Category: Hornsby News

June 2024 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

The June chapter meeting at Ryan Pollack and Lauren Cohen’s house featured a delicious sandwich platter with sides, desserts, live baseball broadcasts and a nifty Negro Leagues baseball quiz.

A dozen chapter members and guests talked about the strong start by the Yankees and Phillies and wondered if the Rangers and Astros have enough time to overcome slow starts and a string of injuries to each club’s respective starting rotations.

We also noted the recognition of Josh Gibson’s lifetime batting average (.372) that now sits atop baseball’s record book as MLB has fully integrated Negro Leagues records with MLB statistics.

The quiz, inspired by a visit to the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum by Raeanne and Gilbert Martinez and Ryan in April, sparked an epic clash of trivia titans, Jerry Miller and Jim Baker. After the regulation 20 questions (written by Ryan, Raeanne and Gilbert), Jerry and Jim found themselves in a tie, 11 points each.

This triggered a tiebreaker in which each combatant was tasked by Ryan to name a player enshrined as a statue on the playing field at the heart of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. First contestant to incorrectly name a player would lose the tiebreaker, Ryan declared.

Josh Gibson, Jerry said for his first guess (correct).

Satchel Paige, Jim countered (correct).

Cool Papa Bell, Jerry said (correct).

Bullet Joe Rogan, Jim offered (incorrect, but under his breath, Jim said Rogan ought to be immortalized as a statue!).

For a list of all players and executives on the Field of Legends, check out this entry on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negro_Leagues_Baseball_Museum

And with that, Jerry outlasted Jim in a battle for the ages. Try your hand at Ryan’s quiz below. The answers follow the questions. (Note: Ryan deviated slightly for the tiebreaker depicted below.)

Many thanks to Ryan and Lauren for sharing their home with us for this month’s meeting!

This was the 211th consecutive month with a monthly meeting, a streak that dates to December 2006.

Very Difficult Trivia

Chapter member Tom Thayer shared on the chapter email list a novel question that he dubbed “very difficult trivia.” Tom said he would be very impressed if anyone knew the answer without looking it up.

“This position player was a rookie when he was 20 years old,” Tom wrote. “He played until he was 34. In his age 32 season, he set a new personal best in home runs. Not only was it a career high, but it was more than double the amount of home runs he had hit in his ENTIRE career up until that point.

“I am not aware of any position player with a similar profile – even approaching doubling his career home runs in a single season that late in his career. I know of another player who mid-career almost equaled his career home runs in a single season. And it is possible that there have been pitchers who have done this (i.e. had 1 career home run and then had a season with 2 late in their career).

“Who is this player? Tom asked, challenging chapter members.

After about 10 hours of nothing but crickets on the email list, Tom took pity on his fellow chapter members and offered additional hints.

“He was born outside of the U.S., though you can’t tell from his name. The high school from which he matriculated in New Hampshire is now a college. He missed part of one season due to a war effort. His nickname is the same as a Tim Conway character. He was the personal catcher of one of the greatest pitchers of all time. He organized one of the early ballplayer tours of Japan. He was a proponent of women’s baseball, arranging a women’s baseball tour of Japan and Korea. He later managed the Rockford Peaches (no word on his stance on crying in baseball).”

Various incorrect guesses were made such as Hack Wilson, while some chapter members investigated possible answers that didn’t fit the criteria upon further research.

The Tim Conway character hint prompted chapter member Mike McNulty to guess “[s]ome ballplayer nicknamed ‘Dorf.’”

Tom ruled that a correct answer (technically) and filled in the rest.

“The answer is Eddie “Dorf” Ainsmith,” Tom wrote. “I imagine most have never heard of him since he played over a century ago.

“He was born in Russia (nee Anshmedt) and grew up in Massachusetts. He graduated from Colby Academy (now Colby College) before beginning his pro career at the age of 17. For most of his career, he was a consistently bad hitter with an OPS+ around 60. He was Walter Johnson’s personal catcher – he caught more of Johnson’s innings (1271) than any other catcher.

“He served stateside in the WWI war effort in 1918, but that year was when his hitting started to turn around. He posted an 80 OPS+ that year and then 115 in 1919. However, still not much power as he only had 6 career HRs through 1920. He posted an 82 OPS+ in 1921 with 0 HRs. Then, in 1922 with the Cardinals (managed by Branch Rickey) he surged to 13 HRs, which was top 10 in the league. The Cardinals played in a hitting-friendly stadium, but not extremely so. He was 3rd on the team in WAR and out-homered slugging first baseman Jack Fournier. He only hit 3 more HRs the rest of his career.

“The women’s baseball tour of Asia was a failure with the lady ballplayers getting stranded – one of them was washed overboard when her family was eventually able to pay for her return.

“The closest analogue to Ainsmith in terms of power surges would be Ed Williamson. He had 8 career HRs until he was 26 yo (his 7th season) when he jacked 27 HRs for the Cubs, aided by a short RF. Ken Williams had 40 career HRs when he hit 39 in 1922. He was 32 yo at the time, but it was only his 7th season in baseball, with two of them just cups of coffee.

“Among more recent players, Bert Campaneris had 24 career HRs when he hit 22 HRs in his 7th season when he was 28 yo. Pitcher Mike Hampton had no career HRs when he joined the Rockies at age 28 – he hit 7 HRs in his first season with them.”

Tom shared with me that he has long been aware of Ainsmith because his entry is near the front of Baseball Encyclopedia. More recently, Tom said he dug deeper into Ainsmith’s career while working on a catcher database.

Thanks, Tom, for the challenging trivia question and thorough follow-up!

Research Spotlight

For the past five years, Jim Baker has dedicated himself to examining the best single-game offensive performances in baseball history using fantasy baseball stats. Tallying total bases, runs, RBI, walks, stolen bases (and hit-by-pitch), Jim has identified dozens of individual game performances that top his Big Game List. He has reviewed all four-home-run games and most three-home-run games. Now, he’s nearly done compiling his list.

Here’s the top eleven performances.

“I have about 90 three-homer games to check,” Jim shared with me. “I am 100 percent certain none of them will impact the Top 10! (Very conveniently, all of the Top 10 games are 30 or more points.)”

“I just found two games where Sammy Sosa had three homers and was then taken out for his final plate appearance,” Jim wrote later. “I wonder why that happened. Surely everyone knows the record is four in a game and that less than two dozen guys have done it….”

The most recent occurrence of a big game to add to Jim’s list was Adolis Garcia with the Texas Rangers on April 22, 2023. His 29-point game ties for fifth on the list, just missing the top eleven performances.

Next meeting: San Antonio Missions game on July 14

After last year’s successful outing to a San Antonio Missions game in September, the chapter is scheduling another outing to Nelson Wolff Municipal Stadium at 1 p.m. Sunday, July 14. The Double-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres, the Missions will host the Amarillo Sod Poodles, affiliate of the Arizona Diamondbacks. I have purchased two tickets in Section 200, Row V, Seats 11 and 12, which are shaded seats.

If you’d like to join us, please use the following link to purchase your own tickets: https://mlb.tickets.com/?orgId=53849&agency=MILB_MPV&eventId=19913&tfl=#/event/E19913/seatmap/?selectBuyers=false&minPrice=8&maxPrice=30&quantity=2&sort=price_desc&ada=false&seatSelection=true&onlyCoupon=true&onlyVoucher=false

Hope to see you at the ballpark next month!

Looking ahead, we’re hoping to have a Zoom meeting in August. We’re working on those details and will share them next month.

Negro Leagues Baseball Quiz

Ryan, Gilbert and Raeanne visited the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum on April 19th. This quiz is inspired by their visit. Also: MLB recently integrated Negro League statistics into the MLB historical record. Was this decision entirely because of the visit of our three intrepid SABR members? Who can prove that it wasn’t? 

1. The Kansas City Monarchs brought what baseball innovation to the Negro Leagues in 1930?
2. This 19-year MLB pitcher, who led the league with a 1.085 WHIP in 1973 and is most known for his 8 seasons with the Red Sox in which he went 122-81 with a 3.36 ERA, is the son of a Negro Leagues pitcher.
3. In February 1920, owners met in this city to form the Negro National League.
4. This Texan (born in 1879 in Calvert, 90 minutes northeast of Austin) was nicknamed “The Father of Negro League Baseball” for his involvement in founding and administering the Negro National League.
5. This MLB great used a portion of his HOF induction speech in 1966 to advocate for the HOF election of Negro Leaguers.
6. This Negro League player and MLB scout / coach was the subject of Joe Posnanski’s 2007 book The Soul of Baseball. The player was inducted into the Hall of Fame as an executive 16 years after his death.
7. In what city did the Homestead Grays play the majority of their home games?
8. What did Satchel Paige nickname his favorite pitch?
9. Who was the owner of the Newark Eagles when they won the Negro Leagues World Series in 1946? 
10. This Hall of Fame third baseman, nicknamed “Hooks” and “Squat”, maintained a .319 batting average across 11 Negro League seasons. In 1947 he turned down an invitation from Bill Veeck to play in the Cleveland Indians organization. 
11. Which Negro League player earned the nickname “Pork Chops” because that was all he ate (along with french fries) while on the road?
12. According to his Hall of Fame plaque, Satchel Paige was said to have struck out how many major leaguers in an exhibition game?
13. Meiji Jingu Stadium, now home of the Tokyo Yakult Swallows and subject to demolition in the next few years, is one of the few still-operating ballparks in which Babe Ruth played and hit a home run. Which Negro Leagues star was the first to hit a home run there in 1927, a year after the stadium opened?
14. Writing for the Daily Worker, New York City’s Communist Party newspaper, which columnist condemned racial discrimination in baseball in the 1930s and ‘40s, pushing Major League Baseball to integrate?
15. In 1948, this Hall of Famer, best known as a five-tool shortstop, played a handful of games at third base for the Memphis Red Sox while his son played short instead.
16. Three women played in the Negro Leagues, but this one was the only one who pitched. She said she learned her curveball from Satchel Paige. 
17. This first baseman hit .345 and slugged .589 during his long career that was spent entirely with one team. He played in a record 11 East-West All Star Games and was part of the second class of Negro League players to be inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1972.
18. This Hall of Fame first baseman with an equine sobriquet, along with the answers to #10 and #15 above, formed the so-called ”‘Million Dollar Infield” on the Newark Eagles in the late 1930s.
19. Which baseball-loving rocker donated hundreds of baseballs signed by Negro League players to the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, where they are on display?
20. Considered one of the most versatile players in baseball history, this Negro Leaguer played year-round in the U.S. and abroad. In the Mexican league in 1938, he threw what was likely the first no-hitter in the history of the league, hit over .300, and led the league in strikeouts.

