Rogers Hornsby Chapter

June 2026 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez
Chapter Commissioner

Four intrepid chapter members gathered to watch the Texas Volts host the Portland Cascade in a second-season match of the Athletes Unlimited Softball League at Dell Diamond on Sunday.

Though the Volts were doused by the Cascade, 5-2, we got to see the Cascade’s Megan Grant, the reigning NCAA Division I single-season home run leader with 42 this past season for the UCLA Bruins. True to form, she notched two home runs, including a two-run home run in the fourth inning, leading Portland to victory.

1977 UCLA alumni Jerry Miller alerted the group to watch for Grant’s big bat, and she did not disappoint (well, she may have disappointed the home fans because, unfortunately for them, Grant played for the visiting team).

According to game notes provided by the AUSL, Grant became the ninth player in AUSL regular season history to hit two home runs in a game, and, after game play on Sunday, led the league with six home runs.

With the loss, the Volts dropped to 3-10 on the season, which runs through July 20. The Volts are one of six teams in the league, including the Cascade, Utah Talons, Oklahoma City Spark, Chicago Bandits and Carolina Blaze.

The Volts took an early 2-1 lead in the first inning on infielder (3B) Jennifer Lis’ two-RBI single. But the Volts struggled against Cascade starter Carley Hoover (1-0) and reliever Kelly Maxwell the rest of the way.

The Hornsby group pondered electric-related puns to play on the Volts name. For example, Jerry wondered if Volts pitcher Ally Carda and catcher Dejah Mulipola would constitute a “9-Volt-battery.”

It was the 235th consecutive month in which the chapter has had a monthly meeting, a streak dating to December 2006.

Awardatron update!
[Note: Ryan Pollack shared his third update of the season in the Awardatron contest to the email list on Tuesday.]

By Ryan Pollack

Baseball fans! It’s so good to write to you again. Can you believe the season is already halfway over?

AL MVP
Favorites: Witt Jr., Alvarez, Kurtz 

Honestly Aaron Judge is still on the list of favorites despite having been on the IL for the past month. But I’m going to go with Nick Kurtz here because the projection systems I’m looking at don’t know that there’s currently no timetable for Judge’s return. Plus, I mean let’s be honest, we’re all tired of hearing about him. Right??

I first heard about Nick Kurtz last year when he hit 4 HR in a game. Before then I, well, hadn’t heard of him. I’d heard of his teammate Jacob Wilson, who’d had a strong start to the 2025 season and was the ROY favorite at the time. He was on nearly all of our ballots after the All-Star Break. But then Kurtz had that amazing game and hasn’t looked back.

Entering today’s game Kurtz has a batting line of .279/.423/.525 with 19 HR and a 159 wRC+. This is slightly below last year’s performance of 170 wRC+; the drop in power is partially offset by an increase in OBP, which itself is driven by an increase in walk rate from 12.9% to 19.4%. Just think about that – nearly 1 out of every 5 times Kurtz comes to the plate, he walks. Major league average is more like 1 in every 11-12 PA’s. Pitchers respect his power and Kurtz is disciplined enough to take what he gets.  

NL MVP
Favorites: Ohtani, Crow-Armstrong, Carroll

I did not think PCA was this good. Last year he walked a paltry 4.5% of the time and slugged an outlandish (for a speedy outfielder) .481 with 30 dingers. His wRC+ of 109 was above average and when coupled with his position and defense made him a very valuable player. But the walk rate told me he lacked the discipline to truly succeed in a sustainable way. 

Well this year PCA has proved me wrong. After a slow start (88 wRC+ in March/April) he hit for a 117 wRC+ in May and then tore the cover off the ball in June with a 228 wRC+. Unbelievable. He’ll end the first half with a park-adjusted batting line ~42% better than league average. And oh yeah he’s also notched 14 outs above average in CF. And he is walking 9.9% of the time, a sharp increase from last year, indicating that his plate discipline is much better and therefore that his offensive gains will stick.  

AL Cy Young
Favorites: Schlittler, Cease, Rasmussen

I haven’t seen any conversation about Drew Rasmussen so I’ll talk about him. The only thing I know about him is that he plays for the Rays and that in 2022, he took a perfect game against us (the Orioles) into the 9th inning. Okay, so that’s two things. 

Rasmussen has a strong ERA at 2.45 but his xERA of 2.96 indicates he’s benefitting from some good fortune. A quick glance at his low .236 BABIP and high 79.8% strand rate confirm the suspicion. Still, a moderate decline would be a win for the Rays and could net Rasmussen a Top-5 Cy Young finish, something I’m sure he’d be proud of at 30 years old and coming off a couple injury-plagued years.  

NL Cy Young
Favorites: Misiorowski, Sánchez, Sale

Well, I have to talk about The Miz, which (because I’m old) makes me think of that guy who was on MTV’s Real World many years ago and who wanted to be (and ultimately became, I think) a pro wrestler. I think you all know the drill – he (Jacob, not the wrestler guy) regularly hits 104 MPH in a game and has passed Paul Skenes for the title of “young phenom who throws really really hard in in NL Central”. Misiorowski is striking out 38.8% of batters, which is top-shelf reliever territory but with a starter’s workload, and walking only 7.2% of hitters. And remember when I said that Rasmussen stranding 79.8% of runners is high? The Miz is leaving a whopping 84.2% of runners on base. But given his strikeout stuff, I’m inclined to believe this rate can be sustained for a whole season.

AL Rookie of the Year
Favorites: McGonigle, Messick, Peters

All I have to say about Parker Messick is that I’m glad he’s doing really well, because when he took a no-hitter into the 9th inning against the Orioles in April I was like “who the f is this guy? I’ve never heard of him before!” And that was back when I still expected something out of the team this season. So now that he’s in the conversation for the AL ROY award, at least I know we weren’t dominated by some scrub but by someone who’s actually talented (not that it matters for our won-loss record at the end of the day).

NL Rookie of the Year
Favorites: Wetherholt, McLean, Rumfield

The Rockies may be on the road to nowhere at the moment, buft you can’t blame TJ Rumfield. The 26 year old first baseman is hitting .294/.372/.491. Playing half his game in Denver means his wRC+ is only 127, but that’s still very good.   

Glancing at Rumfield’s player page for this analysis tells me that he, like yours truly, went to Virginia Tech. So I’ll be rooting for him.

AL Manager of the Year
Favorites: Cash, Vogt, Venable

Since last we spoke, the White Sox have vaulted into first place in the AL Central, if by only one game over the Guardians. They are getting contributions up and down the lineup. Miguel Vargas has broken out with a downballot MVP season at 3.0 WAR already on the strength of a 140 wRC+ (and he’s actually underperforming his batted-ball launch angle and exit velocity). Colson Montgomery is hitting bombs right alongside Murakami, and Chase Meidroth is having a solid season right behind him. On the pitching side, Davis Martin is getting lucky but the results on the field are very good, and Sean Burke is solidifying the spot right behind him.

Projection sites still have the White Sox missing the postseason, but it’s been a fun ride for them to this point, the AL is very weak this year, and there’s plenty of baseball left to play.  

NL Manager of the Year
Favorites: Murphy, Mattingly, Counsell

I’m not sure whether any manager has won the award after his predecessor was fired mid-season, but Don Mattingly could do so with his Phillies. Under his tenure the Phillies have gone from also-ran to solid contenders. After going 12-19 in March and April, they’ve since gone an absurd 35-18. Thomson was fired on April 28th so it’s a very clean correlation from March/April under his leadership to May/June under Mattingly’s. But is it causal? I suppose we’ll never know, but Mattingly’s going to get credit all the same. 

Ironically Thomson himself received similar praise when he took over from Joe Girardi who was fired on June 3, 2022. The Phillies had gone 22-29 to that point but ended up doing well enough after the change to appear in the World Series. Can’t wait to see who replaces Mattingly in May of 2030!

Predicatron update: Walsh tops out!
[Jim Baker shared this update on June 21, the most recent update. Because of his travel plans, his next update is slightly delayed.]

Oh, look at us: scoring points again like we know something about baseball. Aren’t we proud of ourselves and our 25-point per-player average increase?

Well, we should be. It’s quite an accomplishment, especially after last week and some of the other weeks we’ve had to endure in this most trying of seasons.

In any event, we have a new leader in the person of Mr. Walsh. He outpointed previous leader Mr. Robinson 31 to 27, which was just enough for him to take a one-point lead in the contest. Mr. Robinson maintains his grip on the Mike Harrell Division lead, however, one of the 23-point variety over his closest pursuer, Ms. Martinez.

Things are a lot tighter in the Tom Wancho Division, however. Mr. McIntosh and Mr. Gay are eight points back of the lead with our Player of the Week Mr. Pollack just one point behind them. With 36 points, he bested Mr. Dillon (35) and last week’s recipient, Mr. Wancho (34), to carry home the award.

Don’t look now, but the Marlins and Nationals are both over .500, an eventuality that was not on our Bingo cards (or, more accurately, our Predictatron ballots).

The Marlins are only costing us nine points apiece on average, which is not disastrous, but certainly not ideal. The best Miami pick belongs to Mr. Wancho, who said they’d win 82 games. The most-damaging Miami pick is in the hands of Mr. Dillon, who predicted a 59-win season for them. Nobody had them as their Lock.

The Nationals are more of a problem for this contest, hitting us up for 18 points each on average. Mr. Dillon gets some compensation for his Marlins pick here, possessing the best Nats tab on the block at 74 wins. The most-damaging D.C. dosage belongs to Mr. Pollack, who Locked them at 67 wins, which is costing him 32 points at the moment. The least-accurate Washington pick belongs to Mr. McIntosh who foretold a 56-win season for them.

Surely both can’t keep this up the rest of the way, can they? We’re very close to the half-way point and it would be most disruptive to this contest if both or even one of these teams kept this going the rest of the way.

Through games of Sunday, June 21 or 47.6 percent of the 2026 season:

Next meeting

We stick to the ball field for our next monthly meeting, shifting south to Wolff Municipal Stadium, home of the San Antonio Missions!

Please join us at 6:05 p.m. Sunday, July 26, when the Missions (Double-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres) host the Frisco RoughRiders (Double-A affiliate of the Texas Rangers). We’ll soon share a link with ticket location on the email list.

May 2026 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez
Chapter Commissioner

Nine chapter members and guests celebrated Star Wars night at the Dell Diamond on Saturday and watched the Round Rock Express tie the game 2-2 in the 8th inning before falling to the Sacramento River Cats 3-2 in a tight game.

The Express took an early lead in the bottom of the first with a double steal of second by Trevor Hauver and home by Cameron Cauley. But the River Cats jumped ahead on Grant McCray’s two-run home run in the 6th inning. After the Express tied it in the 8th inning with Diego Castillo’s RBI single, the River Cats wasted no time regaining the lead and ultimately the win with an RBI single by Turner Hill in the 9th inning.

Some of us visited with Express General Manager Tim Jackson, who stopped by before first pitch and caught up with the group. He shared that the ballpark is making modifications to the field to accommodate the Texas Volts, the team in the Athletes Unlimited Softball League that will call the Dell Diamond home this summer (See the note in “Next meeting” below for the chapter’s plan to see the Volts host the Portland Cascade on June 28 for the June meeting). Pegs for the bases have been placed in the infield and the temporary fence is ready for the outfield.

Before the game, we gathered at the Salt Lick for a barbecue dinner and caught up on developments in the baseball season.

We pondered the impact of the ABS system. Monte shared that he didn’t like drama injected into the game and the added commentary by broadcasters. He’d rather see full ABS incorporated, eliminating the challenge system altogether. I shared that I think that’s ultimately where we’re head, but Andy disagreed. Andy said he doesn’t want to see the loss of the human element provided by umpires.

We saw a few challenges during the game, including a check-swing challenge, something many of us hadn’t seen yet. A graphic showed a dotted line running near home plate toward first base along with animation showing the path of the bat.

After the game, some of us, including Dick Butler and his son Andrew, visiting from Australia, stuck around for the terrific Star Wars-themed drone show. Fans were also treated to dozens of Star Wars characters roaming the aisles, stands and walkways throughout the game.

Chapter commissioner election results

By Dick Butler
Election Coordinator

The Hornsby Chapter conducted its online election for the office of commissioner between May 8 and May 15.  The results have been tabulated and are now official.  As election coordinator, I hereby certify that Gilbert Martinez was re-elected as commissioner for the next three-year term (2026-2029).  Seventeen (17) votes were cast by members, representing 21% of members eligible to vote.  All 17 votes were cast for Mr. Martinez, the sole candidate nominated in our nomination process.  No blank ballots were submitted.  Congratulations to Gilbert!

Thank you to everyone who participated in the election by voting.  A special thanks to Election Committee members Don Dingee and Ryan Pollack, whose work on the technology ensured that our online voting process went smoothly.  

Commissioner’s first task

I’m very grateful to membership for your support! Thanks also to Dick, Don and Ryan for conducting this election.

My first task as chapter commissioner is to appoint directors to the chapter’s leadership team. Running this chapter takes a group of dedicated and passionate members, so I’m happy to announce the group of directors who will continue to guide our chapter activities and responsibilities.

Ryan Pollack, webmaster/faciliator
Jerry Miller, winter meeting coordinator
Don Dingee, membership coordinator
Dick Butler, election coordinator
Nicole Bryan, at-large

Monte Cely, who’s been a chapter member since its formation more than 20 years ago, is stepping down from the leadership team, but I’ve happy to report that I offered, and he accepted, a role as director emeritus, so that he can stay involved as time allows. He and his spouse, Linda, will be celebrating their 50th wedding anniversary in October and have many hours, days, weeks and months planned with their children and grandchildren. Congratulations to Monte and Linda! Monte will continue to serve as a Baseball Memories coordinator along with Larry Rice. Please join me in thanking Monte for all of his work with the chapter and his continued involvement.

