Mike Dillon, Jan Larson and Cy Morong are the three who had the Yankees going all the way. Monte Cely and Dan Walsh picked the Phillies to make it to the World Series, but only Dan had them winning it.
The monthly meeting of the Rogers Hornsby chapter will be held on Thursday, December 17 beginning at 6:00 p.m. at Third Base located at 1717 West 6th Street in Austin. More details to be forthcoming.
Cy provides links to a number of articles from years past that discuss various topics related to modern Sabermetrics including one by Branch Rickey in which Rickey detailed his famous (to many SABR members at least) "team efficiency" equation.
The Houston Astros limped to the finish line in 2009 with a 74-88 record after being swept by the lowly Mets on the final weekend. Starting on September 1, the Astros went 11-20 as the Club fell short in all aspects of the game.
After a winless road trip (0-6) in mid-September, Manager Cecil Cooper was replaced by Third Base Coach, Dave Clark on September 21 on an interim basis. While Clark brought some energy to the position and established better communications, the team did not perform any better with a record of 4-9 in Clark’s 13 games at the helm. A search is currently underway for a new manager and Clark is one of the candidates.
The Astros were well below the National League average in both hitting and pitching. The team scored 643 runs, an average of 3.97 per game and allowed 770, an average of 4.75 per game. Only Pittsburgh and San Diego scored fewer runs and only Washington, Milwaukee and Arizona allowed more. The team On-Base Percentage was .319, ranking 13th in the league. The team ERA of 4.54 also ranked
13th. The Astros led the league in grounding into double plays with 153.
Despite their problems, there were some bright spots in the final month. The Astros swept a four game series against the Phillies in Minute Maid Park early in the month. Miguel Tejada, after slumping in August, finished strong with a 21-game hitting streak including a couple of 4-hit games and he led the league in doubles with 46. His 199 hits were second only to Craig Biggio’s 210 in 1998 in the team’s 48-year history. Michael Bourn continued his breakout year, leading the league in stolen bases with 61 and playing sensational defense in center field which should win him a Gold Glove. Rookie Bud Norris recorded 4 strong starts in September before being shut down after reaching a pre-set innings limit. He pitched 55 innings with the Astros, slightly exceeding the rookie threshold of 50 so he will not be classified as a rookie in 2010 when he should be in the starting rotation.
Tejada led the team in hitting with an average of .313 and Carlos Lee led in home runs with 26, one more than Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence. Lee also led in RBIs with 102 while batting an even .300. Berkman, in an off-year, led the team with a .399 on-base average and a .509 slugging average, but saw his career batting average drop from .302 to .299.
Wandy Rodriguez, the only pitcher on the staff with more than 8 wins, became the staff ace with a 14-12 record and an ERA of 3.02. Roy Oswalt, hampered by nagging injuries, had his worst season with an 8-6 record and a 4.12 ERA. Jose Valverde had 25 saves and LaTroy Hawkins had 11. The bullpen experienced considerable turnover and a total of 18 pitchers won at least one game.
Rebuilding the minor league system is continuing but, for the second straight year, all of the domestic Astro minor league teams had losing records. The 2008 draft class, led by No.1 pick, catcher Jason Castro, looks promising. Castro played well at Double-A Corpus Christi after a mid-season promotion. He should be at Triple-A Round Rock in 2010 but will be given a chance to make the big league roster in spring training. College outfielders T. J. Steele, Jay Shuck and Jon Gaston, all drafted in 2008, had strong showings at High Class A, Lancaster, California in 2009 and should be at Corpus Christi in 2010. High school pitchers, Ross Seaton, Jordan Lyles and Brad Dydalowicz, also drafted in 2008, pitched well at Low Class A Lexington and could also be at Corpus Christi in 2010.
The Astros losing record in 2009 was only their third since Jeff Bagwell’s rookie year in 1991. However, two of the losing seasons were in the last three years. The team obviously needs some reinforcements in order to be competitive, especially in the starting rotation. Some tough decisions must be faced in the off-season with Tejada, Valverde, Hawkins and Geoff Blum eligible for free agency.
Eight members and four guests enjoyed the first-ever Rogers Hornsby Chapter Playoff Watch Party and Cookout on Saturday at the home of Gilbert and Raeanne Martinez.
The only disappointment – aside from the lackluster performance by the St. Louis Cardinals – was the postponement of the late game between the Rockies and the Phillies due to snow in Denver.
The jalapeño-onion burgers were popular, as were the raspberry-filled cupcakes with icing designed to look like baseballs (the cupcakes were courtesy Lucila Martinez, Gilbert Martinez’s sister-in-law).
There was no quiz, but the group grappled with some baseball trivia. Norman Macht pondered how many Hall of Famers (as a player or manager) had won exactly one World Series. He didn’t know how many there have been, but one candidate would be Earl Weaver. Are there others?
Gilbert Martinez repeated a question he asked on the list-serve – Which is the only team, since 1930, that had four players each with 200 or more hits in a season?