Answers

1. Night games
2. Luis Tiant. LT Sr pitched for the New York Cubans, among other teams
3. Kansas City
4. Rube Foster
5. Ted Williams
6. Buck O’Neil
7. Pittsburgh
8. Bee Ball
9. Effa Manley
10. Ray Dandridge
11. Hank Aaron
12. 21
13. Biz Mackey
14. Lester Rodney
15. Willie Wells
16. Mamie “Peanut” Johnson
17. Buck Leonard 
18. George “Mule” Suttles
19. Geddy Lee
20. Martín Dihigo

Tiebreakers:

• The Negro Leagues Baseball Museum is located at which KC historical district?
  • 18th & Vine
• What museum sits directly across from, and shares the same building with, the NLBM?
  • American Jazz Museum
• The NLBM concludes with a replica baseball field on which stand players and other key figures from NLBM history. Even an umpire. Whoever can name the most people on the field without getting one wrong – e.g. you get one wrong and you’re out — wins!
  
  You have 3 minutes to write down your answers, and then you have to read from your list!
  • Catcher: Josh Gibson
  • 1B: Buck Leonard
  • 2B: Pop Lloyd
  • SS: Judy Johnson
  • 3B: Ray Dandridge
  • OF: Cool Papa Bell, Oscar Charleston, Leon Day
  • Pitcher: Satchel Paige
  • Batter: Martin Dihigo
  • Rube Foster
  • Buck O’Neil
  • Ump: Bob Motley

The next monthly meeting will be at 1 p.m. Saturday, June 1, at the home of Ryan Pollack in North Austin. He’ll provide sandwich platters, while guests are invited to bring side dishes, desserts and beverages to share. Please RSVP to Ryan directly (ryan9379@gmail.com) by Thursday, May 30, with what you plan to bring, and he’ll share his home address.

May 2024 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

A thrilling come-from-behind victory for the Round Rock Express, a delicious pregame barbecue dinner and a mesmerizing post-game Star Wars-themed drone show demonstrated that the force was very much with us at the May chapter meeting on Saturday.

A small group of six chapter members and guests watched the Express fall behind early against the Las Vegas Aviators, but four runs in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings pushed the home team to a 4-3 victory.

A smaller group of four enjoyed dinner at the Salt Lick prior to the game.

For the first time, some in the group saw the new rules related to the automatic ball-strike system. Express season ticket holder Andy York filled us in. For Friday through Sunday games, the home plate umpire calls balls and strikes as usual, but the batter, pitcher or catcher may challenge a call by patting the top of their head. The umpire will then announce to the crowd that the call is being challenged, and the animation of the pitch will be displayed on the big screen. We saw several instances of a challenge, with calls going in favor of the umpire’s call and against.

Evidence of Star Wars weekend was abundant at the stadium. Special guests wearing Star Wars costumes were scattered throughout Dell Diamond, and Jedi training was provided for young fans. Star Wars-themed shirts and toy light sabers were sold in the gift shop, and special food offerings were available at concessions such as Vader Taters and Jar Jar Links.

The group also had a chance to chat briefly with Express General Manager Tim Jackson, who was making his way around the stands visiting with fans.

Results from Chapter Bylaws Voting

From May 1 to 10, current chapter members were invited to evaluate proposed chapter bylaws and vote for or against them online. Thirty-two of the 81 current chapter members successfully cast votes: 30 members voted for the bylaws, and 2 voted against.

With the adoption of these bylaws, the Rogers Hornsby Chapter further adheres to SABR HQ’s guidelines.

These bylaws go into effect immediately.

Many thanks to Ryan Pollack for his assistance in setting up the Google form for the bylaws election and compiling the list of current members. And many thanks to the chapter members who participated in this vote (you know who you are!).

Predictatron 2024 Update: Gay leads the way!

Sunday, May 5, 2024, edition

By Jim Baker

We have a new leader in our contest in the person of Mr. Gay. Being the first player to cross over the 600-point threshold has allowed him to push past previous leader overall Mr. Rogers while also taking charge of the Raeanne Martinez Division lead.

Mr. Larson has found himself atop the Brian Rogers Division when that same Mr. Rogers lost 10 points on the week and fell back to second place. Mssrs. McIntosh and McNulty are not far behind, being currently tied for third place just four points off the chase. The Martinez Division lead previously belonged to Mr. Miller, but a downturn of fortune has seen him drop to third, 19 points off the pace. Meanwhile, Mr. Siegel maintains his hold on second place in that division.

For the second time in a row, Mr. Harrell is our Player of the Week. Last week, he scored 89 points to pace the field and this time around he led the contest with 57. This allowed him to jump from tenth to seventh in the Martinez Division. That’s a 35 percent increase in points in a two-week period for the rookie. Such is life in the early going of Predictatron!

The largest standings jump was experienced by Mr. Baker, who went up four spots from ninth to fifth in the Rogers Division, facilitated by a second-best showing of 43 points. On the other end of the spectrum, Mr. Wancho and Mr. Martinez both fell five places each and are now situated in seventh and last respectively.

According to a recent study, 84 percent of the participants in this contest consider themselves to be baseball fans. As such, we spend quite a bit of our time angry about our game. Myopic umpires, vexing rule changes, callous owners, all-too-often-injured players, showoffs and show boaters, incompetent announcers—all those and more are often the target of our anger and frustration. In the context of this contest, our anger can be directed at only one place: teams that don’t comply with our expectations. As we have long since learned, over- and underachievement is the bane of the Predictatroner on the make.

With that in mind, here are the teams that are hurting us the most:

35 – Houston: This is the biggest shocker of 2024 so far, isn’t it? The Astros rose to competency in 2015 after riding the train to Tank Town and loading up on talent, so we’ve grown accustomed to them playing at a certain level of decency. They’re clearly not going to get up to that level this year, but they could get back to .500, an achievement that would make us all happy, especially the three players who Locked them.
32 – Miami: The Marlins have been bad before (8-23 in .500 seasons coming into 2024), but never this bad. Their .519 showing last year gave us the expectation of high-end mediocrity at the very least, so this 1962 Mets-level winning percentage is putting a real hurt on us.
26 Chicago (A): It’s gotten better. Since jumping off a cliff to start the season at 3-22, they’ve gone 5-5. This sort of play will keep them out of the bad pages of the history books and off of lists like this one—provided they can maintain the recent showing and not the previous way of doing things.
24 – Cleveland: Relax, Guardians, it’s the American League Central, for pete’s sake. You don’t need 105 wins to take the title in this division.
23 Colorado: The Rockies have sunk to the White Sox level, which is an especially huge problem for the six players in our midst who named them as their National League Lock. Make no mistake: we all thought they’d be terrible—just not 1935 Boston Braves terrible.
22 Philadelphia: Given that every last one of us said they’d make the playoffs and the field average is 89 wins, it’s not like the Phillies snuck up on us. However, they’ve been playing like the best team in baseball of late (in spite of dragging around the carcass of Nick Castellanos and losing Trea Turner to injury), and it’s hurting us. Even the most-ambitious Phillies pick—Mr. Crombar at 94 wins—is costing 17 points at the moment.

On a happier note, the Braves unpleasant 1-5 week brought them right in line with where we all hoped they would be in 2024, and they now rank as one of our best collective picks!

Through games of Sunday, May 5, or 21.6 percent of the 2024 season:

Awardatron Update

(Shared via email to the chapter Google Group list on May 5)

By Ryan Pollack

Greetings and salutations, award predictors! It’s a little over a month into the season. Time to take a pulse on where the nascent award races stand, especially as compared to our pre-reason picks.

AL MVP

Prediction favorites: Soto, Julio Rodríguez, Rutschman

Award favorites: Soto, Henderson, Witt Jr.

Much to my personal dismay, Juan Soto has been in the Bronx everything he was supposed to be but didn’t accomplish fully to everyone’s expectations in San Diego. Steamer (a well-regarded projection system) has him finishing the season with 37 HR, an OBP of .423, and slightly below average defense (his best since 2021) for 8 WAR. I cannot believe this is only his age-25 season and his walk year. The man is about to get $$$paid$$$. 

That projected 8 WAR figure is nearly 1 WAR clear of the next closest projection – Gunnar “In play, Gunn(s)” Henderson. Last year’s AL ROY has taken his game to another level, smacking 10 HR already alongside excellent defense at shortstop to power the Orioles’ playoff hopes. Steamer projects him for a full season of 35 HR and a decent .339 OBP that contribute to 7 WAR. Pay the man already, Mike Elias!!! (And Adley too, while you’re at it. And Corbin. And Grayson. And Jordan. etc.)

Just behind him in the AL WAR projections is Bobby Witt Jr., who of course got his big payday during the offseason. Witt Jr. is helping his Royals surpass everyone’s pre-season expectations. It’s a long, long season but the early signs look very good. Steamer projects him for 27 HR, the same OBP as Henderson, and just slightly worse defense for 6.6 WAR.

Others of note: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Aaron Judge.

NL MVP

Prediction favorites: Betts, Acuña Jr., Freeman/Turner/Harper

Award favorites: Betts, Acuña Jr., Tatis Jr.

Mookie Betts is the destroyer of worlds, especially a world where he plays competent shortstop and where Ronald Acuña, Jr. is off to a slow start. Betts’ projected 8.4 WAR is clear of Acuña Jr.’s 6.5 by a significant margin. The latter’s slow start is partially to blame; so far Acuña Jr.’s projections are down to 27 HR. That would be a significant disappointment after last year’s total of 41. 

Others of note: Ohtani (yes, even without the pitching), William Contreras (who would have a narrative edge if the somewhat-underdog Brewers made the playoffs), Will Smith (of the Dodgers, although I would be inclined to vote for the reliever Will Smith, having witnessed him give up a grand slam to Adley Rutschman in Kansas City a couple of weeks ago).

AL Cy Young

Prediction favorites: Burnes, Kirby, Gausman

Award favorites: Skubal, Luis Castillo, Gilbert

Tarik Skubal has more or less maintained his 2023 breakout season so far, giving Tigers fans something to dream about. The “one stat” I judge pitchers by is strikeout rate minus walk rate (K-BB%) and Skubal’s is 4th among AL starters at 25.4%. If you need more stats, his hard-hit rate (% of batted balls hit 95 MPH or higher) is 2nd among AL starters at 28.9%.  

That Mariners rotation … whew. Castillo is 6th among AL starters in K-BB% and Gilbert is 12th. Kirby, whom many of you voted for, is 7th. Bryce Miller 14th. Yowza. (Thankfully for my Orioles and for your votes, Corbin Burnes is not far behind at 15th.)

NL Cy Young

Prediction favorites: Strider, Gallen, Yamamoto

Award favorites: Wheeler, Glasnow, Webb

Yeah, so … remember that you get to change 1 prediction at the All Star Break 🙂 I’m going to guess that the 11 of you (out of 17) who predicted Strider would win this award will change your prediction. Juuuuuust … have a feeling. 

What more can I say about Wheeler that I haven’t already said in this space? Dude’s underrated, which I think tends to happen with so many high finishes in Cy Young voting but no wins. He is a big part of the reason why the Phillies starters lead baseball in fWAR. 

Other names to watch: Cease, Gray, Imanaga

AL Rookie of the Year

Prediction favorites: Holliday, Carter, Langford

Award favorites: Colton Cowser, Mason Miller, Wilyer Abreu

Welllllll Jackson Holliday’s MLB debut definitely didn’t go as planned.  A 50% strikeout rate with hardly any walks is struggling in a way that guys like Gunnar and Adley never did. The kid will likely be fine; he’s still 20. And technically he could come back up in, say, mid or late May, set the league on fire, and still win the award. Gunnar was not great until June of last year and still won the award. But Jackson will have a large hill to climb. Perhaps the O’s will hold him back until next year and give him another, better shot at it. 

Wyatt Langford has also looked overmatched. He’s hitting .224/.295/.293. Baseball is hard. But his teammate Carter is hanging in there with a decent .328 OBP and great .472 SLG. 

As an O’s fan, I’m fully on board the Colton Cowser ROY train. Like many sensations, he’s playing above his head with a .378 BABIP (.290-.300 is more normal) and a 31.6% HR/FB rate (10% is the MLB norm, although power hitters can exceed that regularly). His 35.8% strikeout rate is concerning, although his 9.5% walk rate is good. (He literally just walked as I’m typing this.) He will have to adjust. But his .377 xWOBA is still very good. He is hitting the ball hard and on a line and he’s just 24.  (As I’m typing this, a couple hours later, Cowser has just doubled.)

Mason Miller … well, these days I’d love to trade Craig Kimbrel for him straight up. If Oakland wants, they can demand a king’s ransom for this kid at the trade deadline. He’s struck out 53.7% of the batters he’s faced. Over half!! It’s not yet a full season, but if it held, it would be the highest strikeout rate in a full season in a decade — Aroldis Chapman struck out 52.5% of the batters he faced in 2014. (Kimbrel himself had a nice 50.2% strikeout rate in 2012 — I’d love it if he rediscovered that particular form.)

Other names to watch: Wenceel Perez, David Schneider, Austin Wells

NL Rookie of the Year

Prediction favorites: Yamamoto, Chourio, Jung Hoo Lee

Award favorites: Imanaga, Yamamoto, Andy Pages

Here’s another area where your favorites line up with who’s on pace to win. Yamamoto has been excellent, maybe outshined by only his countryman Imanaga in Chicago.  It’s going to be tight between these two. 

Other names to watch: Jared Jones, Mitchell Parker, Joey Ortiz

AL Manager of the Year

Prediction favorites: Servais (Mariners), Hyde (Orioles), Quatraro (Royals)

Award favorites: Vogt (Guardians), Quatraro, Servais

The Guardians have so far exceeded all expectations under first-year manager Stephen Vogt. According to projections I aggregate from multiple sources every morning, they’ve raised their playoff chances about 32 percentage points, from “not going to happen” to “right on the bubble” in the first month. Given that MOY awards typically are “manager of the team that exceeds expectations the most”, I feel confident in saying he’s an early favorite.

Matt Quatraro’s Royals are right behind. Their playoff chances are still in the “not going to happen” range, but like Cleveland they’ve been one of the largest positive surprises in the AL. I saw two Orioles-Royals games in mid-April. Both were tense affairs, far more stressful than I’d expected given how the Royals did in 2023. (But damn, could we just NOT hit Alec Marsh. Also, if Salvador Perez doesn’t get elected into the HOF, I’m convinced KC fans will travel en masse to Cooperstown and storm the Museum in a protest/riot. They loooooooooove him there.)

Scott Servais’ Mariners are licking their lips. Houston’s failure to launch has opened up the AL West. The Rangers have been disappointing, but the Mariners have responded by playing decent baseball. I currently have them and the Rangers in the playoffs, with Houston on the outside looking in. Regardless of what happens, the AL West may be a tense affair this year. 

Others to watch: Cora (Red Sox), Boone (Yankees)

NL Manager of the Year

Prediction favorites: Counsell (Cubs), Shildt (Padres), Bell (Reds) / Roberts (Dodgers)

Award favorites: Murphy (Brewers), Counsell (Cubs), Shildt

The Cubs have raised their playoff chances the most in the NL, but many expected them to be good. Fewer people expected the Brewers to be good, which is why I think Pat Murphy is the frontrunner for this award. Freddy Peralta has been excellent and William Contreras is playing like an MVP candidate — although to be fair he did sneakily put up almost 6 WAR last year at age 25. So maybe we should’ve seen this coming. Pat will get the credit if the Brewers make the postseason. 

Others to watch: Thomson (Phillies) 

Next Meeting: Potluck at Ryan Pollack’s House!

The next monthly meeting will be at 1 p.m. Saturday, June 1, at the home of Ryan Pollack in North Austin. He’ll provide sandwich platters, while guests are invited to bring side dishes, desserts and beverages to share. Please RSVP to Ryan directly (ryan9379@gmail.com) by Thursday, May 30, with what you plan to bring, and he’ll share his home address.

April 2024 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

A baseball novel that weaves a tale spanning rural Arkansas, the Polo Grounds and Yankee Stadium, the start of the 2024 season, the (seeming) exoneration of Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani and a challenging quiz about baseball’s expansion teams gave us a lot to talk about at the April meeting on Sunday.

Our fantastic hosts – Bailey Hall and her parents, Nicole Bryan-Hall and Brian Hall – provided the perfect venue for 14 members and guests to hear author and Larry Dierker Chapter member Mike Vance tell us about his recently published book, “Wingo: The Remarkable Life of an Unremarkable Man.”

Vance read from “Wingo,” the first of a duology, depicting a fictional character interacting with baseball legends and locations in New York. Among the tales he shared included one of Wingo’s most challenging assignments in baseball: keeping Babe Ruth on the straight and narrow.

Vance signed books and took questions about his duology. He plans to publish the second book this summer and continue Wingo’s journey to Cincinnati and Houston.