Email list trivia

In recent weeks, some of our members have tried (and failed!) to stump our membership with trivia questions. Here are a few of the questions.

Cy Morong: Who had the most HRs in MLB over the years 1958-62?

Ryan Pollack: Who is the only player in MLB history to have a qualifying season with 0 HR and a qualifying season with 30+ HR?

Gilbert D. Martinez: Jose Altuve’s appearance in the Astros game on April 21 versus the Cleveland Guardians put him at 2,000 career games, good enough for fifth among active players. Who are the four active players ahead of him?

Think you know the answers? Check your work at the bottom of this newsletter. Good luck!

SABR 54 registration now open; early bird discount ending soon!

SABR’s 54th annual convention will be July 29–Aug. 2, 2026, at the Hilton Downtown Cleveland hotel!  

The featured speakers and panelists include:

•    Chris Antonetti, Cleveland Guardians President of Baseball Operations
•    Sandy Alomar Jr., 1990 AL ROY, Gold Glove-winning catcher, and 1997 All-Star Game MVP, White Sox legend
•    Carlos Baerga, fan favorite as a switch-hitting second baseman during his 14-year major league career
•    Tom Hamilton, Cleveland Guardians broadcaster and 2025 Ford C. Frick Award recipient
•    Mike Hargrove, won two AL pennants and 5 consecutive AL Central Division titles as Cleveland’s manager
•    Kenny Lofton, all-star CF who holds Cleveland franchise record for stolen bases, Cubs/White Sox legend
•    Charles Nagy, three-time All-Star pitcher and Cleveland Indians Hall of Fame inductee
•    Paul Hoynes, Cleveland Plain Dealer sports writer and BBWAA Career Excellence Award recipient
•    David S. Ward, writer and director of Major League, who will lead a Q&A session following a screening
•    Sky Andrecheck, Assistant General Manager, Cleveland Guardians
•    Keith Woolner, Principal Data Scientist, Baseball Analytics, Cleveland Guardians
•    Kyle Burris, Director, Research & Development, Cleveland Guardians

Conference and hotel registration for SABR 54 is now available.

THE DEADLINE FOR THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT IS MAY 29.

Click the link to register today: https://sabr.org/convention

Predictatron: The Quarter Turn

[Editor’s note: Jim Baker shared this update with the chapter on May 15.]

By Jim Baker

Believe it or not, a full quarter of the season is on the books. It seems like only yesterday that teams were breaking camp to start the season and yet here we are, wondering where the time went and why we made some of the picks we did way back then.

There were no changes to the uppermost portions of our standings. Slots one through four remain the same in the Mike Harrell Division, with Ms. Martinez holding her lead for a second week and continuing to preside over the contest. The two top spots in the Tom Wancho Division remain in the hands of Mr. Pollack and Mr. Wancho, for whom the division is named, not coincidentally. Mr. Rechtorovic the Elder and Mr. McIntosh were tied for fifth last week, but both had identical 29-point outings and are now tied for third. The biggest standings jumps were made by Mr. Siegel and our Player of the Week Mr. Dillon (for the second time this season). Both moved up three spots with the latter player improving by 53 points to lead us all.

We averaged a 35-point increase this time around as we continue to find our footing after the disastrous week of April 19 showing. On the team front, our new worst enemies are the Tampa Bay Rays, who are costing us an average of 31 points each. Did anybody here predict they’d have the best record in the American League? Show of hands… no? Not seeing any. In fact, only three players even had them finishing over .500. The best Rays pick at the moment belongs to Mr. Rechtorovic the Younger at 85. Even that is costing him 23 points!

It’s time to check in on our Locks, that thing we all love to hate! Let’s start with the positives for a change. Here are the four best individual Lock choices so far:

0 Mike Harrell, Dodgers at 97
2 Eric Robinson, Angels at 64
2 Raeanne Martinez, Twins at 72
2 Mike Bass, Dodgers at 98

Now the best combined Lock score. Not surprisingly, our leader heads up this list:

8 Raeanne Martinez, Twins at 72 and Dodgers at 94
14 Eric Robinson, Angels at 64 and Dodgers at 103
22 Gary McIntosh, Angels at 66 and Rockies at 55
22 Frank Rechtorovic, Angels at 65 and Rockies at 54

There must be a dark side as well, alas. These are the most-damaging individual Lock picks so far:

72 Jerry Miller, Rays at 72
66 John Rechtorovic, Cardinals at 60
58 Ira Siegel, Cardinals at 64

These are the most-damaging combined Locks to date:

104 Mike McNulty, Red Sox at 94 and Cardinals at 66
  92 Ira Siegel, Blue Jays at 90 and Cardinals at 64
  82 Jerry Miller, Rays at 72 and Nationals at 70

The good news is that these numbers are bound to shrink as teams regress to the mean—unless they don’t, which happens sometimes because it’s baseball, right?

Through games of Sunday, May 10 or 25.0 percent of the 2026 season:

Next meeting

Please join us for our June meeting, a return to the Dell Diamond, to see the Texas Volts host the Portland Cascade of the Athletes Unlimited Softball League on Sunday, June 28! More information about tickets and a discount code will go out in a meeting announcement in early June. Hope you can join us!

Trivia answers:
Morong: Rocky Colavito
Pollack: Kirby Puckett
Martinez: (in order from most) Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt

 

April 2026 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

Fourteen chapter members and guests gathered at the home of Nicole Bryan and Brian Hall on an unseasonably cool spring day Saturday, marveling at the early storylines in the just-started baseball season.

One storyline was the debut of 19-year-old Konnor Griffin with the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 3. In fact, this was the inspiration of my trivia quiz about a selection of first hits by teenagers.

The seemingly random nature of the quiz’s 20 multiple-choice questions proved to be an equalizer, giving everyone a fighting chance!

Andy York (pictured above on the right) was one of three participants to earn double figures, but he eked out first place with 11 points, followed by a tie between Cy Morong (pictured above on the left) and Brian Hall (pictured above in the middle) with 10 each. Just off the platform were Raeanne Martinez, Wyatt Walker and Jerry Miller with nine points each.

For his prize, Andy picked “The Unwritten Rules of Baseball” by Paul Dickson. Cy conceded the tie to Brian, so Brian received “The New Yorker Book of Baseball Cartoons” by Robert Mankoff and Michael Crawford, editors.

Brian and Nicole were so thrilled that Brian tied Cy in the quiz that Nicole immediately reached out to their daughter, Bailey Hall, to share the good news.

Many thanks to Nicole and Brian for hosting the meeting and providing delicious Rudy’s barbecue and fixings! Nicole and Brian’s friend Dave joined us and shared that he saw Dallas Braden’s perfect game on May 9, 2010, in Oakland. In fact, mid-game, he said his son was given a foul ball by a fan seated a few rows in front of them. By the fifth inning or so, he said, the crowd was aware that something special was brewing on Mother’s Day.

We also welcomed new member Leah Islam, an Arizona State University graduate who recently joined a baseball fantasy league at work and followed up on joining SABR, something she’s been wanting to do for a while. Welcome, Leah!

Take your swing at the quiz here: Teenage First-Hit Wonders Quiz

Here’s the answer key: Teenage First-Hit Wonders Quiz Answer Key

Don Dingee’s bio project article

Congratulations to Don Dingee, whose biography on Lou Frazier was published in SABR’s Bio Project last month!  Here is the link:  https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/lou-frazier/.

“Lou’s story is about working hard and being in the right place at the right time,” Don shared on the group email list. “It was fun to work with him on this. Thrilled it’s published and off my desk!”

Ryan Pollack’s graph on xwOBA: The Dodgers are absurd

Ryan shared on the email list a graph plotting teams’ offense and defense xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average), an advanced statistic that measures how teams are doing thus far in the season on offense and on defense. It confirmed some conversations we had during the meeting about which teams are doing well and which are struggling, some in both categories.

But the team leading both leagues in both xwOBA for offense and defense by a wide margin is no surprise: the Los Angeles Dodgers. Here’s the graph Ryan put together and shared with the group.

Predictatron Second Week Update: Wancho, Pollack Tied!

[Editor’s note: Jim Baker shared this update including game play through April 12.]
By Jim Baker

Two weeks into our contest and we already have a battle developing. Mr. Wancho and Mr. Pollack find themselves tied for not only the lead of the Tom Wancho Division, but for the contest entire, setting the pace with 624 points. Both made significant gains over the opening update to get where they are today.

Our Mike Harrell Division leader also made a great leap forward. Mr. Robinson was in seventh place in the opening report but tacked on 222 points and climbed all the way to the top of the division. Nobody had a better showing than our Player of the Week Mr. Walsh, though. He padded his score with 269 points and catapulted himself out of the Wancho Division basement all the way up to fourth place.

