Who Were the Most Productive Offensive Players in 2011?
By Bill Gilbert
Numerous methods have been devised to measure offensive performance. The most common are batting average, on-base percentage and slugging average. Since none of these averages provides a complete picture by itself, a more comprehensive measure of offensive performance is useful. Such a measure would include the following elements:
1. The ability to get on base.
2. The ability to hit with power.
3. The ability to add value through baserunning.
The first two elements are measured by on-base percentage and slugging average. A measure of offensive performance, which encompasses both as well as baserunning achievements, is Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA). This measure accounts for the net bases accumulated by a player per plate appearance. It is calculated as follows:
BPA = (TB + BB + HB + SB – CS – GIDP) / (AB + BB + HB + SF)
Where: BPA = Bases per Plate Appearance
TB = Total Bases
BB = Bases on Balls
HB = Hit by Pitch
SB = Stolen Bases
CS = Caught Stealing
GIDP = Grounded into Double Plays
AB = At Bats
SF = Sacrifice Flies
The numerator accounts for all of the bases accumulated by a player, reduced by the number of times he is caught stealing or erases another runner by grounding into a double play. The denominator accounts for the plate appearances when the player is trying to generate bases for himself. Sacrifice hits are not included as plate appearances, since they represent the successful execution of the batter’s attempts to advance another runner.
Major league BPA for the past fifteen years are shown below along with the number of players with BPA over .550 and .600:
Year 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BPA .463 .463 .479 .481 .468 .457 .461 .468 .456 .470 .463 .458 .461 .446 .442
.550 34 41 50 50 46 39 42 33 34 46 34 41 42 19 25
.600 15 22 29 30 26 17 15 18 13 14 15 11 16 7 7
Offensive production peaked in 2000 before declining in the early years of this century. BPA in 2011 was down slightly from 2010, an 8.1% reduction from the peak in 2000.
In the 1990s, there were 14 individual .700 BPA seasons. In the eight year period from 2000 to 2007, there were 18. The highest BPA in the 1990s was recorded by Mark McGwire in 1998 (.799). Barry Bonds shattered that with .907 in 2001, the highest figure ever recorded, topping Babe Ruth’s best two years (1920 and 1921). Bonds followed that with .869 in 2002, .818 in 2003 and .882 in 2004. There have not been any hitters with a BPA of .700 since 2007. The last player to make it was Alex Rodriguez (.702) in 2007. Surprisingly, Albert Pujols has not had a .700 BPA in his eleven seasons.
The .700 BPA seasons in 2000-2011 are listed below:
Player Team Year BPA
Barry Bonds San Francisco 2001 .907
Barry Bonds San Francisco 2004 .882
Barry Bonds San Francisco 2002 .869
Barry Bonds San Francisco 2003 .818
Sammy Sosa Chicago Cubs 2001 .758
Barry Bonds San Francisco 2000 .745
Jim Thome Cleveland 2002 .728
Manny Ramirez Cleveland 2000 .726
Todd Helton Colorado 2000 .720
Luis Gonzalez Arizona 2001 .713
Todd Helton Colorado 2001 .709
Carlos Delgado Toronto 2000 .707
Larry Walker Colorado 2001 .707
Jason Giambi Oakland 2000 .706
Travis Hafner Cleveland 2006 .703
Alex Rodriguez NY Yankees 2007 .702
Jason Giambi Oakland 2001 .700
Ryan Howard Philadelphia 2006 .700
The yearly leaders since 1992 are as follows:
1992 Bonds .734 1993 Bonds .740 1994 Bagwell .768
1995 Belle .692 1996 McGwire .765 1997 Walker .770
1998 McGwire .799 1999 McGwire .735 2000 Bonds .745
2001 Bonds .907 2002 Bonds .869 2003 Bonds .818
2004 Bonds .882 2005 D. Lee .699 2006 Hafner .703
2007 A. Rodriguez .702 2008 Pujols .685 2009 Pujols .696
2010 Bautista .671 2011 Bautista .681
The benchmark for an outstanding individual season is .600. Following is a list of 7 players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and with a BPA of .600 in 2011.
Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA) of .600+ in 2011
——————————
No. of
2011 2010 .600+
Player BPA BPA LG Seasons Comments
1 Bautista, J .681 .671 A 2 Second straight year at the top.
2 Braun, R. .663 .535 N 3 Filled the stat sheet.
3 Kemp, M. .647 .476 N 1 Big-time breakout season
4 Cabrera, M. .615 .642 A 3 Consistently near the top.
5 Granderson, C .614 .534 A 2 Found power against lefties.
6 Fielder, C. .610 .555 N 3 Had better year than Pujols.
7 Ellsbury, J. .607 .361 A 1 Found a power stroke.
The only repeaters from last year’s list are Bautista and Cabrera. Bautista topped the list in both years. Pujols had a BPA of .548, by far the lowest of his career, ranking 27th among qualifiers. Five other players had a BPA over .600 in 2010 but fell short in 2011.
No. of
2010 2011 .600+
Player BPA BPA LG Seasons Comments
1 Votto, J. .657 .576 N 2 Not quite up to 2010 MVP season.
2 Hamilton, J. .653 .559 A 1 Held back by injuries again.
3 Pujols, A. .634 .548 N 8 Down year would be a career year for most.
4 Gonzalez, C. .632 .576 N 1 Not quite up to 2010 season.
5 Konerko, P. .613 .551 A 1 Another strong late-career season.
Six players have a BPA over .600 for their careers:
2011 Career
Player Age BPA BPA Comments.
———— — —- —- ——–
Albert Pujols 31 .548 .641 Easily the best in 2000-09 decade.
Alex Rodriguez 35 .500 .617 Signs of a decline.
Manny Ramirez 39 .059 .617 Great career down in flames.
Jim Thome 40 .531 .615 600 HR clinches HOF spot.
Lance Berkman 35 .598 .602 Still a tough out.
Ryan Braun 27 .663 .602 2012 season in question.
Another list of interest is of players with a BPA of over .600 in 2011 who did not have enough plate appearances (PA) to qualify for the batting title.
Player Age BPA PA Comments
————— — —- — —————————
Brett Lawrie 21 .663 171 Looks like an impact player.
Mike Napoli 29 .662 432 Can he do it again?
Jason Giambi 40 .645 152 Still hits with power.
Alejandro De Aza 27 .600 171 Pleasant surprise for White Sox.
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, sixteen players who earned enough playing time to qualify for the batting title had a BPA less than .400 in 2011. Ichiro Suzuki narrowly missed this list with a BPA of .400. Adam Dunn, with a BPA of .369 in 2011 and a career BPA of .580 would be on this list if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.
Player BPA Comments
—————– —- ——————————
Vladimir Guerrero .398 Had 7 seasons with BPA over .600.
Omar Infante .396 Third straight year of decline.
Miguel Olivo .395 Only catcher on the list.
Robert Andino .392 First year as a regular.
Danny Valencia .390 Failed to repeat promising 2010 season.
Alcides Escobar .386 A repeater on this list.
Gordon Beckham .385 A major disappointment.
Martin Prado .385 Down from .474 in 2010.
Mark Ellis .382 First time below .400.
Juan Pierre .379 Career BPA of .445.
Darwin Barney .373 Tailed off in second half.
Placido Polanco .368 Career BPA of .425.
Alex Gonzalez .367 A candidate for this list every year.
Yuniesky Betancourt .366 Career BPA of .384
Jason Bartlett .364 Had .572 BPA in 2009.
Casey McGehee .355 Season long slump from .473 in 2010.
Alex Rios .353 Even worse than Adam Dunn.
Two players compiled a batting average over .300, an on-base average over .400, a slugging percentage over .500 and bases per plate appearance over .600 in 2011:
Player (2010) BAVG OBA SLG BPA OPS
Jose Bautista .302 .447 .608 .681 1.055
Miguel Cabrera .344 .448 .586 .615 1.033
Two active players have these numbers for their careers, although Manny Ramirez was active for only 17 plate appearances in 2011.
Player (Career) BAVG OBA SLG BPA OPS
Albert Pujols .328 .420 .617 .641 1.037
Manny Ramirez .312 .411 .585 .617 .996
Bill Gilbert
12/28/11