“Wingo” can be purchased at this link: https://www.amazon.com/Wingo-Remarkable-Life-Unremarkable-Man-ebook/dp/B0CVP96ZW8

Vance also shared with us his work on the Astros Hall of Fame Committee and gave insight into how Reid Ryan and Mike Acosta were inspired by other teams’ halls of fame to bring attention to great Astros players, broadcasters and staff.

Jim Baker sprung on us a quiz focusing on expansion clubs in MLB. Jerry Miller (pictured below, left), unbothered by the revelations involving Ohtani’s former interpreter Ippei Mizuhara, easily dominated the contest with 43 points out of a maximum of 57. Special guest Mike Vance placed second with 24, and Jan Larson (pictured below, right) was third with 23. Jim generously offered prizes in the form of gift cards to Serranos, a chapter favorite, to the first- and second-place winners. Because Mike lives in a Serranos-less area between Austin and Houston, he graciously passed the gift card to Jan.

Try your hand at Jim’s quiz below and see if you can top Jerry.

Expanding Horizons Quiz

By Jim Baker

I was going to do a Tax Day-themed quiz, but ran out of ideas after Bobby Pfeil and Scott “Internal Revenue” Service. Instead, everything in this quiz pertains to the 14 teams that were added to the original 16 in the latter half of the 20^th Century, with an emphasis on their inaugural seasons.

Team section (1 point each; 21 total points)

1. Which of the expansion teams hosted the very first game ever played by an expansion team?
2. No expansion team ever came close to playing .500 ball, but one did manage to win 70 games in their inaugural year (and then shocked everyone by finishing third the next season). Which team was it?
3. Which current non-expansion team abandoned its old city only to be immediately replaced by a team with the same name playing in the same stadium?
4. Which expansion team won 100 games the soonest after their expansion year?
5. Which was the first expansion team to win a World Series?
6. Which expansion team won a World Championship the fastest?
7. Name the five (5) expansion teams that still haven’t won a World Championship.
8. These two expansion teams—which share a birth year—have never won a division title.
9. Three expansion teams have relocated. Name them. For an extra point, name the expansion team that no longer uses the place name it was born with. (For purposes of this question, the Angels do not count.)
10. In addition to those four teams, two other expansion teams later either changed or altered their original names. Name them.
11. Of the 14 teams that started play in the expansion era, only one currently has a historic record over .500 (and it’s by only 21 games as of yesterday). Name that team.
12. Which expansion team served as the backdrop for one of the best-selling and most-beloved baseball books of all time? Need both city and team name to be correct.

Player section (2 points each, unless specified; 37 total points)

13. These two teammates on the 1993 Rockies broke and hold the record for most RBI on a first-year team with 98 each. One was a big first baseman who came from the Expos organization and would total 399 homers in his career and the other was a third baseman with a 14-year career who was yelled at by Kramer in the Seinfeld episode “The Letter.”
14. The most home runs hit by a member of a first-year expansion team was 32 by this player whose career would later be overshadowed by a Hall of Famer with the exact same name. Who was he? For an extra point, which expansion team did he play for?
15. According to b-WAR, the best season ever by a player on a first-year expansion team was 7.2 by this Houston pitcher (a lack of support left him with a 10-20 record, however). No other pitcher is close!
16. The best b-WAR ever posted (by far) by a position player on a first-year expansion team was 6.2 by this player who became the previous player’s teammate in 1963. The stellar season in question came with his new team—to which he was traded, and not given up in the expansion draft.
17. These four men played for two different first-year teams. Match the players with the inaugural teams they toiled for:
    Ron Fairly                              Houston and Seattle
    Bob Cerv                                 Montreal and Toronto
    George Brunet                      Los Angeles and Houston
    Chris Cannizzaro                 New York and San Diego
18. The best-ever b-WAR by a catcher on a first-year team (1.8) was achieved by this Angels backstopper who shares a name with his Hall of Famer father, a 1930s Cleveland Indians slugger who hailed from Snohomish, Washington.
19. The best-ever b-WAR by a left fielder (3.7) and a center fielder (4.1) on a first-year team was achieved by two men named Jones. What were their first names? For an extra point each, name their teams.
20. Only five future Hall of Famers ever played for a first-year expansion team. Interestingly, they were confined to just three teams. Here are the teams: 1962 New York, 1993 Marlins, 1998 Tampa Bay. Name the five players.

Answers appear at the bottom of the newsletter.

Hornsby Chapter Bylaws

As you may know, SABR has dedicated time and resources in recent years to improve the membership experience by encouraging chapters to formalize how they operate. Examples of improvements include having chapters conduct elections for chapter leadership positions and engage in membership recruitment and retention.

SABR HQ has also recommended that chapters adopt bylaws. As you may recall, the chapter held its first chapter commissioner election last May, with Gilbert Martinez being elected to a three-year term. He also appointed directors who make up the chapter leadership team, which includes Jan Larson, Monte Cely, Ryan Pollack, Jerry Miller and Don Dingee.

Now, the chapter leadership is ready to propose bylaws to the membership. The bylaws formalize the chapter commissioner role and duties, provide for requirements for the commissioner and give details about the director roles. The bylaws also address procedures in the event a commissioner or director is no longer able to serve. In addition, the bylaws provide instructions on how to amend the bylaws.

You can download the proposed bylaws here: April 2024 Hornsby Chapter Bylaws

The chapter will conduct an election on the bylaws from May 1 to 10. Members will have the opportunity to vote yes or no on the bylaws. Please look for a formal announcement to the Google Group and through the SABR chapter list. Only current SABR members affiliated with the Hornsby Chapter are eligible to vote. The results will be shared on the chapter email lists.

Predictatron 2024

By Jim Baker

Sunday, April 7, 2024, edition

AND WE’RE OFF!

The running of the 2024 Hornsby Chapter Predictatron is underway and with 23 participants, this is our largest field in the 18-year history of the contest. Mr. Larson has taken the bit and moved to the head of the pack, running up a very decent total of 278 points. He leads his next-closest pursuer—rookie Mr. Crombar, who is also in second in the Brian Rogers Division—by 16. Being the first leader also means Mr. Larson is our first Player of the Week.

Leading things in the Raeanne Martinez Division (named for our defending champion) is Mr. Robinson with a score of 253, eight points better than current runner-up, Mr. Polk. Mr. McNulty rounds out the Top 5 with a score of 248.

It must be remembered, of course, that this is a very volatile time of year in this contest and wild swings can and will take place. Despair not if you currently find yourself at the bottom of the standings, for big changes are bound to come as soon as the next update.

One of the things we take a measure of after everyone has submitted their ballots is who is taking chances and who is playing it safe. One way to gauge this is to check picks compared to last season’s MLB outcomes. The further a player is from last year’s standings, the “wilder” their ballot is considered. The closer, the “milder.”

In other words, if a player submitted a ballot that was exactly the same as last year’s final standings, their score would be 1,000—a very mild approach to be sure. This is this year’s Mild or Wild tabulation. The Wildest score is at the top:

It’s something to keep in mind as the season progresses: who fares better, the risk taker or the risk averse?

Through games of Sunday, April 7, or 5.9 percent of the 2024 season:

Awardatron

(Shared via email to the chapter Google Group list on April 3)

By Ryan Pollack

www.ryanpollack.com

Greetings and salutations, baseball fans! Welcome to the 2024 season of Awardatron — I mean, err, Major League Baseball. We have just under a week’s worth of games in the books, meaning of course we can make 100% accurate predictions about who will win all the awards.

First things first, some housekeeping:

• We have 17 participants this year, the most ever! So like last year, I’ll be splitting the field into 2 divisions. Because this is Awardatron, I name the divisions after BBWAA award winners. Last year the divisions were named for the first-ever BBWAA MVP award winners: Frankie Frisch and Lefty Grove. This year I’ve chosen the 1973 Cy Young winners as our division names. When the time comes, you’ll be in either the Jim Palmer or Tom Seaver Division. I alternated division assignments based on the order in which you submitted your ballot. (For the record, I am not playing.) 
• Speaking of ballot submissions, the earliest submission was Syd Polk who submitted his ballot on March 17th at 11:34 AM, a full 9 days before the season started. The last ballot was submitted by Jimmy Miller on March 27th at 7:27 PM. I think a bunch of stuff happened
• Schedule:
  • I will send email updates throughout the season; roughly one per month. I keep the email lists open (non-BCC) to encourage commentary and trash talk. In each update I give a brief overview of whom I think the top 3 candidates are for each award. I sometimes base this on Vegas odds, sometimes on mathematical projections, sometimes on gut feel. I may go deeper on one or more candidates depending on how much time I have. Typically I will wax more loquacious about the Orioles, given my obvious bias.  
  • YOU CAN CHANGE ONE (1) PICK DURING THE ALL STAR BREAK. Doing this will reduce the point total you get for that pick, but it’s a way to keep yourself in the race! I’ll remind you as the deadline approaches and make it clear what & when will happen. 
  • After the awards are announced in mid November, I tally up everyone’s scores and send out the final standings.

With that said, let’s see whom we all think will win!!

Soto and Rodriguez are the clear favorites among this group, with longtime stalwart Mike Trout still inspiring some love. I love me some Kyle Tucker; I saw him bash 2 HRs in a Round Rock Express game several years ago and I continue to think he’s one of the more underrated players in the game. Despite being on the Astros who get a lot of media attention, King Tuck is a pretty bland looking guy who doesn’t generate a lot of buzz himself. When he stepped to the plate against Felix Bautista on August 7th last year with the bases loaded and the Astros losing 6-3 in the top of the 9th, my wife was like “Who’s that guy? He looks like a huge dork.” And I was like “He does look like a huge dork, but he’s a really good hitter, very underrated, so I’m nervous.” Turns out I had good reason to be, as Tucker blasted a grand slam that gave the Astros a 7-6 lead they held onto to win. Ugh.

Great, now I’m depressed. So I’ll cheer myself up by being happy there are 2 Orioles on this list. Thank you for your votes of confidence. I’m not positive either will win, but I sure would love it if they did. I think they have the skillset to do it.

Our field in the NL seems much narrower. Many of us think there will be a repeat of last year’s “Acuña Jr. or Betts?” discussion. I can see that happening. The interesting name here for me is Trea Turner. He’s been continually excellent but has never had that dominant season, and he struggled much of last year with Philly. He did turn it on in the last month or so of the season and took that into the playoffs (.347 AVG, 3 HR, 9 runs scored). We shall see.

I’m so excited for Corbin Burnes on the Orioles this year. I know the rigors and randomness of baseball well, but his first start was a gem and he’s been consistently very good to excellent for the past couple of years. ALSO, we didn’t give up much of anything to get him. Joey Ortiz was like our 5th best infield prospect and DL Hall struggles enough with command to have ‘future reliever’ written on him instead of “future starter”. These guys have a chance to be good in Milwaukee, for sure, and I’m rooting for them. But Burnes is way more valuable to us now than these guys are. Love love love what Mike Elias & Sig Mejdal are doing for our club. 

Speaking of Orioles and pitching, I’ve loved watching Kevin Gausman get better over the past 3 years. He showed flashes of being good when he was with the Orioles, but our pitching development was still a trash fire at that point and so he understandably never reached his full potential (See: Arrieta, Jake). He’s a borderline ace in Toronto, maybe an actual one, and I would love to face him in the playoffs. (Actually not really, I’d be scared.)

I think George Kirby has a chance to be great too. He doesn’t walk anyone (2.5% walk rate in 2023, vs. the major league average of ~8.5%) and that is a huge recipe for success. Run prevention is worth more than run scoring; for this reason I think Seattle has a chance to be sneaky good this year (although in Jim Baker’s Predictatron contest, I have them missing the playoffs).

I’ll leave with — given that Blake Snell signed with an NL team, I think it’s highly unlikely he wins the AL Cy Young award this year 😉 But who knows, CC Sabathia was nails for the Brewers in the second half of 2008 after being traded from the AL to the NL, so anything could happen … 

Speaking of the NL Cy Young, most of us think this will be Luigi’s — I mean, Strider’s — year. (Sorry, the baseball mustache trend is getting to me.) I think Strider had a much stronger NL Cy Young case last year than Blake Snell did. I prefer FanGraphs WAR over Baseball Reference WAR and by this measure, Strider was basically tied with Zach Wheeler for the NL lead. Snell was closer to 4th. He wasn’t bad by any means, but other guys were better. This year, maybe Strider’s new curveball will put him over the top. I would not bet on Snell repeating or even finishing Top 5 this year.

Pretty much consensus on the field here. I haven’t read much at all about Langford, but I saw a lot of Carter in the playoffs last year so I’m excited about him. Also, he looks exactly like a co-worker of mine who is NOT ONLY a Rangers fan, BUT ALSO whose name is ALSO Evan. Uncanny.

So uh — yeah, two facts for you here. Yesterday the Orioles started Tony Kemp at second base. Meanwhile Jackson Holliday has hit 2 HR in Triple-A this year already and owns a 1.080 OPS. I get that the whole ‘gaming service time’ thing isn’t truly stamped out, but this just makes me sad. Hopefully new Orioles owner David Rubenstein has a different philosophy when it comes to extending young talent than John Angelos did. I’m happy Angelos hired Elias and stayed out of his way, but excuse me when I say that thank fuck I don’t have to think about him and his decisions for our team ever again. 

Over in the NL, you have the Dodgers’ other Japanese offseason megadeal in Yamamoto. I’ll be honest, I’m on the fence about whether NPB imports should be eligible for MLB rookie awards, I know technically it’s their first year in MLB. So technically yes, they are rookies. But it just doesn’t sit quite right with me. 

That said, Yamamoto is the heavy favorite for a reason. He didn’t have a great first start, but he was much better in his second one. For a quick look at pitcher dominance I look at strikeout rate minus walk rate — K-BB% for short. By this measure Yamamoto’s 23.1% is well above last year’s MLB SP average of 14.2%.

I’m intrigued by the Kyle Harrison pick. I’ll be honest, I didn’t know who this was. Turns out I was mentally confusing him with another Giants pitching prospect, Kyle Crick. It also turns out that Crick was a Giants prospect back in 2016-ish and has since rotated through the Pirates and White Sox. This shows you how much I pay attention to the Giants, but hopefully I can burn this into my brain to land an awesome rarity score on a future Immaculate Grid. 

Speaking of Kyles, whatever happened to Kyle Freeland? He was awesome in, what, 2018? And how he sucks. Kyle Hendricks is still around and doing well, right? Kyle Lewis is my sneaky ROY pick in Immaculate Grid whenever I can land him because it happened in 2020 and no one remembers what happened during that season. Okay, I promise I’m done with Kyles now. 

Here we get into the category of “team that is the most positive surprise” which can sometimes be “team that most overperforms its run differential to sneak into the playoffs”, which is how I correctly predicted late last season that Skip Schumaker would win the award.

Many of us think that this is the Mariners’ year — for real this time. Will it be? It’s been “this is the year, for sure!” for many years now, going back to I think like 2015. Except for 2022, the M’s regularly finish just out of the playoffs. They can never seem to quite get that push to get over the line. They do however have a legitimate MVP contender in Julio Rodriguez as well as a great 1-2-3 rotation in Castillo, Kirby, and Gilbert. 

The Rangers lost the handle on the division last year. While the Astros are still very good and can never be counted out, they seem a step below their days of guaranteed 95+ wins every year. Will this be enough for Servais?

Ron Washington … I love the guy, especially his energy and his candor. Living in Austin, I was rooting hard for the Rangers in 2010 and 2011. But I just don’t think the Angels have what it takes to make a run this year. Their pitching is okay, but Mike Trout probably won’t play a full season. Even if he did, it wouldn’t be enough.

Craig Counsell gets the “Bob-Melvin-takes-over-last-year-‘s-underperforming-team” pick here. Mike Shildt says “Hold up, that’s my underperforming team.” And Bob Melvin says “… first time?”

=====

Thanks for playing y’all! Settle in and enjoy the season! We’ll be in touch throughout. 

Frank Deford Lecture on Sports Journalism

Earlier this year, Dr. Michael Butterworth, the director of the Center for Sports Communication & Media at UT-Austin, shared an event of interest to our chapter. The center sponsored the Frank Deford Lecture on Sports Journalism on March 27. This year’s speaker was Dr. Gerald Early, a distinguished professor at Washington University of St. Louis and one of the foremost writers on baseball. Dr. Early is consulting with the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum on changes to their Black Baseball exhibit, which was the subject of his talk.

Chapter member Bailey Hall attended and shared this summary with the chapter on the group email list:

I just wanted to give a quick summary of the Dr. Gerald Early talk given today at the UT Dealey Center for New Media. My mom and I went, and it was super interesting, so I figured I’d share some of my favorite parts with everyone.

As a little bit of background, Dr. Early is a professor of African and African American Studies at WASHU in St. Louis, and he has appeared in I believe all of the Ken Burns baseball documentaries. He also just seemed to be a baseball enthusiast and fan.

His talk was about the reimagining and design of the updated Negro Leagues exhibit at the Hall of Fame Museum in Cooperstown. He talked about quite a few interesting details like how they arrived at a name for the exhibit, what needed to be updated (because the exhibit hadn’t been changed since the 1997), and how to portray the players. He talked also gave a bit of history about the Negro Leagues in general, and said something very interesting: he explained that for the Negro Leagues, the game that drew the biggest turnout was the all star game, and not the World Series. If anyone knows why that is, please let me know, because I was super curious about that! He also explained the nuances of how to portray Jackie Robinson because the board was concerned with how to, or if they should, display his political ideals. Robinson, according to Early, was a pretty vocal republican, and apparently there were board members who thought that this would “tarnish” Robinson’s legacy as a hero in civil rights. Early explained that he disagreed with this, believing that the point of a museum is to display all of the facts regardless of how people will take it. He then talked about the discussions that led to the naming of the book that goes with the exhibit. They landed on the name “Play Harder”, and explained that this was a really meaningful phrase in the Negro Leagues and for black players in general; many famous black major leaguers and Negro leaguers have been quoted saying “play harder” as an expression of perseverance and as a response to the racial backlash they faced.

There were tons more of these little anecdotes like these, so if anyone is curious, please let me know!

Many thanks to Bailey for attending and sharing!

Next meeting: Round Rock Express game at the Dell Diamond!

The May meeting will be our first baseball outing of the year. We’re attending the 7:15 p.m. Saturday, May 11, game between the Round Rock Express and the Las Vegas Aviators. There will be a post-game Star Wars-themed drone show. As is the chapter’s custom, we’ll plan to meet for barbecue at 5:30 p.m. at Salt Lick, located near the Dell Diamond. A call for RSVPs will go out in early May. Hope you can join us!

If you plan to join us, please purchase your own ticket in Section 121, Rows 23 and 24. I’ve purchased seats 21 and 22 in Row 24. Here’s the link: https://mlb.tickets.com/?orgId=22433&agency=MILB_MPV&eventId=26031#/event/E26031/seatmap/?seatmapId=9504&selectBuyers=false&minPrice=15&maxPrice=67&quantity=2&sort=price_desc&ada=false&seatSelection=true&onlyCoupon=true&onlyVoucher=false 

Quiz Answers

Team section (1 point each)

1. The “new” Washington Senators, 4/10/1961 vs. Chicago White Sox
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Arizona Diamondbacks, year 2 (100-62)
5. New York Mets, 1969
6. Arizona Diamondbacks, year 4
7. a, Pilots/Brewers Mariners  c. Tampa Bay  d. Rockies e. Padres
8. Marlins b. Rockies
9. WAS/TEX b. MTL/WAS   c. SEP/MIL   d. FLA/MIA Marlins
10. Houston Colt .45s/Astros b. Tampa Bay Devil Rays/Rays
11. Houston Colt .45s/Astros; 4925-4904 through Saturday
12. Seattle Pilots, Ball Four by Jim Bouton

Player section (2 points each)

13. Andres Galarraga and Charlie Hayes
14. Frank Thomas, 1962 Mets
15. Turk Farrell
16. Rusty Staub
17. Fairly MTL-TOR (AS); Cerv, LAA-HOU; Brunet HOU-SEP; Cannizzaro NYM-SDP
18. Earl Averill (his father was known as the “Earl of Snohomish”)
19. Rupert Jones, 1977 Mariners b.  Mack Jones, 1969 Expos
20. Gil Hodges/Richie Ashburn, 62NYM; Trevor Hoffman, 93FLA; Wade Boggs/Fred McGriff, 98TBR

The best time of the year has arrived – baseball season! It is a joyous time for many, and nerve-racking for some. But whether your team is off to a great start, or not, we can all agree that we’re happy that baseball is back!

We are in for special treats for the April meeting. It will be hosted by Bailey Hall and her parents Nicole Bryan-Hall and Brian Hall at their home in Central Austin. The meeting will be at 1 p.m. Sunday, April 14. Please RSVP to Gilbert Martinez (gmartinez46@mac.com) by Thursday, April 11, if you plan to come. The home address will be shared via email.

Please bring a beverage of your choice or a dessert to share with the group, and you’re invited to bring swimwear and a towel to enjoy the swimming pool. The hosts will provide hot dogs with all the fixings.

In addition, Dierker Chapter member and author Mike Vance will join us for a book reading of his just-published first novel in a duology about baseball called “Wingo: The Remarkable Life of an Unremarkable Man.”

March 2024 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

The Seoul Series, Opening Day on Thursday, and the cloud over Shohei Ohtani and MLB were some of the topics we discussed at the March meeting on Sunday.

Fourteen members and guests gathered at Serranos in Southwest Austin to chew on Mexican food and speculations about Ohtani’s interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, who was suddenly fired by the Los Angeles Dodgers soon after the conclusion of the two-game series in Seoul, South Korea. After an initial statement by Mizuhara that Ohtani had paid off the interpreter’s gambling debts to the tune of $4.5 million, Ohtani’s representatives have since said the superstar was the victim of a massive theft. Late Friday, MLB announced that it has begun an official investigation into the matter, leading to lots of discussion online and at our meeting.

We also talked about Blake Snell signing with the San Francisco Giants. The National League Cy Young winner from last season was connected to the New York Yankees and Houston Astros, among others, before choosing a West Coast team.

This was the 208th consecutive month in which the chapter has met, extending a streak that began in 2006.

Norman Macht’s Icebreaker

Longtime SABR member, former member of the SABR board of directors and author of the definitive biography about Connie Mack, Norman Macht shared an icebreaker via email with me a few months ago. We used it as a group activity at the start of our meeting. See how many of the given first names of Hall of Famers you know.

Hall of Fame Quiz

By Norman Macht

What’s the given first name of these Hall of Famers?

Lefty Grove                              Babe Ruth                               Sparky Anderson        

Yogi Berra                                Chief Bender                           Three-Finger Brown   

Mickey Cochrane                    Whitey Ford                            Lefty Gomez               

Goose Goslin                           Goose Gossage                       Gabby Hartnett

Whitey Herzog                        Catfish Hunter                         Chipper Jones

Pee Wee Reese                       Red Schoendienst                   Duke Snider                

Arky Vaughan                         Pie Traynor                              Hack Wilson               

Cy Young

Answers appear at the end of this newsletter.

News from SABR HQ

In a recent virtual meeting for chapter leaders, SABR announced it was doing something differently for the upcoming board of directors’ election. Eight candidates for two open board spots will have a chance to introduce themselves to members during a virtual meeting on April 10. SABR said members should be on the lookout for an email soon with more information.

I also learned about an interesting exhibit at Camden County College in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, called “A League Apart: Showcasing the Legacy of Philadelphia Negro League Baseball.” The exhibit runs through May 20. Here’s the link: https://aleagueapart.org/

Predictatron and Awardatron

Chapter members should check their recent email for invitations to participate in Jim Baker’s Predictatron, in which members are tasked with predicting division standings, playoff seeding and eventual World Series Champion. Can anyone knock off last year’s successful prognosticators? Raeanne Martinez won the season-long contest, while Frank Rechtorovic won the post-season contest. This year, divisions will be named for Raeanne and Brian Rogers, who won his division in the season-long contest. Please see Jim’s email for instructions and the spreadsheet with which to submit your predictions. Entries are due by midnight (Central Time) on Thursday, March 28 (Opening Day).

Members should also look for the email from Ryan Pollack for the Awardatron Contest. Your goal is to predict who’ll win the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year awards in both the AL and the NL during the 2024 MLB season. Last year, Mike Cohen won the Lefty Grove Division and took the title with 94 out of a possible 120 points. Jerry Miller won the Frankie Frisch Division and finished runner-up overall with a still-impressive 89 points.

Entries are due by 9 p.m. (Central Time) Thursday, March 28. For directions and submission instructions, go to this link: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeqmQxc9x0pkS8J-5ldYzlO7ehL4rkRqMp8WeE99gyGhVQEMw/viewform

Starting Pitchers on Opening Day 2024 Quiz

Congratulations to Ryan Pollack (pictured below, left) and Cy Morong for acing the challenge to name the starting pitchers for Opening Day on Thursday. Ryan more than doubled the score of the second-place finisher with 19 points, followed by Cy with eight points. Ryan won “The Long Ball: The Summer of ’75 – Spaceman, Catfish, Charlie Hustle, and the Greatest World Series Ever Played” by Tom Adelman. Cy won “Coopertown Confidential: Heroes, Rogues, and the Inside Story of the Baseball Hall of Fame” by Zev Chafets.

The group noticed how many of baseball’s best pitchers are starting the season on the injured list, which made it especially challenging to name Opening Day starters.

Think you’re ready for Opening Day? Take a stab at the quiz below. The answers appear at the end of this newsletter.

Starting Pitchers on Opening Day 2024

By Gilbert D. Martinez

Information available as of March 23, 2024. Each blank is worth one (1) point. Maximum score is 28 points (because the Dodgers and Padres had not yet listed their starting pitchers as of March 23).

Brewers at Mets

______________ vs. ________________

Angels at Orioles

______________ vs. ________________

Braves at Phillies

______________ vs. ________________

Nationals at Reds

______________ vs. ________________

Giants at Padres

______________ vs. _____TBA________

Cardinals at Dodgers

______________ vs. _____TBA________

Blue Jays at Rays

______________ vs. ________________

Twins at Royals

______________ vs. ________________

Tigers at White Sox

______________ vs. ________________

Pirates at Marlins

______________ vs. ________________

Yankees at Astros

______________ vs. ________________

Cubs at Rangers

______________ vs. ________________

Guardians at Athletics

______________ vs. ________________

Rockies at Diamondbacks

______________ vs. ________________

Red Sox at Mariners

______________ vs. ________________

Next Meeting on April 14

Our next meeting will be at 1 p.m. Sunday, April 14, at the home of Bailey Hall and her parents, Brian Hall and Nicole Bryan-Hall. SABR Dierker Chapter member and book author Mike Vance will be a special guest. A call for RSVPs will go out to the email list in early April.

Norman Macht’s Icebreaker

Hall of Fame Quiz Answers

What’s the given first name of these Hall of Famers?

