October 2024 Newsletter
By Gilbert D. Martinez
As part of a longtime chapter tradition, fourteen chapter members and guests gathered to watch World Series Game 2 on Saturday, pitting diehard Dodgers fan Jerry Miller against diehard Yankees fan Ira Siegel.
In a close game that got tighter when the Yankees’ bats awoke to mount a ninth-inning rally, Jerry gave us a nearly pitch-by-pitch rendition of the Dodgers’ win-probability percentage while Ira took renewed interest in the game. Alas for Ira and Yankees fans, the Dodgers held on for a 4-2 win, taking a two-games-to-none lead.
But the victory may have come at a steep cost as superstar Shohei Ohtani injured his shoulder attempting to steal second base in the seventh inning. It remains to be seen if he’ll return when the World Series resumes in the Bronx on Monday.
Jerry said he’s hopeful that his team can win at least one game in New York, while Ira remembers World Series in which the team that sprinted out to a quick 2-0 lead has gone on to lose the series, including in a prior matchup between the Yankees and the Dodgers. Jerry said he’s well aware of the history, but admitted that he likes his team’s chances two games in.
In other words, both have high hopes.
As he has long done, gracious and generous host Jim Baker provided dinner, this time yummy New Jersey-style pies from Saccone’s Pizza, while Linda and Monte Cely shared a scrumptious chocolate trifle and Ira brought homemade oatmeal raisin cookies. Others brought beverages and snacks.
We also remembered Dodgers ace Fernando Valenzuela, the winner of the 1981 National League Cy Young and Rookie of the Year. El Toro died on Oct. 22.
We also heard from Jan Larson, who was unable to join us as he recovers from a recent surgery. Monte Cely shared a note from Jan during a mid-inning commercial break.
“I’m sorry that I’m forced to miss Jim’s soirée,” Jan wrote. “Unless you’re a diehard Dodgers fan, please root for the Yankees. After all, their fans have gone 15 years since their last World Series!”
It was great to hear from Jan, who serves on the chapter’s leadership team as a director. We wish him a quick recovery and hope to see him again soon.
This was the 215th consecutive month in which the chapter has met. This was also the 12th time Jim Baker has hosted a World Series watch party at his home. Thanks so much, Jim!
Not only did Jim host and feed us, he also unveiled a Yankees-Dodgers World Series themed quiz, which may have favored superfans Jerry Miller and Ira Siegel. In fact, Jerry took top billing with a score of 25, barely edging Tom Thayer, who had 24. Ira took third with 21 points.
Think you can do better? Give it a try at the end of this newsletter (answers immediately follow the questions).
Predictatron update: A Mike Dillon Miracle?
By Jim Baker (shared on Oct. 22 prior to the start of the World Series)
With the World Series looming, we are combining the updates on our two contests because they are linked by one incredible-but-still-possible feat: Mike Dillon can win both of them if things break exactly right for him!
First, the easy one: If the Yankees win the World Series, Mike will pull off one of the great comebacks in the history of this contest and nip long-time leader Brian Rodgers to win Predictatron by a score of 832-831. For that contest, the game count doesn’t matter.
It does, however, matter a great deal for the Postseason Tourney. If the Yankees also win the World Series in seven games, Mike will be our champion there as well, and will head home from our January meeting in San Marcos loaded down with a ton of hardware.
In any of the other three Yankee-win outcomes, Ryan Pollack is the champion. Ryan is also the champion in the event of a Dodgers victory, so you have to like his chances right about now. Here are the four Yankee win scenarios:
Ryan wins outright in a four- or five-game Series and wins by virtue of the tiebreaker if the Yankees win in six, as the total number of games in the 2024 playoffs will then match his prediction of 35 exactly. As you can see, it’s only in the seven-game Series that Mike gets his full 10 points, which is enough to beat Ryan.
Getting back to the main contest, a Dodgers victory will allow Brian Rogers to keep his big lead and take home the big trophy. Regardless of the Series outcome, though, Eric Robinson wins the Raeanne Martinez Division, which will—by tradition (or maybe it’s by law)—be known as the Eric Robinson Division in 2025.
This chart shows where everyone will finish in Predictatron in the two remaining World Champion outcomes:
The player with the biggest swing between the two eventualities is Ira Siegel. Picking the Yankees to win it all will land him in third place if they actually follow through on his prediction, but consign him to eighth if they don’t. Scott Gay has a four-place difference going the other way.
Here are the full standings for the Postseason Tourney in both their possible iterations.
If the Yankees win the World Series
(note that the four players who have the Yankees winning it all can lose up to two points each, depending on the length of the Series):
If the Dodgers win the World Series
(Note that the four players who have the Dodgers winning it all can lose up to two points each, depending on the length of the Series.) Second place will go to either Gary McIntosh or Mike Harrell and will depend heavily on the Series length as they are both tied with 28 possible points at the moment. Mike gets the runner-up spot in a four- and five-game Series as Gary will lose two points in those scenarios. Gary wins out in a seven-game series. If the Dodgers win in six, Mike wins the tiebreaker for being closer to the total game count of 35.
Announcing Ryan Pollack’s Contractatron contest!
(Editor’s note: Deadline alert! The deadline is noon the day after the last World Series game, which could come as soon as Wednesday, Oct. 30, in the event of a Dodgers sweep!)
By Ryan Pollack
🎩 STEP RIGHT UP, FOLKS! 🎩
Gather ’round, ladies and gentlemen, and feast your eyes on the MOST thrilling, the MOST dazzling, the MOST sensational contest of the baseball offseason – IT’S THE CONTRACTATRON! 🤹♂️⚾️
Yes, sir, yes, ma’am, it’s your chance to outguess the experts, outwit the wise guys, and predict the biggest free-agent contracts in all the land! Can you guess how many of those glorious greenbacks, those delightful dollars, those stacked sawbucks, the mightiest ballplayers in the world will land?
Well, step right up and test your wits in this rip-roarin’, high-flyin’ extravaganza!
🎪 HOW DO YA PLAY, YA ASK? 🎪
- FOR THESE 10 PLAYERS, predict their contracts with your finest crystal-ball skills!
- SCORIN’ IS SIMPLE! We’ll judge ya on how close you can get to the real deal! The closer you are, the lower and better your score – it’s as easy as pie! We measure the difference between the predicted and actual contracts as a percentage of the actual contract, and the smaller the number, the better!
EXAMPLES, YOU SAY?
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- You guess Charles “Horseface” Johnson will get $500M, but he only gets $300M. That’s a 66.7% score! ($200M miss divided by the $300M contract)
- You guess Ambrose “Cranky Ankle” Smith will get $5M, but he ends up with $6M. That’s a 16.7% score! ($1M miss divided by the $6M contract)
- You guess “Smilin’” Wilbur Abernathy will get $100M, but he ends up with $92.8M. That’s a 7.8% score! ($7.2M miss divided by the $92.8M contract)
- Average ’em out and ya get a final score of 30.4%! Ain’t that somethin’?! Is it more accurate than your fellow contestants’?! You’ll have to wait to find out!!
- TIE-BREAKERS?! If it’s neck and neck, we’ll settle it the old-fashioned way: whoever submitted their entry first wins! It’s all about timing, folks!
🎉 RULES AND REGULATIONS, NOW DON’T FORGET ’EM! 🎉
- ONLY THE GUARANTEED BUCKS COUNT! We’re talkin’ cold, hard cash, no incentives, no team or mutual options, no escalators – and certainly no conditional salaries! (Player opt-outs are counted as part of the contract though, because they are guaranteed.)
- DON’T WORRY ABOUT DEFERRALS! Contract include mega deferrals? No need to do fancy math! Just use the total reported value! (Example: Because of deferrals, Ohtani’s $700M contract is valued at $460M for luxury tax purposes. Contractatron would judge you on the $700M reported value.)
- MAJOR LEAGUE MONEY ONLY! None of that minor league mumbo-jumbo here!
- QUALIFYIN’ OFFERS ARE FAIR GAME! If a player accepts one, it counts!
- AND IF THEY DON’T HIT FREE AGENCY? Why, then we never heard of ’em! Gone, forgotten, erased!
- NO EXTENSIONS ALLOWED! It’s free agency or bust, folks!
🎈 CONTEST BEGINS WHEN?! 🎈
Your entries are due at high noon CST, the day after the last scheduled game of the World Series – that’s right, folks, don’t delay, don’t dilly-dally! If it’s a sweep, your ballots are due at noon the day after Game 4 starts! (If a player signs before this time, poof! They’re gone from the contest!)
We’ll tally the results at 9 a.m. (Central Standard Time) on Opening Day of the U.S.-based season or after all 10 free agents sign, whichever comes first! Any signings that happen after that? Why, they’re as good as erased! Overseas MLB games? Japan, Korea, Australia? Bah! They don’t count for this here contest!
=====
So, step right up! Roll up your sleeves, sharpen those pencils, and let’s see who’s got the sharpest mind in the land when it comes to predictin’ those big money contracts!
It’s the Contractatron, folks – the contest that’ll have ya on the edge of your seat all winter long! 🎺🎉
Submit your guesses here! Time’s a-wastin’!
Next meeting
Our next chapter meeting will be at 1 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 17, at Serranos (at MoPac and Ben White). This will come just prior to MLB’s announcement of the sport’s biggest awards that week. A meeting announcement and call for RSVPs will come at the beginning of November. Hope you can join us!
Yankees versus Dodgers in the World Series Quiz
By Jim Baker
Part I: General Stuff (3 total points)
2024 marks the twelfth World Series matchup between the Dodgers and Yankees, the most in history. How many of these took place before the Dodgers moved to Los Angeles?
How many of the plethora of Yankee World titles have come against the Dodgers?
Which two teams have met the second-most times in the World Series?
Part II: The First Time They Met (4 total points)
In what year was the first Dodgers-Yankees World Series?
The first-ever World Series home run hit by a Dodger against the Yankees (and the only one they had in this Series) came off the bat of this very talented young player who was infamous for crashing into walls at high speed, a practice that shortened his very promising career considerably.
