Cy provides links to a number of articles from years past that discuss various topics related to modern Sabermetrics including one by Branch Rickey in which Rickey detailed his famous (to many SABR members at least) "team efficiency" equation.
Eight members and four guests enjoyed the first-ever Rogers Hornsby Chapter Playoff Watch Party and Cookout on Saturday at the home of Gilbert and Raeanne Martinez.
The only disappointment – aside from the lackluster performance by the St. Louis Cardinals – was the postponement of the late game between the Rockies and the Phillies due to snow in Denver.
The jalapeño-onion burgers were popular, as were the raspberry-filled cupcakes with icing designed to look like baseballs (the cupcakes were courtesy Lucila Martinez, Gilbert Martinez’s sister-in-law).
There was no quiz, but the group grappled with some baseball trivia. Norman Macht pondered how many Hall of Famers (as a player or manager) had won exactly one World Series. He didn’t know how many there have been, but one candidate would be Earl Weaver. Are there others?
Gilbert Martinez repeated a question he asked on the list-serve – Which is the only team, since 1930, that had four players each with 200 or more hits in a season?
With barely a pause, Bill Gilbert named the team: the 1937 Detroit Tigers. The group came up with the four players: G. Walker (213), C. Gehringer (209), P. Fox (208) and H. Greenberg (200).
Gilbert Martinez also shared that a team with three players with 200+ hits each has occurred a handful of times. They are the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs in 1930, the ’35 N.Y. Giants, the ’63 Cardinals, the ’82 Brewers and the ’91 Rangers.
There was some discussion about a fair flyball by Joe Mauer that had been mistakenly called a foul ball in the Yankees-Twins game the night before. There was also some discussion about who the Astros should hire as their next manager. Both Bill Gilbert and Gilbert Martinez said they hoped it would be Tim Bogar, first base coach for the Boston Red Sox, and former Astros player. Bill joked that Bogar’s schedule was about to be wide open (for interview purposes) because the Angels had the Red Sox on the brink of elimination (And Bill was right – the Angels eliminated the Red Sox at Fenway with a dramatic 9th inning come-back the following day).
The next meeting has not yet been scheduled, but will probably be in early November.
Larry Dierker is part of Houston Astros history. During his 12-year career (1964 to 1976), he became the team’s winningest living pitcher (139-123, 3.31) now that Joe Niekro has passed. But the two-time All-Star never thought that much about history until he started witnessing some of the oddball events of baseball. He detailed some of these and his acquired taste for the pastime’s history during the Winter Meeting of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research on Jan. 17, 2009, at Texas State University.
In 1992, during a trip to Philadelphia, Mickey Morandini was involved in an unassisted triple play in the sixth inning. Dierker was amazed . . . and curious. A quick check into history revealed that Neal Ball first turned the feat for the Cleveland Indians in 1909; Bill Wambsganss, also of the Indians, did it in 1920.Ron Hansen did it for the Senators.
“I looked up all of them,” Dierker said. “I was on the air and was able to name all of them. It’s the most rare thing in baseball. I credit SABR for producing publications that had such stories.”
Fifteen such plays have dotted the Major League Baseball landscape, the most recent being eight months after Dierker made his appearance before the Hornsby SABR chapter, when former Astro and current Phillies utility player Eric Bruntlett caught a line drive in the ninth inning, touched second and tagged the runner coming from first.
Dierker’s subsequent searches took him to the personal recollections recorded in “Glory of Their Times.” The taped personal recollections gave him “a sense of perspective and heightened my sense of aesthetic value” of baseball, he said. “I’ve thought how baseball differs from other sports we follow in the United States. All of the great sports books have been about baseball and golf. Why is that? A large part of it is because of the playing field. Avid golfers go around and study courses. Baseball people want to see the ballparks, with different outfield configurations. Soldier Field may be great panorama, but the field is the field.”
Beyond the field, there are the statistics, the numbers and the ability to compare players against another and the probability in different situations. In a nutshell, such logic-inducing minutia is meaningless. “One thing left out of managerial thinking is whether a batter has a tendency to draw walks or if he won’t take a walk,” Dierker said. “(Steve) Garvey hit me very well, but never would walk. I would have never thrown him a strike. Knowing that helped the pitchers when I managed. It would have helped me.
“Another thing I got from SABR people concerns the probability of scoring runs, although I prefer to consider the chances of something happening. People say you play the percentages, and I said, ‘Well, tell me the percentages of something happening’ and they couldn’t answer that. I think you have to play the chances. Statistics show that the team that scores first would win 70 percent of the time or something like that. (Jim) Leyland had Jay Bell hitting second, Bonds hitting first, Van Slyke third, Bonilla fourth. Bell was going to get Bonds over to second 95 percent of the time. A lot of stuff I got from SABR was helpful to me in a general sense, but in the heat of managing, with emotions running there’s an intangible way of looking at the game.”