With barely a pause, Bill Gilbert named the team: the 1937 Detroit Tigers. The group came up with the four players: G. Walker (213), C. Gehringer (209), P. Fox (208) and H. Greenberg (200).
Gilbert Martinez also shared that a team with three players with 200+ hits each has occurred a handful of times. They are the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs in 1930, the ’35 N.Y. Giants, the ’63 Cardinals, the ’82 Brewers and the ’91 Rangers.
There was some discussion about a fair flyball by Joe Mauer that had been mistakenly called a foul ball in the Yankees-Twins game the night before. There was also some discussion about who the Astros should hire as their next manager. Both Bill Gilbert and Gilbert Martinez said they hoped it would be Tim Bogar, first base coach for the Boston Red Sox, and former Astros player. Bill joked that Bogar’s schedule was about to be wide open (for interview purposes) because the Angels had the Red Sox on the brink of elimination (And Bill was right – the Angels eliminated the Red Sox at Fenway with a dramatic 9th inning come-back the following day).
The next meeting has not yet been scheduled, but will probably be in early November.
With the completion of the 2009 season (well, there is Game #163, Twins-Tigers; more on that in a moment), only four players made it to the 200 hit plateau, one more than last year.
They are Ichiro Suzuki (225) of the Seattle Mariners, Derek Jeter (212) and Robinson Cano (204) of the New York Yankees and Ryan Braun (203) of the Milwaukee Brewers.
As you probably already know, this was Ichiro’s ninth consecutive season of 200+ hits, setting a record for most consecutive 200-hit seasons (breaking Wee Willie Keeler’s mark of eight consecutive seasons). Only Pete Rose has had more 200+ hit seasons; he had 10, a mark that Ichiro will try to tie next season.
Ichiro’s achievement is notable, especially because he started the season on the disabled list – the first time in his MLB career that he’s missed playing time due to an injury. He also missed some playing time in August because of an injury, sitting out a total of 16 games during the season.
All those hits didn’t necessarily translate into runs. According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, Ichiro’s 88 runs scored are the fewest by a player with at least 220 hits in a season.
For Jeter, this was his seventh season of 200+ hits.
For both Cano and Braun, this was their first season of 200+ hits.
It’s not the first time teammates have combined for 200+ hits. In fact, in the 2000’s alone, it’s been done five times, including this year’s Jeter-Cano tandem.
The last time was in 2007 when Magglio Ordonez (216) and Placido Polanco (200) did so. Before that, Alfonso Soriano (209) and Bernie Williams (204) of the Yankees teamed up for 200+ hits in 2002. In 2001, Ichiro (242) and Brett Boone (206) combined for the feat. In 2000, Johnny Damon (214) and Mike Sweeney (206) of the Royals were the dynamic duo.
You may note that all of those instances were done in the American League. The last time a National League duo achieved this was in 1998 when Dante Bichette (219) and Vinny Castillo (206) of the Colorado Rockies did so.
How often have three teammates all reached 200 hits? Since 1930, it’s been done six times – the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs in 1930, the 1935 New York Giants, the 1963 St. Louis Cardinals, the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers and the 1991 Texas Rangers.
Only once since 1930 has four teammates each reach 200 hits in the same season – the 1937 Detroit Tigers.
Miguel Tejada nearly joined the list of 200+ hits, but fell one short. He went 1-4 in the Astros’ last game, leaving him with 199 total hits. It would have been his fourth 200 hit season.
So, what about the one-game playoff between the Tigers and the Twins? Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers currently has 196 hits. Since this 163rd game counts as part of the regular season, he could reach 200. If so, we’ll add an addendum to this report (see update below). It would be his first 200 hit season. In 2005 with the Marlins, he had 198 hits, the closest he’s come to 200.
Joe Mauer of the Twins has 189 hits, so it’s unlikely he’ll reach 200 this season.
UPDATE: In a thrilling 6-5 Twins win over the Tigers in the 12th inning, Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers went 2-5, meaning that he matched his 2005 total of 198 hits. Also, Joe Mauer of the Twins went 2-4, bringing his hit total to 191 for the year.
Larry Dierker is part of Houston Astros history. During his 12-year career (1964 to 1976), he became the team’s winningest living pitcher (139-123, 3.31) now that Joe Niekro has passed. But the two-time All-Star never thought that much about history until he started witnessing some of the oddball events of baseball. He detailed some of these and his acquired taste for the pastime’s history during the Winter Meeting of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research on Jan. 17, 2009, at Texas State University.
In 1992, during a trip to Philadelphia, Mickey Morandini was involved in an unassisted triple play in the sixth inning. Dierker was amazed . . . and curious. A quick check into history revealed that Neal Ball first turned the feat for the Cleveland Indians in 1909; Bill Wambsganss, also of the Indians, did it in 1920.Ron Hansen did it for the Senators.
“I looked up all of them,” Dierker said. “I was on the air and was able to name all of them. It’s the most rare thing in baseball. I credit SABR for producing publications that had such stories.”
Fifteen such plays have dotted the Major League Baseball landscape, the most recent being eight months after Dierker made his appearance before the Hornsby SABR chapter, when former Astro and current Phillies utility player Eric Bruntlett caught a line drive in the ninth inning, touched second and tagged the runner coming from first.
Dierker’s subsequent searches took him to the personal recollections recorded in “Glory of Their Times.” The taped personal recollections gave him “a sense of perspective and heightened my sense of aesthetic value” of baseball, he said. “I’ve thought how baseball differs from other sports we follow in the United States. All of the great sports books have been about baseball and golf. Why is that? A large part of it is because of the playing field. Avid golfers go around and study courses. Baseball people want to see the ballparks, with different outfield configurations. Soldier Field may be great panorama, but the field is the field.”
Beyond the field, there are the statistics, the numbers and the ability to compare players against another and the probability in different situations. In a nutshell, such logic-inducing minutia is meaningless. “One thing left out of managerial thinking is whether a batter has a tendency to draw walks or if he won’t take a walk,” Dierker said. “(Steve) Garvey hit me very well, but never would walk. I would have never thrown him a strike. Knowing that helped the pitchers when I managed. It would have helped me.
“Another thing I got from SABR people concerns the probability of scoring runs, although I prefer to consider the chances of something happening. People say you play the percentages, and I said, ‘Well, tell me the percentages of something happening’ and they couldn’t answer that. I think you have to play the chances. Statistics show that the team that scores first would win 70 percent of the time or something like that. (Jim) Leyland had Jay Bell hitting second, Bonds hitting first, Van Slyke third, Bonilla fourth. Bell was going to get Bonds over to second 95 percent of the time. A lot of stuff I got from SABR was helpful to me in a general sense, but in the heat of managing, with emotions running there’s an intangible way of looking at the game.”
Dierker remembered Derek Bell wanting to hit second, after Biggio and in front of Bagwell, rather than fifth. "Well, who doesn’t" want to bat there? Dierker asked, getting some laughs from the audience. Batting second, Bell told him, would allow him to see more fastballs. Bell’s manager penciled him second on the lineup card and, sure enough, he homered. Dierker left him in the second spot the rest of the year. “You don’t do everything based on everything you know, particularly when you win,” he said. He also learned that more than 50 percent of the time teams that win games score more runs in one inning than the other team. “I decided that I’m playing for the big inning,” he said. “So from an emotional team concept, the statistical move isn’t as important as the psychological move.”
Dierker was asked about the concept of a clutch hitter, whether there was such a thing. He said that although Bill James had studied the concept, the idea is overrated from the fans’ and announcers’ points of view. “The guys I thought were clutch hitters weren’t just the big hitters,” he said. “Jose Cruz hit better from the seventh inning on with a player in scoring position. The reason is because he had a knack for putting the ball in play. Same for Ichiro (Suzuki) and (Pete) Rose. They put the ball in play and seldom strike out. If you put the ball in play, then everything else is luck.
“I’d rather face (Johnny) Bench or (Tony) Perez than, say, Dan Driessen because I could strike the other guys out or get him to pop out. The guy I feared the most was the guy who was hard to strike out.”
Dierker discussed striking out Willie Mays and giving up a 450-foot blast to him. He was asked his thoughts about streaks and slumps and he said “everyone has them” and that “the guys who go to Cooperstown are the ones who have the longest streaks and the shortest slumps.”
Now living in Houston, Dierker left the field as a manager following a seizure in 1999 during the eighth inning of a game in the Astrodome against the San Diego Padres. Subsequently, he wrote “This Ain’t Brain Surgery: How to win the Pennant Without Losing Your Mind.” All that he learned on the field, off the field and in the history books is now going into a musical. At the time he was just waiting for the music. Through it all, two main pieces of knowledge surfaced. “From an emotional team concept, the statistical move isn’t as important as the psychological move,” he said. “And it’s easier to manage a game from the broadcast booth.”
Cy examines how "close and late" batting average and isolated power numbers vary as compared to "non-close and late" numbers over the period from 1952-2008. Could this be due to increased relief specialization?
The next meeting of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter of SABR will be on Saturday, Oct. 10 at the home of Gilbert and Raeanne Martinez.
We’ll watch both National League Division Series games that day (the only two scheduled for that day).
This will be an open house of sorts — feel free to arrive an hour before the first pitch of the first game (MLB has not yet announced the start times for these games, but I anticipate a late afternoon start for the first game).
Gilbert will grill burgers, so if you’d like to bring side dishes, appetizers, snacks, beverages or the like, feel free.
Everyone is welcome to stay as long as they’d like.
As soon as MLB announces start times for the games, I’ll send out another reminder.
For directions and more information, please contact Gilbert at gmartinez46 AT austin.rr.com.