Rogers Hornsby Chapter

It’s June, and we said, “What about breakfast at Rudy’s?”

Our next Hornsby Chapter monthly meeting brings us together at an earlier start time, 9:30 a.m., Saturday, June 14, for an inviting selection of breakfast tacos and self-serve beverages on the covered patio of Rudy’s Country Store, just off TX 360 at Stoneridge Road (drivers may notice the Shell station first).

Ryan Pollack will host our trivia quiz, and I’m pretty sure the 2025 Colorado Rockies will not be any of the correct answers. It’s sure to be intriguing where this month’s quiz goes. We will also have insight on the field for Omaha and the 2025 Men’s College World Series by that time.

While seating should be open in the 9:30 a.m. window, hitting the mobile-friendly RSVP form helps us know who and how many to expect, especially if you are joining us for the first time (or first in a while). We’ll see you there!

June 2025 Monthly Meeting RSVP form

Rogers Hornsby Chapter Annual Report (2024-2025)

Society for American Baseball Research
Rogers Hornsby Chapter (Central and South Texas)
Annual Report, June 2024 – May 2025

By Gilbert D. Martinez
Chapter Commissioner

The SABR Rogers Hornsby Chapter continues to provide members with a wide range of monthly activities, volunteer opportunities and in-person and online interactions related to many facets of baseball.

The chapter’s biggest event was the 19th Annual Bill Gilbert Winter Meeting at Texas State University in January, which featured former Major League pitcher Ross Ohlendorf and longtime broadcaster and chapter member Mike Capps. Also joining the winter meeting was Rylan Kobre, manager of public relations and broadcasting with the Round Rock Express. A long-time winter meeting tradition, a mock Hall of Fame vote was conducted and trophies for the winners of Jim Baker’s regular season and post-season Predictatron contests were presented. In addition, member Tom Thayer presented a research project that offered a new way of evaluating catchers. Members Jerry Miller, Jan Larson, Frank Rechtorovic and Nicole Bryan-Hall also presented at the winter meeting.

At SABR 52 in Minneapolis, chapter member Bailey Hall won top poster presentation at the annual conference. Her poster evaluated whether a leadoff walk is worse than a leadoff hit.

For SABR Day on Feb. 1, Texas State graduates Remle Herzberg, the social media manager for the Texas Rangers, and Aaron Peralta, who worked on the social media team for the Seattle Mariners and Cincinnati Reds, joined the chapter via Zoom to share their career experiences with chapter members and Texas State students.

In a Zoom meeting in August, award-winning sportswriter, editor and multimedia journalist Aaron Fischman, author of “A Baseball Gaijin: Chasing a Dream to Japan and Back,” told the story of Tony Barnette, a pitcher who didn’t know if he’d ever achieve his dream to pitch in MLB when he signed a lucrative contract to join the Tokyo Yakult Swallows in Nippon Professional Baseball. He later went on to pitch for the Texas Rangers and the Chicago Cubs.

The year also included outings to Minor League Baseball games such as the Round Rock Express on May 17 for Star Wars Night and the San Antonio Missions in July. The chapter also added a supplemental meeting in February with an outing to UFCU Disch-Falk Field in Austin to watch the Texas Longhorns host the Dartmouth Big Green.

We also had chapter members thrice host a monthly meeting – Ryan Pollack in June, Jim Baker in October for our World Series Watch Party and Bailey Hall, Nicole Bryan-Hall and Brian Hall in April.

In the summer, the chapter was awarded $250 for meeting specific benchmarks and achieving All Star status. With the national SABR office’s help, the chapter now has a bank account. The chapter leadership team approved $125 to purchase gifts for the baseball memories programs. As of May 2025, $60 has been used for two large table-top baseball puzzles and a catalog of baseball-themed word scrambles for the baseball memories program, leaving $190 in the bank account.

In the second year of a three-year term, Chapter Commissioner Gilbert D. Martinez continued to serve on the chapter leadership team with directors Jan Larson, Monte Cely, Ryan Pollack and Jerry Miller. In June, chapter member Don Dingee joined the leadership team as membership director. Cely, Pollack, Miller and Dingee will continue as directors in the coming year while Larson will step down. For his many years of service, we thank Jan Larson, who was a founding member of the chapter in 2005 and has long served on the leadership team, leading chapter outings to Whataburger Field’s owners’ experience and running the mock Hall of Fame voting at the winter meeting for many years.

Baseball Memories Program

By Monte Cely

Hornsby Chapter Director

In May 2015, Hornsby Chapter volunteers led by Jim Kenton started SABR’s first chapter-supported baseball reminiscence program in partnership with Alzheimer’s Texas. Reminiscence, recalling pleasant memories of the past, has proven to be an effective way to enhance the quality-of-life of those dealing with dementia, chronic health problems, isolation, or loneliness. Since then, the number of programs using baseball as a reminiscence topic has grown both locally and nationally.

Chapter members led by Larry Rice in San Antonio have started a new program at the Audie Murphy Memorial Veterans’ Administration Medical Center there, as well as continued the popular program at the Kerrville Texas VA Medical Center. Volunteers in the Austin metro area have continued their program at the AGE of Central Texas adult day care center in Round Rock. On a monthly basis, these three programs are reaching 35 to 50 participants. Fourteen SABR members, as well as spouses and other relatives, actively volunteer for these three programs.

There are plenty of opportunities to get involved in this valuable community service program. In addition to plenty of baseball (of course), we also add music, video, history and other sports in order to invoke a broad range of pleasant memories from a diverse audience. If you’d consider volunteering, have an idea for a new program in your community, or just would like to learn more, contact Monte Cely at cely@swbell.net or Larry Rice at ukisno1@gmail.com. Information is also at our chapter website at: https://www.sabrhornsby.org/baseball-memories/

Membership Report

By Don Dingee

Hornsby Chapter Membership Coordinator

SABR Hornsby extends along a 376-mile-long swath of Texas from Waco to the Rio Grande Valley, including territories of three MiLB teams (one AAA and two AA). Ninety-two percent of our members live in one of four metro clusters: Austin, San Antonio, San Marcos and Waco/Temple/Killeen. We currently stand at 221 consecutive monthly meetings thanks to our active members. Highlights for the period ending May 15, 2025:

Growth – 89 primary members, compared with 84 in 2024 and 82 in 2023.
Engagement – In-person meetings at various restaurants or member homes average 15 attendees, a 16.9% “active” member level. Game outings average seven attendees. Virtual or hybrid meetings average 26 attendees, drawing on an additional 43 affiliate members and non-members in event-specific outreach.
Retention (excluding students) – 88.1%, compared with 91.6% in 2024 (SABR 2024 national average: 91%).

Thirty percent of our members have 10 or more years of SABR tenure, with three-quarters of our members being 50 and over. Our member Survey cites monthly meetings, Predictatron, Awardatron and baseball discussions in our Hornsby Google Group as essential social interactions. It also indicates a desire to see younger members at meetings — we are tailoring outreach and engagement efforts with the 35-49 and 18-34 age groups in mind.

Comets top Express at May meeting that featured barbecue and Star Wars

May 2025 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

Thirteen chapter members and guests proved to be not so lucky for the hometown Round Rock Express, which hosted the Oklahoma City Comets on Star Wars Night at the chapter’s May meeting on Saturday.

After an early 2-1 lead, the Express did not strike back after the Comets plated six runs in the fifth inning, streaking their way to a 7-3 win. A key statistic that told the story of this game was team batting with runners in scoring position. The Comets excelled here, going six-for-eight while the Express went one-for-six, leaving 10 runners on base.

After the game, fans were treated to a Star Wars-themed drone show that depicted characters, scenes and audio clips from the movies and shows. The best one may have been the one with Grogu (aka Baby Yoda) levitating a baseball!

We also enjoyed a visit from Express General Manager Tim Jackson.

Linda Nichols had the best shoes at Dell Diamond — a new pair of Keds sneakers stitched like a baseball! Well done, Linda!

Before the game, chapter members and guests enjoyed a barbecue dinner at the Salt Lick.

SABR Webinar: Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe & the Hall

You may have seen the invitation to join a Zoom webinar at 6 p.m. (Central Time) Wednesday, May 21, about MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred’s decision to remove Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson and other members of the Chicago Black Sox and others from baseball’s permanently ineligible list. The discussion will also focus on sports gambling and the players’ newfound eligibility for election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

The webinar will feature Don Van Natta Jr., Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter with ESPN, Keith O’Brien, author of “Charlie Hustle: The Rise and Fall of Pete Rose, and the Last Glory Days of Baseball,” and Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs senior writer and author of “Cooperstown Casebook: Who’s in the Baseball Hall of Fame, Who Should Be In, and Who Should Pack Their Plaques.” The webinar will be moderated by Jacob Pomrenke, who is on the SABR Black Sox Scandal Research Committee.

In 2024, O’Brien joined the Hornsby Chapter for a Zoom meeting on SABR Day to talk about “Charlie Hustle.” O’Brien, a New York Times bestselling author, award-winning journalist and SABR member, reminded us of Rose’s great baseball accomplishments and his poor choices and gambling addiction that derailed his legacy.

Attendance is limited to members of SABR. Click here to pre-register for this Zoom event.

SABR 53 DFW

Have you registered for SABR 53? It’s not too late! Here’s the link for more information about the annual conference from June 26 to 29 in the Dallas-Fort Worth area: https://sabr.org/convention/2025/registration

Among the 32 research presentations are one by a chapter member and another who shared details about his proposal at the chapter’s SABR Day meeting earlier this year.

In a research presentation, Hornsby Chapter member Eric Bynum will discuss the Waco Navigators, which won three consecutive Class B Texas League titles from 1914 to 1916, including a controversial decision related to the shared title with the Houston Buffaloes in 1914. His presentation will be at 11:30 a.m. Thursday, June 26.

Also, Brenden Gilbreath, a law student at Texas Tech School of Law, will describe his proposal to MLB and the MLB Players Association to award annual benefits to the families of Negro League veterans in a presentation called “Heroes Get Remembered, but Legends Never Die: Properly Recognizing the Contributions of Negro League Veterans.” His presentation will be at 10 a.m. Thursday, June 26. Gilbreath shared an early draft of his proposal at the Hornsby Chapter’s SABR Day meeting on Feb. 1.

Here’s a link to all presentations: https://sabr.org/convention/sabr53-presentations

Cool baseball stories: A minor league ball wrapped in memories
By Don Dingee

Before I started elementary school, my grandmother bought the former one-room schoolhouse next door to my parents’ house in Churchtown, NY. Over several summers, “Eddie the carpenter” added a kitchen, bathroom, pumphouse, furnace room, and a rear porch, and finished out two bedrooms and the front porch. He often had a radio with the Mets on while working, and mentioned a few times that he pitched in the Dodgers’ system.

I would see Eddie Yasinski occasionally in Hudson, where he also worked as a mail carrier and umpire. He was right over my shoulder behind the plate for the last game I played in high school. When I joined SABR and started thinking about a writing project, Eddie came to mind, and what I found was a fascinating story. His biography is in the Minor Leagues Research Committee Spring 2025 Newsletter.

His daughter, Susan, better known as guitarist Susan SurfTone, was of immense help, providing photos and anecdotes. When I shared the published version with her, she said, “Send me your address, I have something for you.” Soon, a baseball in a plastic case arrived by mail, signed by Eddie, manager and former major leaguer Al Brancato, future major leaguers Art Cecarelli and Gabe Gabler, former major leaguers Clyde McNeil and Rudy Rufer, and most of the players on the 1953 Elmira Pioneers, the Dodgers’ A affiliate.

Susan related that after Eddie passed away in 2017, she found five similarly signed baseballs from Eddie’s various minor league stops, with two labeled “Eastern League,” which made me feel a bit better that she wasn’t parting with an heirloom. It’s a precious gift that has joined my small baseball memorabilia collection.

Do you have a cool baseball story that happened to you this season? Want to share it with your friends in the Hornsby Chapter and beyond? This may be perfect for you! Please reach out to Gilbert D. Martinez (gmartinez46@mac.com) with a brief description of your cool baseball story (write in first-person and limit your story to no more than 300 words, please) and accompanying photo if available.

Predictatron Update: Gay leads the way
[Note: Jim Baker shared this Predictatron update with the email list on May 12.]
By Jim Baker

We have a new leader heading into the quarter turn of the season in the person of Mr. Gay. Previously satisfied to lead just the Brian Rogers Division, he has now unseated previous overall leader Mr. Windham as well. All is not lost for the rookie upstart, however, as he has maintained his lead in the Eric Robinson Division in spite of coughing up the big lead.

It was a very positive week for most players as we averaged a 33-point gain. This helped push the number of players at or past the 700-point mark to eight. The biggest week was turned in by Mr. Harrell, who rang up 57 points, enabling him to climb from ninth to fifth in the Robinson Division. This makes him our Player of the Week. You will probably remember that Mr. Harrell won this award no less than seven times in 2024—a truly staggering number that had never before been achieved. Is the first of seven for 2025? Stay tuned.

In the Rogers Division, Mr. Rechtorovic the Younger also had a big showing, missing the Player of the Week award by just one point. This allowed him to progress from tenth place all the way up to fifth. Team Hall also broke the 50-point barrier on the week, jumping from seventh to third in the process.

With one-fourth of the season gone, here’s a look at the least-costly and most-costly picks so far. Note that there are 19 individual-team perfect scores.

	Least Costly		Most Costly
	Player/score	loss	Player/score	loss
Baltimore	Wancho 79	-17	Robinson, Seigel, 90L	-55
Boston	Polk, Larson, Windham 85	0	Miller 94	-9
NY Yankees	Miller 92	-1	Larson, Dingee 84	-9
Tampa Bay	McIntosh 73	0	Bass 58	-15
Toronto	R. Martinez, Gay 81	0	Siegel 71	-10
Chi. White Sox	Bass 47L	-3	R Martinez, Walsh 63L	-31
Cleveland	G Martinez 95	-2	McNulty 76	-17
Detroit	Dingee, Siegel 91	-12	Rogers 78	-25
Kansas City	Bass 93	0	Dillon, Baker 80	-13
Minnesota	6 tied with 83*	0	Dingee 74	-9
Houston	Dingee, Larson, McIntosh 83	0	G Martinez 93L	-20
LA Angels	Siegel 66	0	Polk 51	-15
Athletics	Dingee 84	-1	Polk 67L	-32
Seattle	Dingee & Polk 89, Siegel 93	-2	Windham 83	-8
Texas	Bass 78	-1	Crombar 92L	-26

Atlanta	G Martinez 86	-9	J Rechtorovic 96L	-38
Miami	F Rechtorovic 62	0	Barnes 69L	-13
NY Mets	Polk 97	-6	Harrell 84	-19
Philadelphia	G Martinez, Polk 96	-1	Robinson 86	-11
Washington	J Rechtorovic 67	0	Harrell 57L	-20
Chicago Cubs	Dillon 90L	-2	Polk 78	-13
Cincinnati	Baker, Walsh 77	0	McNulty, Harrell, Wancho 86	-9
Milwaukee	Dillon 79	0	Siegel 94L	-30
Pittsburgh	G Martinez 70	-15	Dingee 82	-27
St. Louis	Barnes 84	-3	Bass 58	-29
Arizona	J Rechtorovic 83	0	Polk 96	-13
Colorado	J Rechtorovic 55	-27	McIntosh, 62L	-67
Los Angeles	Larson, F Rechtorovic 105L	-3	Pollack, R Martinez 97L	-17
San Diego	Barnes 92	-12	Pollack, Rogers, Larson 82	-22
San Francisco	Bass 83	-12	Crombar 76	-19
	*Barnes, Polk, Dillon, Larson, F Rechtorovic, Siegel

As we pause to comprehend the folly that is the 2025 Colorado Rockies so far, consider that the best score for them in our group is costing its owner 27 points! The team with the lowest most-damaging score is Seattle at -8. If you see an ‘L’ next to a player’s pick in this chart, it means it’s their Lock. A Lock in the Least-Damaging column is a truly impressive feat, given the double jeopardy the Lock brings with it. There are only three such picks on the board so far.

It’s interesting to see the same players on both sides of the ledger, proving once again that predicting the outcome of baseball seasons is nowhere near an exact science. You probably already knew that, though.

Through games of Sunday, May 11, or 25.0 percent of the 2025 season:

	PLAYER	Points	PB	Last	^/v	prev	move
1	Scott Gay	726		701	25	1	0
2	Don Dingee	710	16	699	11	2	0
3	Team Hall	709	17	657	52	7	4
4	Jim Baker	703	23	661	42	6	2
5	John Rechtorovic	699	27	643	56	10	5
6	Mike McNulty	695	31	674	21	4	-2
7	Kevin Barnes	694	32	652	42	8	1
8	Tom Wancho	693	33	682	11	3	-5
9	Brian Rogers	681	45	648	33	9	0
10	Gilbert Martinez	678	48	667	11	5	-5
11	Ryan Pollack	663	63	619	44	12	1
12	Syd Polk	651	75	625	26	11	-1

	PLAYER	Points	PB	Last	^/v	prev	move
1	Bob Windham	723		704	19	1	0
2	Frank Rechtorovic	715	8	668	47	4	2
3	Mike Dillon	707	16	679	28	3	0
4	Jerry Miller	700	23	693	7	2	-2
5	Mike Harrell*	693	30	636	57	9	4
6	Jan Larson	687	36	644	43	6	0
7	Gary McIntosh	685	38	657	28	5	-2
8	Ira Siegel	681	42	641	40	7	-1
9	Michael Bass	670	53	631	39	10	1
9	Dan Walsh	670	53	628	42	12	3
11	Raeanne Martinez	667	56	621	46	13	2
12	Eric Robinson	663	60	630	33	11	-1
13	Chris Crombar	652	71	637	15	8	-5
	*Player of the Week

Awardatron Update
[Note: Ryan Pollack shared the following on the group email list on April 21, nearly a month into the season.]
By Ryan Pollack

Greetings & salutations, all! Your first Awardatron update is coming a tad early, as I will be busy next week. The season’s young, but let’s check in on the awards favorites so far.