While Hall of Famers Bill Dickey, Phil Rizzuto and Joe DiMaggio went a combined 10-for-55 with just one XBH, this fourth Hall of Famer and second baseman picked up their slack by pacing the World Champion Yankees with a Series OPS of 1.595.
With Brooklyn on the verge of tying the Series at two games apiece, a missed third strike by this Dodgers catcher with two outs in the ninth and the Dodgers leading in Game Four is one of the more infamous moments in World Series history and one he never really lived down as Tommy Heinrich reached first base and the Yankees went on to win the game and the Series.
Part III: The Last Time Before This Time (7 total points)
In what year was the last Dodgers-Yankees World Series before this one?
The last time these two teams met in the Series, the Dodgers had a famous infield that played together as a unit for eight-and-a-half seasons, culminating in this Series. Name all four for the four-point credit. No partial credit. It’s all or nothing!
1b________________________ 2b________________________
3b________________________ ss_________________________
This Yankee was charged with three losses in that Series, the only man to do so when not actively involved in throwing the proceedings. (Looking at you, Lefty Williams…)
a.) Ron Davis b.) Rich Gossage c.) George Frazier d.) Terry Forster
Holy Dal Maxvill, Batman! This Hall of Famer went 1-for-22 in the Series (although he did have five walks) and, when he finally got a single in the last game to break his oh-for-20 schneid, he had the chutzpah to ask for the ball!
Part IV: Larsen’s Perfect Game (8 total points)
On October 8, 1956, Don Larsen of the Yankees pitched a perfect game against the Dodgers, winning 2-0. In which game of the World Series did it come?
This man, who was more famous for playing for another New York team, was the opposing pitcher against Larsen.
Name as many of the five Hall of Famers who went 0-for-3 against Larsen that day as you can. One point each.
1______________________ 2______________________ 3______________________ 4______________________ 5______________________
Who gave the Yankees the only run they would need with a solo home run in the fourth inning?
Part V: The Rest of Them (9 total points)
In Game Four of the 1947 Series, this Yankee hurler almost threw the first no-hitter in World Series history. Instead, the last of the 10 (!) walks he issued finally caught up with him as he followed it by surrendering a walk-off pinch double to Cookie Lavagetto with two outs in the ninth to give Brooklyn the 3-2 victory. (He pitched once more in the Series in relief and then never appeared in another Major League game.)
a.) Bobo Newsom b.) Bill Bevans c.) Cuddles Marshall d.) Charles “Butch” Wensloff
In the 1952 World Series, this Yankee infielder speared a bases-loaded Dodger pop fly at the last possible moment to preserve a Yankee lead (and eventual victory) in the seventh inning of Game Seven. The following year, his walk-off hit won Game Six and—at the same time— yet another World Series title against the Dodgers.
With a huge showing in the Game Six clincher of the 1977 World Series, Yankee Reggie Jackson became the first player to ever do this in World Series history. For an extra two points, can you name the only other player who has done it since? (The second player was not a member of the of the Yankees or Dodgers when he did it.)
In 1963, the Dodgers had a slash line of only .214/.279/.350, but still managed to sweep the Yankees out of the Series. Naturally, Sandy Koufax (2) and Don Drysdale (1) got three of the four wins. Who got the fourth win for the Dodgers? Hint: he famously pitched the deciding game in their first-ever World Title in 1955, blanking the Yankees 2-0 in that one.
The first-ever walk-off grand slam in a World Series game took place in a Dodgers-Yankees contest. Who hit it?
In the 1949 meetup between the Yankees and Dodgers, the Hall of Fame trio of Joe DiMaggio (2-for-18), Phil Rizzuto (3-for-18) and Yogi Berra (1-for 16) had a rough go, leaving it to this player—who once addressed this very body—to lead the New York regulars with a slash line of .500/.571/.917.
If you really want to see who had a great World Series, check cWPA (Championship Win Probability Added) on baseball-reference.com. The two men who had the highest numbers in this all-important category for in the 1978 Dodgers-Yankees match-up was this unlikely New York keystone combo, who both hit over .400 with CWPAs of 18.43% and 14.93%. (For comparison, Reggie Jackson was 8.43% and Graig Nettles was -17.38%.)
General stuff (3)
Seven: 1941, 1947, 1949, 1952, 1953, 1955 and 1956
Eight: 1941, 1947, 1949, 1952, 1953, 1956, 1977 and 1978
Giants and Yankees: 1921, 1922, 1923, 1936, 1937, 1951, 1962
The First Time (4)
1941
Pete Reiser
Joe Gordon
Mickey Owen
The Last Time Before This Time (7)
1981
Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Bill Russell, Ron Cey
George Frazier
Dave Winfield
Larsen’s Perfect Game (8)
Game 5
Sal Maglie
Jackie Robinson, PeeWee Reese, Duke Snider, Gil Hodges, Roy Campanella
Mickey Mantle
The Rest of Them (9)
Bill Bevans
Billy Martin
Hit five homers in a Series. Chase Utley, 2009 Phillies
Johnny Podres
Freddie Freeman, Friday night (Oct. 25, 2024)
Dr. Bobby Brown
Bucky Dent and Brian Doyle
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