Lefty Grove (Robert)               Babe Ruth (George)                Sparky Anderson (George)

Yogi Berra (Lawrence)             Chief Bender (Charles)            Three-Finger Brown (Mordecai)

Mickey Cochrane (Gordon)     Whitey Ford (Edward)             Lefty Gomez (Vernon)

Goose Goslin (Leon)               Goose Gossage (Richard)        Gabby Hartnett (Charles)

Whitey Herzog (Dorrel)          Catfish Hunter (James)           Chipper Jones (Larry)

Pee Wee Reese (Harold)         Red Schoendienst (Albert)      Duke Snider (Edwin)

Arky Vaughan (Joseph)           Pie Traynor (Harold)                Hack Wilson (Lewis)

Cy Young (Denton)

Starting Pitchers on Opening Day 2024 Answers

By Gilbert D. Martinez

Brewers at Mets: Peralta vs. Quintana

Angels at Orioles: Sandoval vs. Burnes

Braves at Phillies: Strider vs. Wheeler

Nationals at Reds: Gray vs. Montas

Giants at Padres: Webb vs. TBA

Cardinals at Dodgers: Mikolas vs. TBA

Blue Jays at Rays: Berrios vs. Eflin

Twins at Royals: Lopez vs. Ragans

Tigers at White Sox: Skubal vs. Crochet

Pirates at Marlins: Keller vs. Luzardo

Yankees at Astros: Cortes vs. Valdez

Cubs at Rangers: Steele vs. Eovaldi

Guardians at Athletics: Bieber vs. Wood

Rockies at Diamondbacks: Freeland vs. Gallen

Red Sox at Mariners: Bello vs. Castillo

February Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

Pete Rose – a polarizing ballplayer during his playing days and long after his suspension from baseball – continues to dominate conversations of die-hard and casual baseball fans alike. A New York Times bestselling author, award-winning journalist and SABR member joined us on Zoom for SABR Day on Saturday to remind us of Rose’s great baseball accomplishments and the poor choices and gambling addiction that derailed his legacy.

Keith O’Brien, author of “Charlie Hustle: The Rise and Fall of Pete Rose, and the Last Glory Days of Baseball,” helped us celebrate SABR Day by explaining why now is the right time to revisit Rose’s career, the gambling scandal and his continued exile from the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

“This was a man who we only care about his fall because we cared about his rise,” O’Brien said. “One thing I wanted to do with this book is reconstruct that. Bring us back to that time when we cared and why we loved him. Bring him to the mountaintop and let him fall as he does.”

About a dozen SABR members and guests joined us for the conversation with O’Brien. The meeting was recorded is available on YouTube at this link and below: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWyHnloOh6Y

Many thanks to O’Brien for previewing his book, which is scheduled to be published on March 26. He offered to share bookmarks and a signature plate for those who reach out to him with proof of purchase (please email Gilbert Martinez for more details at gmartinez46@mac.com).

You can find more information about Keith O’Brien and links to order his book on this website: https://keithob.com/

Caribbean Series in Miami

Chapter members Monte Cely and Mike Dillon are in Miami watching the Caribbean Series at loanDepot Park, home of MLB’s Miami Marlins. Monte has been sharing dispatches from Miami with the Google Group list.

“For 2024, there is a field of seven league champions – the permanent members Mexico, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and Puerto Rico, joined by invitees Panama, Curacao, and Nicaragua,” Monte wrote.  “They will play a single round robin (three games daily for seven days with each team having a ‘bye’ day).”

Semifinals are scheduled for Feb. 8 and will be broadcast on ESPN Deportes and ESPN+. The third-place game will be on Feb. 9, followed by the Caribbean Series Championship.

Research Spotlight

Chapter member Dan Walsh noticed that Joe Mauer’s election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame made him the second Hall of Famer, joining Paul Molitor, from Cretin High School in St. Paul. Dan posed a question and a hint for our email list: “Can you name any other HOFers who went to the same high school?  Hint: Think California.”

What followed was a robust discussion with spot-on guesses and near misses. The next day, Dan shared the list with us, and included some on the horizon.

Here’s the complete list of HOF members from the same high school.  Following high school and city, other notable players from the school are shown in brackets.

Walter Johnson / Arky Vaughn – Fullerton Union HS, Fullerton, CA (Vern Stephens, Steve Busby) (Note: Vern Stephens attended Long Beach Poly High School, not Fullerton)

Joe Cronin / Harry Heilman – Sacred Heart Cathedral HS, San Francisco (Dolph Camilli, Jim Gentile)

Paul Waner / Lloyd Waner – Harrah HS, Harrah, OK

Frank Chance / Tom Seaver – Fresno HS, Fresno, CA (Jim Maloney, Dutch Leonard)

Joe DiMaggio / Tony Lazzeri – Galileo HS, San Francisco (Dom & Vince DiMaggio, Bobby Brown)

Frank Robinson / Ernie Lombardi – McClymonds HS, Oakland (Vada Pinson, Curt Flood, Lee Lacy)

Eddie Murray / Ozzie Smith – Locke HS, Los Angeles (HS teammates)

Barry Larkin / Ken Griffey, Jr. – Archbishop Moeller HS, Cincinnati (Buddy & David Bell)

Tony LaRussa / Fred McGriff – Thomas Jefferson HS, Tampa, FL (Luis Gonzalez, Tino Martinez)

Paul Molitor / Joe Mauer – Cretin HS, St. Paul, MN (Jake Esch – Who? Esch is the only other major leaguer from this school, appeared in 4 games)

The Future:  If Chase Utley gets elected, he will join Tony Gwynn – both played at LB Poly HS in Long Beach, CA.

If Manny Ramirez ever gets in, then he will join Rod Carew – both went to George Washington HS in New York City.

Next meeting on Sunday, March 24

With the start of spring training just days away, our next chapter meeting comes after the official start of the season with the Seoul Series. We’ll meet at 1 p.m. Sunday, March 24, at Serranos Cocina and Cantina, at MoPac and Ben White/71.

We’ll have a lot to talk about – from the Seoul Series, featuring the new-look Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, with games in South Korea to kick off the season and opening day on March 28 for the rest of the teams.

We’ll put out a call for RSVPs in early March.

The Rogers Hornsby Chapter will celebrate SABR Day at 1 p.m. Saturday, Feb. 3, on Zoom with Keith O’Brien, a best-selling author and journalist who has written the forth-coming book, “Charlie Hustle: The Rise and Fall of Pete Rose, and the Last Glory Days of Baseball.”

To register for this Zoom meeting, please go to this link: https://txstate.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZMof-qqrDouE9LsK2J3Hqxi0dBhqUL7Dxfb

The book can be pre-ordered on the author’s website: https://keithob.com/

Hope to see y’all on Zoom on Feb. 3!

January Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

Details of two baseball stadium tours, one author talking about the circumstances in which professional ball players got the call and another detailing 19th century baseball, a national baseball writer noting a turning point in the Texas-New York team rivalries, and an MLB trainer tasked with preparing the next generation of umpires filled a full day of presentations and discussions at the Rogers Hornsby Chapter’s 18th Annual Bill Gilbert Winter Meeting on Saturday.

More than 30 chapter members and guests attended the winter meeting at Texas State University on Saturday in person and on Zoom. The meeting also featured the Round Rock Express general manager and the team’s longtime broadcaster giving updates on the Triple-A affiliate of World Series Champions Texas Rangers and one chapter member seeking to determine which is worse: a leadoff walk or a leadoff single?

Developing the next generation of umpires

Jason Starkovich, a former minor league umpire who now works as an umpire development observer for Major League Baseball, joined us via Zoom to talk about how the pathway for umpires to reach the big leagues has changed. With four years of experience as a minor league umpire, including at Dell Diamond, Starkovich trains and develops umpires in MLB’s rookie league in Arizona.

He said recent changes in the game such as the pitch clock and replay review have reduced arguments between managers and players and umpires. He noted that aspiring major league umpires are similar to baseball prospects – doing everything they can to make the big leagues. He said training often involves helping young umpires develop good instincts and quick judgments with an eye on getting the call right. He said the umpires who demonstrate these skills best are the ones who get called up.

A product of the Harry Wendelstedt Umpire School, Starkovich said the path of aspiring umpires is different nowadays. Those interested apply directly to MLB and can participate in a one-month training in Florida. Those who make the cut develop their skills at rookie and low-A ball.

He shared that when he was working a game as an umpire, he and his crew were laser-focused on getting the call right. He also said he spent every second on the field “absolutely waiting for something to explode.” He added that there’s little time for idle chitchat since everyone involved – players, coaches, managers and umpires – are all trying to make the big leagues, so it felt very much like a business.

Teams from Texas vs. Teams from New York

Joe Sheehan, national baseball writer and contributor to The Athletic, joined us via Zoom to focus on the rivalry between teams from Texas (the Rangers and the Astros) and New York. Noting the recent run of success since 2017 by the Astros with two World Series Championships, four pennants, six division titles and seven consecutive trips to the American League Championship Series, Sheehan said, “For me, the Astros are a dynasty.” And, with the Rangers winning the 2023 World Series, Sheehan noticed how the script has flipped when Texas teams face New York teams, particularly the Yankees.

Sheehan said he’s fascinated by turning points and focused on an at-bat in 2010 by Texas Ranger Bengie Molina (traded from the San Francisco Giants that year).

Up to that point, Texas teams (Astros and Rangers combined) had zero playoff series wins against the Yankees, but when Molina hit a three-run homer in Yankee Stadium to even the ALCS, Sheehan said that marked the turning point in the rivalry between the two states. The Rangers dispatched the Yankees to go on to their first World Series as a franchise. For the Yankees, they’ve since suffered playoff losses to the Astros in 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2022 and missed the playoffs in 2023 for the first time since 2016.

In a conversation with chapter member Ryan Pollack and with questions from the audience, Sheehan shared his thoughts about other baseball issues. He believes that revenue sharing between the teams and broadcasting issues will dominate the next collective bargaining agreement with the players. He said he thinks MLB wants to get to a point where it sells everything, but it can’t get there because some teams have highly profitable deals with broadcasting companies. Like many baseball fans, he’s been saddened by what John Fisher has done with the Oakland Athletics.

For more information about the Joe Sheehan Newsletter, click here: http://www.joesheehan.com/

Getting the call

Zak Ford, chair of SABR’s Dusty Baker Chapter in Sacramento, joined us via Zoom to share highlights from his book “Called Up: Ballplayers Remember Becoming Major Leaguers” (Oct. 27, 2023).

His book includes more than 100 major leaguers such as Bobby Grich, Bobby Witt and Ryan Rowland-Smith. He includes how each player found out they were going to the show, including who told them and the circumstances in which they were told. He also includes details about their first game in uniform and first game appearance.

To learn more about his book and how to purchase, click here:

https://www.amazon.com/Called-Up-Ballplayers-Remember-Becoming/dp/1476692793

Which is worse: Leadoff walk or leadoff single?

Building on a presentation at last year’s winter meeting about baseball statistics, chapter member Bailey Hall sought to focus on a particular baseball question and to see if she could prove her father wrong. She wanted to know which was worse: a leadoff walk or a leadoff single? Her father, Brian Hall, and other family members had long told her that a leadoff walk was much more detrimental to the pitcher and the team on defense.

She didn’t know if she could arrive at an answer to the seemingly simple question, so she asked Keith Hernandez, former New York Mets great and current team broadcaster, and former Astros pitching phenom Larry Dierker to get perspectives from both sides of the diamond. Both told her that the leadoff walk was way worse.

But Hall didn’t stop there. With help from her parents, fellow chapter member Ryan Pollack and others, she learned how to read and combine datasets from Statcast and Retrosheet and found that in 2023, leadoff walks led to 0.9836 runs while leadoff singles led to 0.9549, which was not a significant statistical difference. However, she dug deeper and found that in the 9th inning, leadoff singles (which led to 0.8829 runs) were worse than leadoff walks (0.8378 runs).

For more about Hall’s findings and how she disproved her dad, download her presentation here:

Bailey Hall Baseball Statistical Analysis Project 2024-1

Round Rock Express update

Express General Manager Tim Jackson and voice of the Express and chapter member Mike Capps gave their updates on the Triple-A affiliate of the Texas Rangers. Jackson said he noticed that even casual fans started to make the connection between the minor league and major league clubs as the Rangers led the American League West for much of the season. As a minor league team with connections to both the Rangers and the Astros in recent years, he noted that more than 20 players on the rosters for the ALCS in 2023 spent some time at the Dell Diamond.

Jackson said he’s looking forward to Dell Diamond hosting the Round Rock College Classic from Feb. 23 to 25, featuring Texas State University, the University of Kansas, the University of Kentucky and Washington State University. The Express, which opens its season on March 29, will unveil a new scoreboard. Jackson said he’s looking forward to partnering with the big league club to tie in to its World Series promotions and plans to bring the World Series trophy to Dell Diamond during the season.

Mike Capps, the voice of the Express and author of “Grinders: Baseball’s Intrepid Infantry,” shared how he gets to know the minor league players, many of whom are doing everything they can to achieve their dream of making the big leagues. During a tough stretch for the Express during the season, the players sought Cappy out to talk to them and give them a boost. He said he didn’t understand at first why they wanted him to speak, but he encouraged them to play hard and lay it all on the line. His connection with the players, and this talk, was a “crowning moment of my life,” he said. “They had a huge impact on me.”

Among the Express players to watch for, Cappy said, is Justin Foscue, who’s on the Rangers’ 40-man roster. He expects that if there’s an injury on the Rangers, Foscue is likely to be the first one called up. He also recounted how Evan Carter spent a few weeks with the Express before being called up in 2023 and breaking out for the Rangers in their drive to win the World Series. He doesn’t expect him back in Round Rock anytime soon.

Baseball stadium tour

Chapter members Syd Polk and Jan Larson recounted details from their respective tours of baseball stadiums. Larson shared that he hadn’t planned to see every major league stadium, but after a baseball trip with friends to Atlanta in 1985, they decided to make it an annual thing. Over the course of 47 years (including a visit to Royals Stadium in 1976 and Arlington Stadium in 1984), Larson has visited 59 ballparks to watch an MLB game, including a few international sites and minor league parks filling in for a major league park. Because of time constraints, Larson plans to share more about his tour at next year’s winter meeting.

While Larson’s tour spans decades, Syd Polk’s was much briefer. He recounted how he planned to visit 24 stadiums in 11 weeks in 1994. He wrote a computer program to determine his itinerary and did it the old-fashioned way with paper maps and without modern conveniences such as smart phones with mapping apps. He had an impressive display of stadium cups, scorecards and other memorabilia from his trip. He noted that he didn’t make it to the Kingdome in Seattle in 1994 because the Mariners were forced to play the rest of the season on the road after ceiling tiles had fallen on the field before a game that July, closing the stadium. But he did see a game there the previous year so he counted it as part of his tally for the 12-month time period.

Baseball in the 19th century

Justin Mckinney transported all of us to the 19th century when the Union Association struggled to compete against other professional baseball leagues. Mckinney, joining us from Calgary via Zoom, shared details from his book, “Baseball’s Union Association: The Short, Strange Life of a 19th-Century Major League,” about the short-lived Union Association and ill-fated clubs that folded partway through the season, such as the Mountain Citys of Altoona, Pa., still the smallest city to host a major league baseball team. He told us about founder Henry V. Lucas, a 26-year-old millionaire from St. Louis, and how he monopolized the best players to lead the St. Louis Maroons to a .832 winning percentage.

To learn more about his book and how to purchase, click here:

https://www.amazon.com/Baseballs-Union-Association-Strange-19th-Century/dp/1476680604

Mock HOF vote

A winter meeting tradition for many years, the National Baseball Hall of Fame voting by Hornsby Chapter members and guests has often predicted what the Baseball Writers’ Association of America actually does with the vote.

This year, chapter members elected only Adrián Beltré to the Hall of Fame. Of 22 ballots submitted, Beltre appeared on 21, garnering 95.4% of the vote, easily surpassing the 75% threshold for induction.

The player with the next highest vote total was Todd Helton, who received 15 votes for a 68.1% share. Joe Mauer and Billy Wagner each received 13 votes, a 59% share. Chase Utley received nine votes for a 40.9% share. On his 10th and final ballot, Gary Sheffield received eight votes for a 36.3% share.

The following players received one or zero votes and thus would be eliminated from future ballot consideration for failing to accrue 5% of the vote: Jose Bautista, Bartolo Colon, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Torii Hunter, Victor Martinez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins and James Shields.

At 5 p.m. Central Time on Jan. 23, the BBWAA will announce the results of its 2024 Hall of Fame vote live from Cooperstown on MLB Network.

Highs of ushering at Rockies games

Chapter member Peter Myers, who splits time between San Antonio and Denver in his retirement, joined the ushering staff at Coors Field in 2023. He shared some of his highlights in experiencing the game from an usher’s perspective and working with other retirees and college and high school interns. He also shared what some fans have tried bringing into the stadium and how his supervisors helped him manage potentially volatile situations. He also recalled visits to the mile-high stadium in downtown Denver by his late wife’s family from Canada as well as by fellow chapter members such as Ira Siegel and Gilbert and Raeanne Martinez.

Predictatron trophy presentation

Predictatron contest-runner Jim Baker presented trophies to four-time winner Raeanne Martinez for winning the season-long prediction contest and Frank Rechtorovic for nailing the post-season contest (with what Frank noted was the “largest margin of victory”). Both had their names added to their respective trophies and have the honor of displaying their trophies at home for 2024.

But the battle to see if they will defend their titles or if other members will flex their prognostication skills to nab the trophies is just around the corner. Keep an eye out for Baker’s invitation to join the next Predictatron contest in an email to the Google group list in March before the start of the regular season.

Bill Gilbert

At the beginning of the meeting, we took a moment to remember Bill Gilbert, who founded both the Rogers Hornsby Chapter and the Larry Dierker Chapter in Houston. It was his idea to host a winter meeting to feature prominent baseball figures and presentations about baseball. Since his passing in 2018, we miss him and remain grateful for the vibrant baseball communities he helped to create.

Appreciation

Much appreciation to all presenters and speakers, and to everyone able to join us in person at Old Main on the Texas State University campus in San Marcos! Special thanks to Jerry Miller, who organized the winter meeting, Monte and Linda Cely for providing the hot dogs, chips and Cracker Jack lunch and snacks for an affordable fee, and Ryan Pollack for bringing Joe Sheehan for our meeting and leading the conversation with him and for running our mock HOF voting.

Next meeting: SABR Day on Feb. 3

SABR has designated Saturday, Feb. 3, as National SABR Day, so we plan to have a meeting on Zoom to celebrate the day and anticipate the start of spring training. More details to come on the chapter website and email list later this month.