AL MVP
Frontrunners: Judge, Witt Jr., Henderson

Henderson has started slowly, with a batting line of just .228/..267/.439 (103 wRC+ — meaning his park-adjusted offense is 3% better than league average). And his plate discipline is all messed up, with just a 5% walk rate against a sky-high 33% K rate.

As Orioles fans, we’re leaning on two positive facts to start the year. One, he’s hitting the ball extremely hard (64.9% Hard-hit rate per Statcast). Two, he missed a month of spring training with an intercostal strain and so may just be one of those guys who needs the reps. The projection systems remain confident in him, as do us Baltimore fans (dear lord knows we need something to hope for after this miserable start to the year).

NL MVP
Frontrunners: Tatis Jr., Ohtani, Betts

Fernando Tatis Jr. is fulfilling the promise he made when the Padres signed him to that mammoth extension several years ago. He has been consistently excellent since then, but teammates like Machado and Soto have overshadowed him, and his scandal-fueled couple of years didn’t help. Now, however, he’s off to a stunning .358/.436/.631 start (209 wRC+, meaning his park-adjusted offense is 109% better than league average) with 8 HR and 7 SB. Oh and he’s playing above-average defense in the outfield.

The most impressive thing is that he’s struck out a minuscule 12.8% of the time — significantly better than the league-average strikeout rate of 22.5%. He’s also walking the same amount, and to walk as much as you strike out is pretty much Juan Soto / Kyle Tucker territory. It seems there is a new National League right fielder on this list!

His career high in WAR is 6.8, set in 2021; he already has 1.9 this year. Sky’s the limit.

AL Cy Young
Frontrunners: Crochet, Skubal, Ragans

Crochet has looked every bit like the ace Boston thought they were getting when they not only traded for him, but signed him to a crazy extension. His 1.13 ERA is being held up by an unsustainably low home run rate and an unsustainably high baserunner strand rate, but his expected stats and peripherals point to an ERA in the high 2’s or low 3’s, not some ghastly number. Although Crochet is emphasizing his sinker more than 2024 and has added break to his cutter, his calling card remains his fastball. Batters are slugging .175 against it despite seeing it almost half the time.

NL Cy Young
Frontrunners: Skenes, Wheeler, Webb

Skenes looks even better to start his first full season. Although his strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is also down (from 6.2% to 3.4%, and so is his hard-hit rate (from 36.3% to 32.5%). Right now he’s basically Greg Maddux (career 4.9% walk rate) except, you know, he throws 98 MPH and has a 93 MPH splitter.

AL Rookie of the Year
Frontrunners: Kristian Campbell, Jacob Wilson, Jack Leiter

Pretty much no one was saying anything about Jacob Wilson (shortstop for the Athletics) to start the year. At least, not that I heard of. Well — that’s changed now. He sports a park-adjusted offensive line that’s 52% better than major league average, and although I’m honestly not sure how park adjustments in Sacramento are being done this year, that’s still very good. Breaking it down, he has a super weird batting line of .354/.354/.500 with 2 HR and 1 SB. Fascinatingly, he has zero walks and has struck out only 3.4% of the time. He’s not hitting the ball hard (2.5% Barrel rate), so it seems he’s shaping up to be another Luis Arraez type, who sprays singles all around the field because he’s adept at squaring up the baseball.

But crucially, unlike Arraez, Wilson is a good defender at a premium position. According to Statcast, he’s in the 82nd percentile for range and 77th at arm strength. Because of this, if he can maintain even a league-average batting line, he can be really valuable.

NL Rookie of the Year
Frontrunners: Dylan Crews, Thomas Saggese, Zac Veen

The NL ROY crowd is pretty thin. But so far, Thomas Saggese has fired up the Cardinals with a .400/.389/.600 batting line. That .422 wOBA is obviously not sustainable but even his .342 xWOBA would be very good for a rookie. And combined with above-average defense up the middle (he’s a second baseman / shortstop), you have the makings of a potential breakout in St. Louis.

AL Manager of the Year
Frontrunners: Hinch (Tigers), Bochy (Rangers), Schneider (Blue Jays)

The Tigers are 13-9 with a +24 run differential to start the year, 7th best in MLB. Given how they ended last year, I think many expected them to do better this year, but the fact they’re out in front counts as a mild surprise. Skubal hasn’t really looked like Skubal yet, but he’s still excellent, and Spencer Torkelson is fulfilling his prospect potential with a park-adjusted batting line 93% better than league-average. Their playoff odds have increased 27 points, most in the big leagues so far, from 37% to 64%. Those are the kinds of positive surprises that get managers awards.

NL Manager of the Year
Frontrunners: Counsell (Cubs), Melvin (Giants), Shildt (Padres)

The Cubs were something of a disappointment last year. Well — not so much this year. Their playoff odds have increased 18 points, from a right-on-the-bubble 56% to a close-to-a-sure-thing 74%. Kyle Tucker has been astounding to start the year with a park-adjusted batting line 76% better than league average — pretty much right where he landed last year. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been not-terrible at the plate, which when combined with his superlative defense in CF and baserunning, has given him 1.2 WAR already. Although Justin Steele is out for the year, Colin Rea, Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon have helped keep the rotation afloat. Boyd and Imanaga are getting a little lucky, but the games they’ve helped win are in the books, so it doesn’t matter as much.

Next meeting
In June, we’ll have a breakfast/brunch meeting at 9:30 a.m. Saturday, June 14, at Rudy’s Bar-B-Cue on Capital of Texas Highway in Southwest Austin. Look for a call for RSVPs early next month.

In July, we’re headed back to watch the San Antonio Missions (Double-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres) host the Amarillo Sod Poodles (Double-A affiliate of the Arizona Diamondbacks) at 7 p.m. Saturday, July 19. More details to come in early July.

May game outing to see the Express on the 17th will feature Star Wars Night

Our 222^nd consecutive monthly meeting is planned for our second game outing in 2025, this time to see the Round Rock Express take on the Oklahoma City Comets at Dell Diamond on Saturday, May 17, game time 7:15 p.m. It’s Star Wars Night in the park, with two chances for Hornsby members to socialize that evening:

Some members gather for an optional dinner at the Salt Lick BBQ adjacent to Dell Diamond. Salt Lick policy is only to seat complete parties, so we ask members and their guests to RSVP using our mobile-friendly form for an accurate headcount and arrive by 5 p.m. *sharp*. An added benefit of early arrival is free parking in or near the Salt Lick parking lot, and after dinner, it’s a short walk over to the stadium.
Game attendees should purchase their tickets via the Round Rock Express site. We are eying a block of seats down the right field line in section 125, rows 16, 17, 18, and 19, seats 16-24 (with 24 being an aisle), where tickets are $23 each. Purchase seats as soon as possible to ensure being close to the group.

Dell Diamond is cashless, and card or mobile device payments are accepted for parking and at all concession booths. Join us on Saturday the 17^th – significant others and kids are welcome. Where else will you get lightsaber lessons, a drone show, and baseball?

RSVP for the Salt Lick BBQ PreGame

Purchase tickets for the Express-Comets game

Baseball trivia, a new wins-by-payroll stat and barbecue lunch fill April gathering

April 2025 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

Fifteen chapter members – including three attending their very first Hornsby Chapter meeting – enjoyed a pleasant spring day and barbecue lunch provided by the family of Nicole Bryan-Hall, Brian Hall and Bailey Hall in Central Austin on Sunday.

We extended a warm welcome to James Navarro, who is new to the Hornsby Chapter, formerly with the Rocky Mountain Chapter; Clayton Hsiung, who is an exchange student at the University of Texas at Austin and from Taiwan; and Jeff Latimer from Martindale.

Co-host Brian Hall spent weeks crafting a trivia quiz for this month’s meeting with a hodgepodge of questions that focused on baseball in recent years and introduced a new statistic that tracks teams’ opening day payrolls divided by wins.

Newcomer Clayton Hsiung took top prize (and a pair of socks, pictured above, featuring his favorite team, the Texas Rangers!) with 28 points, while Ryan Pollack took second with 25 points (winning a Jose Altuve votive candle). They are pictured above (ClaytonWhile they were the only contestants with scores in the 20s, Ira Siegel had 18 points; James Navarro and Jerry Miller had 17; and Gilbert Martinez had 16.

Click here to take your swing at Brian Hall’s baseball quiz.

Click here for the answers: Brian Hall’s baseball quiz — key.

To learn more about his new statistic, click here.

For the list of players that have had Tommy John surgery, click here.

Many thanks to the Halls for their generous hospitality and challenging quiz and to everyone able to join us, especially the new members!

Speaking of trivia…

As you probably know, SABR 53 will be June 25-29 at the Westin DFW Airport in Irving! And the Hornsby Chapter is looking to put together a trivia team. Planning on attending and want to join our trivia team? Please reach out to Chapter Commissioner Gilbert D. Martinez.

Also, make note that early bird registration for SABR 53 ends April 25. Click this link for more details about registration, hotel, scheduled speakers and events: https://sabr.org/convention/

Hopes run high as Predictatron begins anew!

[Note: Jim Baker shared the first Predictatron update of the season with the email list on April 6.]

By Jim Baker

Sunday, April 6, 2025, edition

IT’S ALL TOO REAL NOW!

And so it begins: another season of Predictatron futility, exuberance, frustration and joy. The contest with the impossible mandate of predicting an entire baseball season is underway once more.

Breaking out on top is Team Hall, pacing the field with a score of 291 points. As you would imagine, Team Hall is also our first Player of the Week. They lead the Brian Rogers Division by 29 points over Mr. Wancho after the first go-round. Not too far behind them is Eric Robinson Division leader Mr. Dillon, who comes out of the starting blocks with 289 points. His closest pursuer is Mr. Harrell, who is just 10 points off the mark. Those blessed with keen memories will remember that Mr. Dillon came within three Yankee World Series wins of taking not only this contest, but our postseason tourney as well. If this first week’s performance is any indication, he’s trying to make up for that close loss.

Mr. Rogers, our defending champion, is showing the effects of his offseason spent celebrating his victory and making the rounds of the banquet circuit as a much-sought-after lecturer, stumbling out of the chute 81 points off the leader. As we well know, though, no lead is safe at this early point in the season. In his attempt to defend his own division, Mr. Robinson finds himself in the middle of the pack.

With 25 participants, this is our largest field ever. We are welcoming two new players this year, Mr. Barnes of the Rogers Division and Mr. Windham of the Robinson. In the battle for the mythical Rookie of the Year title, the latter leads the former 245 to 224 for starters. Watch this space for updates on that particular rivalry.

When one submits a ballot to a contest of this sort, one never knows how far removed one is from the collective group think of all the contestants. One way to measure it is to compare this year’s submissions to last year’s standings. Perhaps the safest thing to do would be to simply submit last year’s standings as your ballot for this year. If that were the case, you would have a perfect score of 1,000 in the following chart. This reckoning, known as “Mild or Wild” does just that: gives each player a score comparing their ballot to last year’s standings. The higher your score on this chart, the ”milder” your ballot is; the lowest scores are, therefore, the “Wildest.”

Mild or Wild 2025

Note that the average and median are both around 840. Which approach is best? We shall see…

897	Gilbert Martinez
894	Kevin Barnes
869	Jerry Miller
866	Scott Gay
864	Ira Siegel
860	Team Hall
858	Mike Dillon
858	Bob Windham
853	Gary McIntosh
851	Jim Baker
851	Eric Robinson
842	Don Dingee
841	Mike Harrell
839	John Rechtorovic
839	Syd Polk
835	Brian Rogers
832	Mike McNulty
830	Frank Rechtorovic
829	Ryan Pollack
822	Dan Walsh
818	Chris Crombar
815	Jan Larson
809	Raeanne Martinez
795	Tom Wancho
792	Michael Bass

In our next report, we’ll find out which teams we as a group favor for titles, Locks and all that sort of thing.

