: Predictatron, in which chapter member and mere mortals attempt to foresee the season’s outcome, and Awardatron, in which we try to anticipate baseball’s award winners.

800 CREDIT SCORE

By Jim Baker

We come to the All-Star break much as we’ve played the season to this point: with Mr. Rogers increasing his contest lead and Ms. Martinez and Mr. Gay battling it out for control of the Raeanne Martinez Division.

On the former front, the lead has grown yet again as Mr. Rogers summoned up 25 more points to become the first player to crack the 800-point barrier in 2024—an achievement in both the world of personal credit and in Predictatron. In so doing, he increased his overall lead to 42 points on his nearest competitors, the aforementioned Ms. Martinez and Mr. Gay, who come to the break tied for first place in the division not currently being dominated by Mr. Rogers.

Mr. Robinson remains hot on the trail of the two divisional leaders, trailing them both by just two points, while in the Rogers Division, the race is for second place these days and Mr. McNulty is ahead, two points in front of third-placer Mr. Dillon, but a staggering 58 (!) points behind Mr. Rogers.

It was a good week in scoring news as only one player lost points and all but five experienced double-figure gains. Leading the way was our first-time Player of the Week, Mr. Wancho, with 27 points. This afforded him a two-place jump from seven to fifth in the Rogers Division. Mr. Rogers, Mr. Martinez, and Mr. Siegel all added 25 points to their scores as we posted a 16-point gain on average.

Why all the increased pointage? Well, for one thing, we’re down to just nine teams costing us in double figures with just one of them costing us in the twenties:

-21 Marlins
-19 White Sox
-18 Guardians
-15 Phillies
-14 Royals
-14 Red Sox
-12 Brewers
-11 Blue Jays
-11 Rangers

The Red Sox are relatively new to this list as they have played their way well out of our predicted range with their recent hotness.

There will be no update for the short week, so the next time you get one of these broadsides it will be two weeks from now and it will cover about 40 percent more games than usual. It is possible, therefore, that there will be some bigger upheavals in the standings to look forward to.

Through games of Sunday, July 14 (the All-Star break), or 59.6 percent of the 2024 season:

Awardatron Update

By Ryan Pollack

First things first! It’s All-Star break month. Beginning on the 15th and ending on the 18th, Awardatron participants will have the chance to change ONE (1) preseason award pick. 

AL MVP

Your favorites: Soto, Julio Rodríguez, Rutschman

Current favorites: Henderson, Judge, Soto

Well, what can I say about Henderson that hasn’t already been said this year?? Aaron Judge is continuing his super-hot hitting streak. And while Henderson hasn’t quiiiiite kept pace with the stick, he HAS been outclassing Judge in the field and on the basepaths. These differences have Henderson and Judge projected for a nearly-even 9.4 and 9.2 fWAR. Soto is of course having an excellent offensive season as well, and his defensive value is similar to Judge’s, but he’s not a good baserunner and his position is less valuable. 

Other names to watch: Witt Jr., Kwan, Air Yordan 

NL MVP

Your favorites: Betts, Acuña Jr., Freeman/Turner/Harper

Current favorites: Ohtani, Marte, Lindor

Ketel Marte’s baaaaaaaaack! Marte broke out in a big way in 2019, hitting .329/.389/.592 with 32 dingers and average defense at second for 6.3 WAR. It was his age-25 season and you could’ve been forgiven for thinking he was about to rocket up to the top of the game. Well, from 2021-23 he hit .273/.350/.469 with 51 HR and his defense slipped to well below average. Good numbers, to be sure, and no one will turn down a 2-3 WAR player. But it probably wasn’t what he or the Diamondbacks had in mind after 2019.

Well perhaps he was just biding his time, because so far this year he has been tremendous, hitting .288/.356/.512 with 17 HR and much improved defense. And he’s doing it in a year where offense has cratered, so when you compare him to replacement level, he’s racked up 3.8 WAR already and there’s still half a season to go. 

Other names to watch: Freddie Freeman, Harper, Elly de la Cruz

AL Cy Young

Your favorites: Burnes, Kirby, Gausman

Current favorites: Skubal, Burnes, Lugo

Seth Lugo!??!?! The Mets reliever?? That was my reaction anyway. Yes, the 34-year-old former Met and Padre is having a career year. He’s accrued 2.7 fWAR already, just 0.1 WAR below his single-season high of 2.8 that he set with San Diego last year. His strikeout and walk rates are roughly the same as compared to last year. What’s happened is that he’s giving up fewer hits on balls in play, and he’s stopped giving up dingers. 

Regarding hits on balls in play, you’ll recall from last month’s email that major league average is in the .280-.290 range. Lugo’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .266. Because pitchers generally can’t control what happens when a ball enters the field of play, we expect this number to regress to the mean, which will increase Lugo’s ERA a bit. 

The other major change? Lugo’s HR/9 has dropped from 1.2-ish to a stingy 0.7. There’s some signal here — his Hard-Hit rate (per Statcast) is down from 44% to 39%, and his barrel rate is down from 9.6% to 7.4%. 

And hey — remember what I talked about last time? The percent of runners pitchers stranded? Lugo’s is at a sky-high 85%. 

Overall, Statcast and FIP think Lugo’s ERA should be in the 3.50 range, not 2.17 where it currently is. That’s still good, but not Cy-worthy. But we’ll see. Regardless, he’ll end up with a career year, and at age 34 no less. Happy for him.