Most teams are not complying with our desires in the early going and are costing us double-figure deficits. A few clubs immediately began playing the way we said they would, however. They are as follows:

Brewers: We said they’d be just over .500 and here they are, doing just that. Of course, it took a 1-6 week to get them there.

Orioles: For a team that bombed last year, the O’s got a decent amount of love on our ballots for 2026. We said they’d win 84 games, a nine-game improvement over 2025, and they are just about on pace to do that very thing.

Yankees: Another team that had a disastrous week (1-6) to get them right around our group prediction of 90 wins. They’re currently four games below that pace, but it still qualifies for third-best prediction in the early going.

Rockies: Colorado won just 43 games last season and we said they would be adding 14 to that total this year. Wellity, wellity, wellity, they’re playing at a 61-win pace, meaning our group pick is a near genius.

White Sox: To this point, our Pale Hose prediction is a bit too generous. We said they’d improve by seven games from 60 to 67, but they’re playing at the same pace as last year, costing us six games apiece on average. That’s still what qualifies as a top five pick at this point of the season.

Through games of Sunday, April 12 or 9.6 percent of the 2026 season:

Awardatron 2026 Kickoff
[Editor’s note: Ryan Pollack shared this first update on the email list on March 26.]

By Ryan Pollack

Greetings! Another season of baseball is upon us and with it comes the excitement of, uh, seeing the overwhelming Cy Young favorite get rocked for a jillion runs in his first start. Oops. Well I mean who among us hasn’t had a 67.50 ERA at some point in our lives? At least most of us managed to spell “Wetherholt’ correctly. Most of us.

I’m your host Ryan and welcome to Awardatron 2026. Shoutout to all the folks who’ve returned for another year of fun and games. And welcome welcome (welcome!) to those of you joining us for the first time.

Here’s how it works: towards the end of every month I’ll be sharing whom I think are the top 3 favorites for each award and providing commentary on one of the three in each category. I mix it up because honestly who wants to write about boring old Aaron Judge six times a year? Not me. I not only have a life, I hate the Yankees. Also, there will be a heavy Orioles bias because that’s what you pay me for. (Note: you do not pay me for anything.)

During the All-Star Break you’ll have a chance to change one (1) pick in each league in exchange for reduced points but hopefully more points than you would’ve otherwise gotten. There’s an opportunity to be strategic and go right when you think everyone else is going left. Or you can just bail out your worst picks. Tip #1: try not to get caught up in the hype. Jacob Misiorowski debuted right before the ASB last year and stuck out a billion batters. Many folks changed their NL Cy Young pick to him. Oops. 

I’ll send out a warning ahead of time and then it’s game on. Tip #2: whoever picked Roman Anthony and Caleb Durbin to win ROY awards, and I’m being coy because I know who you are, you may want to pull the lever on those ones. Just sayin’. 

After the awards are announced, typically in mid-November, I’ll share the scores. I group you into divisions based on award winners of years past. This year it’ll be the 2003 ROY award winners. So you can look forward to winning either the Angel Berroa or Dontrelle Willis division. There is of course an overall winner.

For now, have a look at how we picked ‘em: 

I personally appreciate the Orioles love. I would love it so much if Basallo, Alonso, Henderson, and/or Albernaz picked up an award. It’d mean we had a hell of a year. We are 1-0 to start the year and Trevor Rogers has, unlike Mr. Livvy Dunne, a sparkling 0.00 ERA. So anything’s possible, I suppose. 

Strap in, folks! I’m already impatient to see who’s going to win the World Series but since time travel hasn’t been invented yet (that we know of) I suppose I’ll settle in and enjoy the season with the rest of you.

Cheers!

P.S. Hats off to everyone who spelled ‘McGonigle’ correctly. I didn’t have to correct a single one!

Next meeting

Join us on Saturday, May 16, for our outing to see the Round Rock Express at Dell Diamond! It’s also Star Wars Night, so we can probably expect out-of-this world costumes and post-game entertainment. We’ll share a link to where we’ll be sitting so that you can purchase tickets in early May. May the force, er, the baseball, be with you, or something like that!

Plans for summer meetings

We have more ballgames in store for the summer! Please plan to join us on Sunday, June 28, again at Dell Diamond, for the Texas Volts, a member of the Athletes Unlimited Softball League. They’ll host the Portland Cascade at noon that Sunday. More details to come in early June.

In July, we’re planning to travel to watch the San Antonio Missions. Exact date to be determined but will be announced soon.

We’re planning to have a virtual meeting in August with details to come.

March 2026 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

In one of the best attended in-person meetings (not counting winter meetings), 21 chapter members and guests gathered to talk about the World Baseball Classic and the new season. In addition to a summary of the March meeting in the March Newsletter, you can find a report about the SABR Analytics Conference by scholarship recipient Bailey Hall, a new SABR Games Project article written by Larry Rice, a Black History Month presentation by Dick Butler and announcements for the annual Predictatron and Awardatron contests.

Cy Morong brought a quiz inspired by interruptions to baseball seasons past called “Pandemics, Strikes and Wars.” The 24-question multiple-choice quiz featured two questions that had two correct answers and an optional final question worth a bonus 6 points if correct and a deduction of 6 points if incorrect. Jim Baker took top honors with 25 points, and, surprise surprise, Gilbert Martinez, chapter commissioner, took second place with 23 points.

For his prowess, Jim selected a limited-edition Fergie Jenkins photocard commemorating his National Baseball Hall of Fame induction in 1991, leaving the Jeff Bagwell photocard for Gilbert (thanks, Jim!). Jim gifted the Mike Mussina photocard (not pictured) to well-known Yankees fan Ira Siegel.

Take your swing at Cy’s quiz here: March 2026 Pandemics, Strikes and Wars Quiz

Here’s the answer key: March 2026 Pandemics, Strikes and Wars Quiz answer key

We also welcomed Hornsby Chapter member Mark Escamilla, who grew up in Austin and attended his first chapter meeting. He recently contributed to the chapter email list discussion about Eduardo Rodriguez’s dominant pitching performance for Venezuela against Team USA in the World Baseball Classic championship last week. Mark also did statistical analysis for the Australian National Team in the World Baseball Classic. Welcome, Mark!

This was the 232nd consecutive month in which the chapter has met, a streak dating to December 2006.

Park renaming and historical marker in honor of MLB star and Austinite Don Baylor

A few chapter members attended the unveiling of a new historical marker at an Austin city park recently renamed in Don Baylor’s honor.

You can learn more from the various local media coverage, including KXAN (https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austinite-mlb-star-has-park-named-after-him/) and Cedric Golden’s column in the Austin American-Statesman: https://www.statesman.com/sports/columns/article/don-baylor-mlb-austin-park-21949779.php

Ms. Hall goes to Phoenix

[Congratulations to chapter member Bailey Hall for being awarded SABR’s Sarah Langs Women in Baseball Analytics Scholarship, which covered registration and accommodations for the SABR Analytics Conference last month and provided a travel stipend. I asked Bailey to share her impressions of her experience. – GDM]

By Bailey Hall

Hi, everyone! I hope everyone is doing well since I last saw y’all, and I can’t wait to come back for another meeting this summer. Gilbert has asked if I would do a quick writeup of my experience at the SABR Analytics Conference that just happened (Feb. 27-March 1) in Phoenix, Arizona, so here is what I thought of it!

SABR offers so many incredible opportunities for students in both high school and college, but one of the most meaningful is the scholarships they provide to attend the national conferences. This year, I was honored to receive the Sarah Langs Women in Baseball Analytics Scholarship, which allowed me to attend the conference in Phoenix. Because of this opportunity, I was able to meet so many amazing college women who share a passion for baseball and who were also able to attend thanks to this scholarship. 

So, with the scholarship, I arrived in Phoenix on a Wednesday morning. A man named Tyrone Brooks, who works for MLB but works closely with SABR, had a few events for the other scholarship winners before the conference began on Friday. Tyrone, who has worked in baseball for about 30 years and seems to know every person who works in MLB, was able to take us to about 12 front offices of the teams in Phoenix. At each facility, we were able to get a bit of a tour of the spring training complex, and then we were able to speak with a panel of employees about what their jobs look like. We spoke to scouts, coaches, player development employees, data analysts, performance scientists, biomechanics specialists, therapists, nutritionists, and more! It was really interesting to see how each team presented themselves. What I found interesting is that the general vibe you get from watching a team (cocky, big/small market, data driven, etc.) seemed to align with the vibe of the front office staff. 

As for the actual conference, which began that Friday, I found it quite different from the national convention held each summer. It was much more about networking and connecting for jobs, and the presentations were very data focused rather than historical. My favorite presentation was about developing a stat for third base coaches and determining their added value to a team. The idea was to perfect a third base coach’s accuracy in determining when to send a player home or not, and it took into account things like distance, runner speed, outfielder momentum, game time scenario, etc. The broader concept of expanding stats past just the players was recurring at the conference. Another presentation discussed the development of statistics to measure a manager’s added value to a team, almost like wins above replacement but for the coaching staff. I found this to be an interesting new area of interest, and I am curious to hear what you guys think about this as well. 

Another interesting part of the conference was that they embraced sports betting quite significantly. They had a panel of experts who were telling people which players they would bet on and which they would not, how much they believed each player was valued at, etc. Many of the speakers also talked about how listening to Vegas can really help perfect your statistical models because Vegas is almost never wrong about player predictions of injury, longevity, and overall value. Again, I am curious what you guys think about that!

There were many other interesting talks at the conference, and I believe some of them can be watched virtually if anyone is interested in checking them out. I also want to mention that Gilbert wrote me an incredible recommendation letter for my scholarship application, and I’m sure that played a big role in me receiving it. I’m very grateful for his support and wanted to thank him for that.

If anyone has questions about the conference, I’d be happy to talk more about it, and I’d also love to hear everyone’s thoughts. Happy spring training, everyone—I hope to see you all soon!

A chance for glory: Predictatron begins anew!

By Jim Baker

It won’t be long now until the regular season gets underway, which means that another installment of the Predictatron contest comes along with it. 

Attached you will find everything you need to know about getting your ballot submitted so that you can participate in this chapter institution. The deadline is 11:59 p.m. Friday, March 27.

Everyone is gunning for defending champion Mike Harrell, who will be looking to repeat. Last season, we had 25 participants, an all-time high. New players are welcome and encouraged. 

Instructions: 2026 Hornsby Predictatron Rules and Instructions

Ballot: 2026 Hornsby Predictatron Ballot

Another chance for glory: Awardatron seeks prognosticators!

By Ryan Pollack

Hear ye, hear ye — we are less than a week from the MLB season opener, which means the 2026 Awardatron contest is now open for submissions!

You know the drill: predict the BBWAA award winners in each league and win big points, I mean, bragging rights to your friends!! Unskilled at prognostication? Don’t fret, you’ll have the chance to change one pick in each league at the All-Star Break in exchange for reduced points. 

Either way you could join the ranks of these esteemed contest winners from years past:

2025: Ryan Pollack
2024: Mike McNulty
2023: Mike Cohen
2022: Scott Gay

Yes, if your name is Mike, you have a 50% chance of winning! 

Ballots are due 9 a.m. (Central Time) on Wednesday, March 25. The season kicks off that evening with the Giants & Yankees before a full slate of games the following day. 

Don’t delay, submit your picks today!!

Congrats to chapter member Larry Rice for his Games Project article!

At the invitation of SABR Games Project coordinator John Fredland, chapter member Larry Rice submitted “September 4, 2006: Home run, near no-hitter make it a Labor Day to remember for Ramón Ortiz,” published last month. Here’s a link to the article: https://sabr.org/gamesproj/game/september-4-2006-home-run-near-no-hitter-make-it-a-labor-day-to-remember-for-ramon-ortiz/

Congrats, Larry!

Black History Month presentation about baseball by Dick Butler

Dick Butler, along with Clifton Fifer Jr., gave a Black History Month presentation on baseball titled “Kerrville All-Stars: Black Town Baseball in the Jim Crow Era” at the Patrick Heath Public Library in Boerne last month. Dick talked about the Kerrville All-Stars, a Black town baseball team that played from the 1920s until about 1970. Mr. Fifer provided anecdotes and personal stories about the All-Stars.  His father was a player and manager for the All-Stars.

In September, Dick is scheduled to publish “Hill Country Ball: Depression-Era Baseball in the Texas German Belt” (Texas Tech University Press). Click here for more about the new book.

Congrats, Dick!

Nicole Bryan joins Hornsby Chapter leadership

I’m pleased to announce that Nicole Bryan has joined the chapter leadership team to serve as a director, along with Dick Butler, who joined the team in January. They join Commissioner Martinez, Monte Cely, Ryan Pollack, Jerry Miller and Don Dingee on the leadership team.

Hornsby Chapter commissioner election process

It’s been nearly three years since the Hornsby Chapter adopted chapter bylaws and conducted its first chapter commissioner election. In accordance with the bylaws, we are preparing for the chapter’s second election. Many thanks to Dick Butler, election coordinator, Ryan Pollack, election observer, and Don Dingee, election registrar. A call for nominations will go out on April 2 with an online election to occur in mid-May. The newly elected commissioner will then assemble a team of directors to assist in running the chapter. Questions about this process can be directed to Don.

Next meeting

As has become a recent tradition and for the third consecutive April, Nicole Bryan and Brian Hall are generously opening their home to host the chapter monthly meeting at noon Saturday, April 18, in Central Austin. A call for RSVPs will go out in early April. Hope to see you there!