Through games of Sunday, April 6, or 5.9 percent of the 2025 season:

Brian Rogers Division

	PLAYER	Points	PB
1	Team Hall*	291
2	Tom Wancho	262	29
3	Scott Gay	257	34
4	Mike McNulty	243	58
5	Kevin Barnes	224	67
6	John Rechtorovic	211	80
6	Syd Polk	211	80
6	Jim Baker	211	80
9	Brian Rogers	210	81
9	Gilbert Martinez	210	81
11	Ryan Pollack	208	83
12	Don Dingee	197	94
	*Player of the Week

Eric Robinson Division

	PLAYER	Points	PB
1	Mike Dillon	289
2	Mike Harrell	279	10
3	Jerry Miller	259	30
4	Frank Rechtorovic	257	32
5	Bob Windham	245	44
6	Jan Larson	244	45
7	Eric Robinson	241	48
8	Ira Siegel	237	52
9	Chris Crombar	225	64
10	Gary McIntosh	222	67
11	Dan Walsh	217	72
12	Raeanne Martinez	208	81
13	Michael Bass	127	162

A new season of Awardatron underway!

[Note: Ryan Pollack shared the following on the group email list on March 27, shortly after the start of the season.]

By Ryan Pollack

Happy baseball, y’all! The ballots are in and the season has begun. Yes, I know it began in Japan a couple weeks ago. You know what I mean.

This is the fourth year of the contest and we have a record-high 20 players. Including myself! Yes, I have no special knowledge, no crystal ball, no inside scoop that y’all don’t have. So I’m in the mix as well.

For scoring purposes, I will split us into two divisions. This year we are going with 1950 RoY winners. Yes, you guessed it, that means we will have the Walt Dropo division and the Sam Jethroe division. I have assigned you to these divisions randomly.

Let’s take a look at whom we think will take home the hardware this year:

As a group we are pretty sure BWJ will take home the hardware. I waffled between him and Judge but decided to bet on youth. The rest of the field is split between some familiar faces and names — guys who have flashed excellence and at times finished in high spots but have never won the award itself. (Yordan is on my fantasy team so I would love to see him win the award as well!)

I do so dearly hope that Gunnar wins the MVP. He was the frontrunner for much of last year but, like many of the O’s, tailed off too much to get close in the end.

Here we have another clear favorite! Can you blame folks? I predict fewer stolen bases for Ohtani, but he has shown dominance on the mound in the past, so it’s fair to expect the same from him again this year. (Side note — I’m sorry, but can we just take a moment and recognize that the first 50/50 player in major league history is also a starting pitcher, and a pretty good (at times borderline ace) one at that?!?!!? I … I need a moment to wrap my head around this. Sorry. Talk amongst yourselves. Sheesh).

Scoobs (say that in Shaggy’s voice, please) is the favorite to repeat here. I see no reason why he can’t, which is why I picked him. He’s at peak age and was absurdly dominant last year, by which I mean, did not rely on that much batted ball luck or sequencing to achieve his results. The rest of the field is pretty mixed, with some thinking that Gilbert and Ragans will take the leap, as well as recent extendee Bibee (yes, I made that joke on purpose).

Phenom Skenes is the clear favorite here amongst the group. The young fireballer impressed everyone last year en route to NL ROY hardware. He is projected by many systems and pundits to be the best pitcher in the NL this year. Perennial also-ran Wheeler comes in (naturally!) 2nd place. After that you have a pair of previous award winners in Sale and Snell, and the very-good-but-never-quite-dominant Cease.

The AL ROY field seems wide open. In my opinion nearly all of these guys have some kind of shot, with the exception being, err, Skubal. (Yes, I gave that contestant plenty of time to change their submission. No, they did not.) The two Red Sox prospects — Anthony and Campbell — are why many think the team will do much better this year than in the last couple of years.

The NL ROY predictions are more heavily concentrated around two players — Sasaki and Crews, in this case. Also, someone is clearly hoping the Orioles trade Mayo to the NL prior for an early-season callup. (That someone is not me, not unless we get some amazing haul for him.)

Continuing the Red Sox theme, many here think Alex Cora will win AL MOY. The Red Sox had a very good offseason, so if they make the playoffs convincingly, he might. The next cluster of votes went to Dan Wilson, newly minted skipper of the Mariners. Will he succeed where Scott Servais could not? In my opinion the Mariners still lack the offense to make a run at the division; although, the Astros are probably the most vulnerable they have been in a long time, and the Rangers have holes as well.

Finally, we land on NL MOY predictions. It’s never wise to bet against Terry Francona, as he is an awesome manager and has won the hardware several times before. Can he do it again but this time in a different Ohio city? I’m not personally sure the Reds have enough talent to make a run, but hey, what do I know?

====

Stick around y’all, it’s going to be a fun season — especially in the AL, as there are a significant number of teams with a reasonable shot at the playoffs. I plan to provide updates & commentary towards the end of each month.

Thanks for playing and see ya in about a month!

Next meeting

Our next meeting will be a Round Rock Express game at 7 p.m. Saturday, May 17, for Star Wars Night! More details to come early next month about a pre-game barbecue dinner at Salt Lick and where we’ll be sitting.

April backyard meeting at the Halls coming up on the 13th

The 2025 regular season has begun in earnest with all 30 teams in action. Gold-lettered Dodger unis, a Rays walkoff HR in their rented stadium, and a White Sox win highlighted Opening Day. Every team still has hope, which may change by the time we meet next.

For our 221st consecutive monthly meeting on Sunday, April 13th, at noon (note the slightly earlier start time), once again we have the privilege of gathering at the home of the Halls – Nicole, Brian, and Bailey. For privacy’s sake, it’s in this square, about a mile west of the University of Texas campus.

Lunch will feature hot dogs, chips, and light dessert, as well as bottled water, courtesy of the Halls. Members and guests are encouraged to bring your own beverage of choice. Team Hall is also devising the baseball quiz.

Please RSVP for this meeting – if you need the exact address of the Hall’s home, check Yes to the last question on the form, and we’ll email it directly to you. The RSVP form will be open until Thursday, April 10th.

We look forward to seeing you all there! Yay, 2025 baseball!

21st century home run leaders quiz, season anticipation fill March meeting

March 2025 Newsletter
By Gilbert D. Martinez

On the eve of the new season, 15 chapter members and guests gathered in Round Rock on Sunday to reflect on the off season, to consider our favorite teams’ moves (or inaction) and to look ahead to a new round of prognostication.

While two annual contests have been announced (more details below!), we had one wrap up in February when the last of the big-name free agents, namely Alex Bregman, signed with the Boston Red Sox.

On Sunday, Cy Morong brought a seemingly simple but challenging quiz in which we had to name each MLB team’s home run leader in the 21st century. And he gave us three names from which to make our picks. Congratulations to Ryan Pollack for besting everyone with a score of 25. With 22 points, Monte Cely and Don Dingee tied for second place, with Monte securing the runner-up spot by virtue of the tiebreaker.

For their efforts, Cy presented Ryan and Monte with baseball books to treasure (pictured above, Ryan on the right).

Take a swing at Cy Morong’s Home Run Quiz by clicking here. The questions are on the first page; answers follow on the second page.

Inaugural Contractatron Contest Results

By Ryan Pollack
(Note: Ryan shared this via email on Feb. 14 with the Hornsby Chapter email group shortly after Bregman signed with the Red Sox last month.)

Welp — it’s done. The 2024-2025 Contractatron Contest is complete! All 10 free agents have signed their deals, or so I’m told. And it means baseball is just around the corner.

We will get to the final standings in a minute, but first: Alex Bregman signed a three-year, $120 million contract with the Boston Red Sox a couple of days ago. This is slightly below the reported median guess of $150 million. Let’s see where things shook out.

Mike Cohen had the best score for Bregman. It would’ve been impossible to have a better one, as Mike guessed the $120 million deal exactly. That’s a 0% miss, in case you need reminding. On the other side of the coin, Jerry Miller was off by the most. He predicted a cool $320 million, which tabulates out to a 166.7% miss. Oof! Bregman surely would’ve preferred Jerry’s guessed salary to Mike’s, but alas, it is not to be. However, since Bregman’s deal has a player opt-out after 2025, perhaps he can land that monster deal next offseason.

As you could guess by the median $150 million prediction, we weren’t that far off as a group from what Bregman actually got. As a group we missed by 25%, which is just about the middle of the pack:

For the entire contest, the median miss regardless of player was 33.5%. Not bad for our first year of guessing!

Final Standings

With a final score of 34.9, lowest average miss of the group — JIM BAKER is your 2024-2025 Contractatron winner!!!

Here are the full standings:

Jim’s best score was Teoscar Hernandez, for whom he was 0% off. He was also 1.7% off Bregman’s deal and 8.1% off Santander’s.

His worst was Pete Alonso, for whom he was 103.7% off — but remember this miss was actually good, as it was pretty far below the median miss.

Congratulations to Mike Cohen for a pretty close second-place finish as well.

That concludes our contest… thank you and I’m already looking forward to next year’s! Tell your friends!!

Prediction contests galore!

The Hornsby Chapter has not one but two predication contests for your prognostication pleasure!

Think you know how this season will unfold – or how you hope it unfolds? The choice is yours in Jim Baker’s Predictatron. Though the MLB season kicks off with the Japan Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs this week in Tokyo, the rest of the teams open next week. For winning their divisions last year, Brian Rogers, the reigning champ, and Eric Robinson will have divisions named in their honor. Early in the new season, participants will be randomly assigned to one division or the other.

Details about the contest are in the documents below. Deadline to join is 11:59 p.m. Friday, March 28. Use the links below for rules, instructions and the ballot.

2025 Hornsby Predictatron Rules and Instructions

2025 Hornsby Predictatron Ballot

But that’s not all! Ryan Pollack’s Awardatron Contest is also open for your best shot to name the season’s award-winners for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year. Ballots are due by 9 a.m. (Central Time) Thursday, March 27. Click here for the instructions and to submit your ballot.

Next meeting and beyond

Our next chapter meeting will be at the home of Bailey, Nicole and Brian Hall at noon Sunday, April 13. More details and a call for RVSPs will go out in early April.

We’re planning an outing to see the Round Rock Express (Triple-A affiliate of the Texas Rangers) host the Oklahoma City Comets (Triple-A affiliate of the Los Angeles Dodgers), at 7:15 p.m. Saturday, May 17, which is also Star Wars Night! We’ll have more details soon.

In June, we’ll have a breakfast/brunch meeting at 9:30 a.m. Saturday, June 14, at Rudy’s Bar-B-Cue on Capital of Texas Highway in Southwest Austin.

In July, we’re headed back to San Antonio to watch the Missions (Double-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres) host the Amarillo Sod Poodles (Double-A affiliate of the Arizona Diamondbacks).

Mark your calendar. Hope you can join us!

It’s a mild Hurricane (Grill & Wings) for our March 16 meeting

One of the more interesting developments around Spring Training so far has been MLB measuring player heights to the millimeter to help calibrate the ABS strike zone experiment. More than one player listed at 6′ 0″ is suddenly just a bit shorter, according to the league.

We won’t be measuring anyone’s height, I promise, but topics like ABS are sure to come up in discussions at this month’s lunch with SABR Hornsby friends on Sunday, March 16, 1 pm, at Hurricane Grill & Wings (2701 Parker Dr., Suite D-200, Round Rock).

As always, we’re requesting RSVPs to ensure seating for everyone at the restaurant. Our mobile-friendly Google Form works great to RSVP – just let us know you’re coming, how many people are in your group, your name(s), and if you’re a first-timer to a Hornsby meeting, and hit submit when you’re done.

Please have your RSVP in by Thursday, March 13. Hope you can join us!

Longhorns complete sweep of Dartmouth in chapter outing to college game

February 2025 Newsletter Supplemental
By Gilbert D. Martinez

Seven chapter members gathered on Sunday to watch the Texas Longhorns defeat the Dartmouth Big Green 4-1 on what turned out to be a mild, sunny day at UFCU Disch-Falk Field in Austin.

We watched a tight ball game in which both teams struggled to sustain long innings. Both teams could only muster no more than run in an inning. The difference was that the Longhorns did so in four separate innings and held the Big Green scoreless after they took an early 1-0 in the first inning. On Sunday, the Longhorns completed a three-game sweep of Dartmouth.

Longhorns freshman reliever Dylan Volantis threw 4.2 innings in relief, allowing just one hit and striking out four. Second baseman Ethan Mendoza provided half the offense, going 3-for-4 with a home run and two RBI.

More details about the game can be found on the Longhorns baseball website: https://texaslonghorns.com/news/2025/2/23/no-16-baseball-secures-sweep-of-dartmouth.aspx

Many thanks to Bailey Hall for pitching the idea to catch a college ball game this month. At the game, we talked about making this an annual event.

Caribbean Series 2025 in Mexicali: The 67^th edition of Serie del Caribe builds upon recent successes
By Monte Cely

The Caribbean Series was conceived at baseball meetings in 1948, and the first edition of the international baseball tournament was held in 1949 at the Gran Estadio de Cerro in Havana. After record-setting attendance and interest in Miami in 2024, expectations were high for the 2025 episode. Mexicali did not disappoint, with sellouts, solid play and great weather.

Following are some highlights:

ROUND ROBIN PHASE

The 2025 Series included five teams, the four league champs and an invited team from Japan (a first for an Asian squad):

Charros de Jalisco – Mexico

Indios de Mayaguez – Puerto Rico

Leones de Escogido – Dominican

Cardenales de Lara – Venezuela

Japan – Japan Breeze

The format of competition is a single round robin, with the top four teams advancing to the semifinals. As of the completion of round robin play the standings stood at:

Mexico 4-0

Dominicana 2-2

Venezuela 2-2

Puerto Rico 2-2

Japan 0-4

Highlights and observations from Round Robin play:

The Japan team has been outgunned but are a plucky young team and became fan favorites here with their sportsmanship. At the end of each game, they line up on the base line and bow to the fans and then to the opposing team.

The Mexico pitching and defense have carried them to the top spot so far. They have allowed the opposition only four runs in the four games during the Round Robin Phase.

Attendance has been strong, around 13,000 for the afternoon games and sellouts (17,000+) in the evening when Mexico plays.

Albert Pujols is managing the Dominican team.

Venezuelan pitcher Jesus Vargas threw a no-hitter against Japan, only the third one in Caribbean Series history.

The Stadium (el Nido de los Aguilas – The Eagles Nest) was recently remodeled and is in great shape – comfortable with good sight lines. Dimensions are 330’ to the foul poles and 400’ to CF.

SEMIFINALS

The DR defeated Venezuela 5-4 in 11 innings to punch their ticket to the finals. The game was tied 3-3 after nine and both teams drove in their bonus runner (aka the Manfred Man) in the 10th. Likewise for the Dominicans in the top of the eleventh. In the bottom of the 11th the Venezuelans had runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs but failed to score either of them thus losing the game.

Mexico scored three runs in the bottom of the first and that was all they needed as again the solid pitching and defense for Mexico shut down the Puerto Rico offense. Final score: 3-1. Mexico has won all five games so far and allowed opponents only five runs total.

Former major league speedster Billy Hamilton plays CF for Mexico. He has excited the fans with five stolen bases so far.

FINALS

Escogido (Santo Domingo, DR) defeated Charros de Jalisco (Mexico) 1-0 on Friday night to win the 2025 Caribbean Series. The Mexican squad continued their outstanding defense and pitching but could only muster one hit. There were no RBIs recorded as the one Dominican run scored on a double play.

ALL TOURNAMENT TEAM

Esmil Rogers was the tournament MVP, winning two games for the Dominican team including the final game. The all-stars for the tournament were:

C: Francisco Mejía República Dominicana
1B: Yamaico Navarro República Dominicana
2B: Michael Wielansky México
3B: Kelvin Gutiérrez República Dominicana
SS: Jack Mayfield México
CF: Billy Hamilton México
LF: Rudy Martin Jr. México
RF: Alexi Amarista Venezuela
DH: Danry Vázquez Venezuela
Starting Pitcher: Jesús Vargas Venezuela
Reliever: Trevor Clifton México
Manager: Benjamín Gil México

CLOSING OBSERVATIONS

The Caribbean Series is always a party at the ballpark, and this year was no exception. The author is second from right behind my good friend Juan Antonio from Mexico. The other two “fanaticos” were our “vecinos” (neighbors) at all the games.

The upcoming schedule for the Caribbean Series will be:

2026 – Caracas, Venezuela

2027 – Hermosillo, Mexico

2028 – Miami, U.S.A.

Next meeting

Next month’s meeting will be at 1 p.m. Sunday, March 16, at Hurricane Grill and Wings (2701 Parker Dr., Round Rock). With spring training winding down then, we’ll be gearing up for the 2025 season! Hope you can join us. Watch for a call for RSVPs early next month.

Chapter adds college baseball game to February fun

Join us for a supplemental monthly meeting to see the Texas Longhorns host the Dartmouth Big Green at noon Sunday, Feb. 23!

It’s difficult to know what the weather will be like — it could be frigid, it could be sunny, it could be both! — that’s Texas weather for you!

But if you’d like to join us, use the link below to purchase your ticket. A group of us are sitting in Section 101, Row 13, Seats 3 to 9. This is on the first-base (home team) side of UFCU Disch-Falk Field. Ticket cost ranges from $13 to $15 (not including fees).

Click here to purchase tickets.

Note that closer to the event, public parking can be purchased in advance online for $8 plus taxes and fees, or on site for $10 plus taxes and fees.

Hope you can join us for some February baseball!