Dierker remembered Derek Bell wanting to hit second, after Biggio and in front of Bagwell, rather than fifth. "Well, who doesn’t" want to bat there? Dierker asked, getting some laughs from the audience. Batting second, Bell told him, would allow him to see more fastballs. Bell’s manager penciled him second on the lineup card and, sure enough, he homered. Dierker left him in the second spot the rest of the year. “You don’t do everything based on everything you know, particularly when you win,” he said. He also learned that more than 50 percent of the time teams that win games score more runs in one inning than the other team. “I decided that I’m playing for the big inning,” he said. “So from an emotional team concept, the statistical move isn’t as important as the psychological move.”
Dierker was asked about the concept of a clutch hitter, whether there was such a thing. He said that although Bill James had studied the concept, the idea is overrated from the fans’ and announcers’ points of view. “The guys I thought were clutch hitters weren’t just the big hitters,” he said. “Jose Cruz hit better from the seventh inning on with a player in scoring position. The reason is because he had a knack for putting the ball in play. Same for Ichiro (Suzuki) and (Pete) Rose. They put the ball in play and seldom strike out. If you put the ball in play, then everything else is luck.
“I’d rather face (Johnny) Bench or (Tony) Perez than, say, Dan Driessen because I could strike the other guys out or get him to pop out. The guy I feared the most was the guy who was hard to strike out.”
Dierker discussed striking out Willie Mays and giving up a 450-foot blast to him. He was asked his thoughts about streaks and slumps and he said “everyone has them” and that “the guys who go to Cooperstown are the ones who have the longest streaks and the shortest slumps.”
Now living in Houston, Dierker left the field as a manager following a seizure in 1999 during the eighth inning of a game in the Astrodome against the San Diego Padres. Subsequently, he wrote “This Ain’t Brain Surgery: How to win the Pennant Without Losing Your Mind.” All that he learned on the field, off the field and in the history books is now going into a musical. At the time he was just waiting for the music. Through it all, two main pieces of knowledge surfaced. “From an emotional team concept, the statistical move isn’t as important as the psychological move,” he said. “And it’s easier to manage a game from the broadcast booth.”
Cy examines how "close and late" batting average and isolated power numbers vary as compared to "non-close and late" numbers over the period from 1952-2008. Could this be due to increased relief specialization?
The next meeting of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter of SABR will be on Saturday, Oct. 10 at the home of Gilbert and Raeanne Martinez.
We’ll watch both National League Division Series games that day (the only two scheduled for that day).
This will be an open house of sorts — feel free to arrive an hour before the first pitch of the first game (MLB has not yet announced the start times for these games, but I anticipate a late afternoon start for the first game).
Gilbert will grill burgers, so if you’d like to bring side dishes, appetizers, snacks, beverages or the like, feel free.
Everyone is welcome to stay as long as they’d like.
As soon as MLB announces start times for the games, I’ll send out another reminder.
For directions and more information, please contact Gilbert at gmartinez46 AT austin.rr.com.
Mike Capps, the radio voice of the Round Rock Express, was a guest at the meeting. He gave us some insights on the Round Rock players that will be competing for positions with the Astros next year. Mike has been selected to be the play-by-play announcer for the Triple-A Championship game in Oklahoma City next Tuesday which will be telecast on one of the ESPN channels. Chris Chambliss will be working with Mike at the game.
Capitalizing on the excitement earlier this week when Roy Oswalt broke the Club record with 16 no-decisions for the Astros, Gilbert Martinez did some quick research to determine that Bert Blyleven holds the major league record for no-decisions in one season with 20 for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1979 when he was 12-5 in 37 starts.
The trivia contest this month required the identification of the career leaders in hits and home runs for the 14 American League franchises. Dan Walsh blew away the competition by getting 23 of 28 but he didn’t know that Aubrey Huff is Tampa Bay’s career home run leader. He won a coupon that paid for his dinner.
The date for the October meeting will be announced in the next few days. Plans are to schedule it in conjunction with one or two Division Series games.
Fellow chapter member Tom Wancho was interviewed by announcer Mike Capps during the fifth innning of the September 6 Round Rock Express game at Dell Diamond.
To listen to Tom’s interview, click below (or you can download interview):
The audio clip runs for 10 minutes and 46 seconds. If you download, it’s about 4MB in size.
The Rogers Hornsby Chapter of SABR held its monthly get-together at Third Base in Austin on August 25, 2009. Six members were in attendance. It was the 33rd consecutive month that the Chapter has held a meeting.
The highlight of the meeting was a very well researched quiz involving nicknames by Dan Walsh. Who knew that Toby Harrah’s real first name was Colbert? With 70 possible correct answers, Bill Gilbert, fresh off the DL, won with 53 1/2 edging out Mike Dillon.
There was some spirited discussion involving the long odds of unassisted triple plays, 4-homer games and perfect games as we watched Joba Chamberlain get lit up by the Texas Rangers.
The next meeting is scheduled for 6 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 17 at Third Base.
The September 2009 monthly meeting of the Hornsby Chapter will be at 6 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 17, at the downtown location of the Third Base sports bar, 1717 West Sixth Street, Austin.
The annual Winter Meeting of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter has been set for Saturday, January 16, 2010 on the campus of Texas State University. Houston Astros play-by-play announcer Bill Brown will be the headline speaker. There will also be a panel discussion on "Hot Topics in Baseball" as well as several other presentations.
You may contact any member of the organizing committee if you have any questions or suggestions: