July 2024 Newsletter
By Gilbert D. Martinez
On a pleasant overcast afternoon with a constant, refreshing breeze, seven chapter members watched the San Antonio Missions drop their last game before the All-Star break on Sunday.
The Missions lost 4-2 to the Amarillo Sod Poodles, managed by former Astros, Mets and Dodgers infielder Tim Bogar. The game featured Missions catcher Brandon Valenzuela, who was named the June MiLB Player of the Month, and Sod Poodles first baseman Matt Beaty, who’s played with the Dodgers (2019-21), Padres (2022) and Giants and Royals (2023).
During the game, Cy Morong had a trivia question for the group. He noticed that Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees had back-to-back months (May and June) with an OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of 1.350 or better.
Only three other players have achieved this in back-to-back months. One player did it multiple times, including a time with three consecutive months. Another player did it twice and one more did it once. Can you name them?
Ira Siegel was able to name one of the players after Cy mentioned that he particularly wanted to pose the trivia question to me. If you know who my favorite baseball team is, then the hint may help you, too.
You can find out who the players are and more on Cy’s recent blog: https://cybermetric.blogspot.com/2024/07/players-who-had-at-least-1350-ops-in.html
Mike Lassman, who joined us at the Missions game, shared that he’ll attend SABR 52 from Aug. 7 to 11 in Minneapolis. Any other chapter members planning on attending? Please let Gilbert know. For more information about SABR 52, go to this link: https://sabr.org/convention/
After the Missions game, Andy York, who lived in San Antonio in the 1980s and ’90s, invited us to join him at Tong’s Thai Restaurant, a favorite of his. He particularly recommended the restaurant’s fried spring roll. A few of us enjoyed a post-game early dinner.
Though the season is more than halfway done, teams, players and fans pause for the All-Star break and ponder what went right (and wrong) in the first half of the season and dream of what may be for the remainder of the season. The same can be said of the chapter’s two prediction contests: Predictatron, in which chapter member and mere mortals attempt to foresee the season’s outcome, and Awardatron, in which we try to anticipate baseball’s award winners.
800 CREDIT SCORE
By Jim Baker
We come to the All-Star break much as we’ve played the season to this point: with Mr. Rogers increasing his contest lead and Ms. Martinez and Mr. Gay battling it out for control of the Raeanne Martinez Division.
On the former front, the lead has grown yet again as Mr. Rogers summoned up 25 more points to become the first player to crack the 800-point barrier in 2024—an achievement in both the world of personal credit and in Predictatron. In so doing, he increased his overall lead to 42 points on his nearest competitors, the aforementioned Ms. Martinez and Mr. Gay, who come to the break tied for first place in the division not currently being dominated by Mr. Rogers.
Mr. Robinson remains hot on the trail of the two divisional leaders, trailing them both by just two points, while in the Rogers Division, the race is for second place these days and Mr. McNulty is ahead, two points in front of third-placer Mr. Dillon, but a staggering 58 (!) points behind Mr. Rogers.
It was a good week in scoring news as only one player lost points and all but five experienced double-figure gains. Leading the way was our first-time Player of the Week, Mr. Wancho, with 27 points. This afforded him a two-place jump from seven to fifth in the Rogers Division. Mr. Rogers, Mr. Martinez, and Mr. Siegel all added 25 points to their scores as we posted a 16-point gain on average.
Why all the increased pointage? Well, for one thing, we’re down to just nine teams costing us in double figures with just one of them costing us in the twenties:
-21 Marlins
-19 White Sox
-18 Guardians
-15 Phillies
-14 Royals
-14 Red Sox
-12 Brewers
-11 Blue Jays
-11 Rangers
The Red Sox are relatively new to this list as they have played their way well out of our predicted range with their recent hotness.
There will be no update for the short week, so the next time you get one of these broadsides it will be two weeks from now and it will cover about 40 percent more games than usual. It is possible, therefore, that there will be some bigger upheavals in the standings to look forward to.
Through games of Sunday, July 14 (the All-Star break), or 59.6 percent of the 2024 season:
Awardatron Update
By Ryan Pollack
First things first! It’s All-Star break month. Beginning on the 15th and ending on the 18th, Awardatron participants will have the chance to change ONE (1) preseason award pick.
AL MVP
Your favorites: Soto, Julio Rodríguez, Rutschman
Current favorites: Henderson, Judge, Soto
Well, what can I say about Henderson that hasn’t already been said this year?? Aaron Judge is continuing his super-hot hitting streak. And while Henderson hasn’t quiiiiite kept pace with the stick, he HAS been outclassing Judge in the field and on the basepaths. These differences have Henderson and Judge projected for a nearly-even 9.4 and 9.2 fWAR. Soto is of course having an excellent offensive season as well, and his defensive value is similar to Judge’s, but he’s not a good baserunner and his position is less valuable.
Other names to watch: Witt Jr., Kwan, Air Yordan
NL MVP
Your favorites: Betts, Acuña Jr., Freeman/Turner/Harper
Current favorites: Ohtani, Marte, Lindor
Ketel Marte’s baaaaaaaaack! Marte broke out in a big way in 2019, hitting .329/.389/.592 with 32 dingers and average defense at second for 6.3 WAR. It was his age-25 season and you could’ve been forgiven for thinking he was about to rocket up to the top of the game. Well, from 2021-23 he hit .273/.350/.469 with 51 HR and his defense slipped to well below average. Good numbers, to be sure, and no one will turn down a 2-3 WAR player. But it probably wasn’t what he or the Diamondbacks had in mind after 2019.
Well perhaps he was just biding his time, because so far this year he has been tremendous, hitting .288/.356/.512 with 17 HR and much improved defense. And he’s doing it in a year where offense has cratered, so when you compare him to replacement level, he’s racked up 3.8 WAR already and there’s still half a season to go.
Other names to watch: Freddie Freeman, Harper, Elly de la Cruz
AL Cy Young
Your favorites: Burnes, Kirby, Gausman
Current favorites: Skubal, Burnes, Lugo
Seth Lugo!??!?! The Mets reliever?? That was my reaction anyway. Yes, the 34-year-old former Met and Padre is having a career year. He’s accrued 2.7 fWAR already, just 0.1 WAR below his single-season high of 2.8 that he set with San Diego last year. His strikeout and walk rates are roughly the same as compared to last year. What’s happened is that he’s giving up fewer hits on balls in play, and he’s stopped giving up dingers.
Regarding hits on balls in play, you’ll recall from last month’s email that major league average is in the .280-.290 range. Lugo’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .266. Because pitchers generally can’t control what happens when a ball enters the field of play, we expect this number to regress to the mean, which will increase Lugo’s ERA a bit.
The other major change? Lugo’s HR/9 has dropped from 1.2-ish to a stingy 0.7. There’s some signal here — his Hard-Hit rate (per Statcast) is down from 44% to 39%, and his barrel rate is down from 9.6% to 7.4%.
And hey — remember what I talked about last time? The percent of runners pitchers stranded? Lugo’s is at a sky-high 85%.
Overall, Statcast and FIP think Lugo’s ERA should be in the 3.50 range, not 2.17 where it currently is. That’s still good, but not Cy-worthy. But we’ll see. Regardless, he’ll end up with a career year, and at age 34 no less. Happy for him.
Other names to watch: Houck, Gilbert. (I refuse to put Crochet because I don’t think he’ll pitch as much for the rest of the year.)
NL Cy Young
Your favorites: Strider, Gallen, Yamamoto
Current favorites: Sale, Webb, Glasnow
Chris Sale pitching like it’s 2015 makes me happy. The man spent so many years injured and/or ineffective, I thought he was really done. But he clearly isn’t. Unlike Lugo, Sale’s 2.71 ERA isn’t a mirage. His K-BB% is a sterling 27.8%, he’s getting tons of called strikes and whiffs, his Hard Hit rate is 30%, and his Barrel rate is a stingy 5.9%. Somewhere, someone is cutting up a White Sox jersey in glee.
Other names to watch: Wheeler, Suarez, Gray
AL Rookie of the Year
Your favorites: Holliday, Carter, Langford
Current favorites: Cowser, Mason Miller, Wilyer Abreu
I MET COLTON COWSER!! Not kidding. He was sitting at the next table with about 10-12 friends and family (not teammates that I could see) at a Mexican restaurant in Houston. It was a couple hours after the Orioles’ loss to the Astros on Saturday, June 22nd. I was in town, decked out in O’s gear, with several friends and we’d just been to the game. After we sat down to eat, I glanced at the next table and immediately recognized him.
At first, I was too chicken to say hi. I was just geeking out to my friends. (I am an introvert by nature.) But one of them went over and said hi to him, kind of showing me that I could too. So I walked over, and as I did, a couple of (what I’m guessing were) his relatives noticed my O’s gear and started chatting with me. They encouraged me to go speak with him, so I did. It was amazing. His mom thanked me for being respectful!! Wow.
Other names to watch: David Hamilton, Luis Gil, Justin Slaten
NL Rookie of the Year
Your favorites: Yamamoto, Chourio, Jung Hoo Lee
Current favorites: Ortiz, Jackson Merrill, Yamamoto
The Curse of Preseasons Award Predictions has claimed Strider, Acuña Jr., Betts, and now also Yamamoto. The Japanese rookie went down on June 16th with a strained rotator cuff. Shoulder injuries are no joke for pitchers so I was pretty bummed. Apparently now he’s pain-free, which is good. Let’s hope he returns soon.
In the meantime, Jackson Merrill (who is from Baltimore!) has come on strong. He slugged .360 in April and May but turned it up a notch in June, slugging a ridiculous .650. Put another way, in April and May he hit 3 HR combined. In June?? He hit 9. Yes, 9. He’s an above-average defender in center field, which is saying something since he was a shortstop before this year, and has added value on the basepaths. Joey Ortiz is on the IL as well, so Merrill may be the frontrunner.
Other names to watch: Michael Busch, Masyn Winn, Jacob Young
AL Manager of the Year
Your favorites: Servais (Mariners), Hyde (Orioles), Quatraro (Royals)
Current favorites: Vogt, Servais, Cora
Well, in the last couple of weeks the Royals have stumbled somewhat. FanGraphs now gives them just a 35% chance at making the playoffs, which is down from the 50%-ish spot they were in a little while back. It’s a long season, folks. In the same timespan, Alex Cora’s Red Sox have shaken off their early-season underperformance and are now seen as the favorites for that third Wild Card spot, with a 41% playoff chance.
I would like to think that Hyde is in the running this year… and maybe if the Orioles win the division, then Hyde will finish in the Top 3. But the Guardians’ preseason expectations were way lower than the Orioles’.
NL Manager of the Year
Your favorites: Counsell (Cubs), Shildt (Padres), Bell (Reds) / Roberts (Dodgers)
Current favorites: Murphy, Shildt, Thomson
Murphy’s Brewers continue to run the table on the NL Central, while Counsell’s Cubs have gone in the opposite direction and now sit in the cellar.
Mike Shildt’s Padres are doing way better than anyone expected. I think most thought that after losing Soto and Snell, the Padres would falter somewhat. Instead, they acquired Dylan Cease and have the first NL Wild Card spot. Go figure.
Next meeting on Zoom on Aug. 10
Aaron Fischman, the son of Jerry Miller’s friend and author of “A Baseball Gaijin: Chasing a Dream to Japan and Back,” will join us at 1 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 10, via Zoom. The book, published in June, tells the story of Tony Barnette, who pitched six seasons for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows from 2010 to 2015 in Japan followed up by four seasons with the Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs from 2016 to 2019.
To register for the Zoom meeting, please go to this link: https://txstate.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZcsduqgqT8sEtUHOS5NVQEG4h87PhnraBlJ
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