Other names to watch: Houck, Gilbert. (I refuse to put Crochet because I don’t think he’ll pitch as much for the rest of the year.)

NL Cy Young

Your favorites: Strider, Gallen, Yamamoto

Current favorites: Sale, Webb, Glasnow

Chris Sale pitching like it’s 2015 makes me happy. The man spent so many years injured and/or ineffective, I thought he was really done. But he clearly isn’t. Unlike Lugo, Sale’s 2.71 ERA isn’t a mirage. His K-BB% is a sterling 27.8%, he’s getting tons of called strikes and whiffs, his Hard Hit rate is 30%, and his Barrel rate is a stingy 5.9%. Somewhere, someone is cutting up a White Sox jersey in glee. 

Other names to watch: Wheeler, Suarez, Gray 

AL Rookie of the Year

Your favorites: Holliday, Carter, Langford

Current favorites: Cowser, Mason Miller, Wilyer Abreu

I MET COLTON COWSER!! Not kidding. He was sitting at the next table with about 10-12 friends and family (not teammates that I could see) at a Mexican restaurant in Houston. It was a couple hours after the Orioles’ loss to the Astros on Saturday, June 22nd. I was in town, decked out in O’s gear, with several friends and we’d just been to the game. After we sat down to eat, I glanced at the next table and immediately recognized him.

At first, I was too chicken to say hi. I was just geeking out to my friends. (I am an introvert by nature.) But one of them went over and said hi to him, kind of showing me that I could too. So I walked over, and as I did, a couple of (what I’m guessing were) his relatives noticed my O’s gear and started chatting with me. They encouraged me to go speak with him, so I did. It was amazing. His mom thanked me for being respectful!! Wow.

Other names to watch: David Hamilton, Luis Gil, Justin Slaten

NL Rookie of the Year

Your favorites: Yamamoto, Chourio, Jung Hoo Lee

Current favorites: Ortiz, Jackson Merrill, Yamamoto

The Curse of Preseasons Award Predictions has claimed Strider, Acuña Jr., Betts, and now also Yamamoto. The Japanese rookie went down on June 16th with a strained rotator cuff. Shoulder injuries are no joke for pitchers so I was pretty bummed. Apparently now he’s pain-free, which is good. Let’s hope he returns soon.

In the meantime, Jackson Merrill (who is from Baltimore!) has come on strong. He slugged .360 in April and May but turned it up a notch in June, slugging a ridiculous .650. Put another way, in April and May he hit 3 HR combined. In June?? He hit 9. Yes, 9. He’s an above-average defender in center field, which is saying something since he was a shortstop before this year, and has added value on the basepaths. Joey Ortiz is on the IL as well, so Merrill may be the frontrunner.   

Other names to watch: Michael Busch, Masyn Winn, Jacob Young 

AL Manager of the Year

Your favorites: Servais (Mariners), Hyde (Orioles), Quatraro (Royals)

Current favorites: Vogt, Servais, Cora

Well, in the last couple of weeks the Royals have stumbled somewhat. FanGraphs now gives them just a 35% chance at making the playoffs, which is down from the 50%-ish spot they were in a little while back. It’s a long season, folks. In the same timespan, Alex Cora’s Red Sox have shaken off their early-season underperformance and are now seen as the favorites for that third Wild Card spot, with a 41% playoff chance. 

I would like to think that Hyde is in the running this year… and maybe if the Orioles win the division, then Hyde will finish in the Top 3. But the Guardians’ preseason expectations were way lower than the Orioles’.

NL Manager of the Year

Your favorites: Counsell (Cubs), Shildt (Padres), Bell (Reds) / Roberts (Dodgers)

Current favorites: Murphy, Shildt, Thomson

Murphy’s Brewers continue to run the table on the NL Central, while Counsell’s Cubs have gone in the opposite direction and now sit in the cellar. 

Mike Shildt’s Padres are doing way better than anyone expected. I think most thought that after losing Soto and Snell, the Padres would falter somewhat. Instead, they acquired Dylan Cease and have the first NL Wild Card spot. Go figure. 

Next meeting on Zoom on Aug. 10

Aaron Fischman, the son of Jerry Miller’s friend and author of “A Baseball Gaijin: Chasing a Dream to Japan and Back,” will join us at 1 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 10, via Zoom. The book, published in June, tells the story of Tony Barnette, who pitched six seasons for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows from 2010 to 2015 in Japan followed up by four seasons with the Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs from 2016 to 2019.

To register for the Zoom meeting, please go to this link: https://txstate.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZcsduqgqT8sEtUHOS5NVQEG4h87PhnraBlJ

For the second consecutive year, the Hornsby Chapter will travel to San Antonio for a Missions game at Nelson Wolff Municipal Stadium.

The Double-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres, the Missions will host the Amarillo Sod Poodles, affiliate of the Arizona Diamondbacks, at 1 p.m. Sunday, July 14. 

I have purchased two tickets in Section 200, Row V, Seats 11 and 12, which are shaded seats.

If you’d like to join us, please use the following link to purchase your own tickets: https://mlb.tickets.com/?orgId=53849&agency=MILB_MPV&eventId=19913&tfl=#/event/E19913/seatmap/?selectBuyers=false&minPrice=8&maxPrice=30&quantity=2&sort=price_desc&ada=false&seatSelection=true&onlyCoupon=true&onlyVoucher=false

Hope to see you at the ballpark later this month!