Category: Research & Articles

Who’s on Deck for Consideration for the Baseball Hall of Fame?

 

Who’s on Deck for Consideration for the Baseball Hall of Fame?
 
By Bill Gilbert
 
 
            Now that Goose Gossage has finally been elected to the Hall of Fame, it’s a good time to look ahead at the candidates that will be on the ballot in coming years.   The 2008 ballot was very unfriendly to newcomers with the 543 members of the BBWAA awarding this group of 11 players only 143 votes, 132 of them to Tim Raines. None of the other 10 received as much as 1% of the votes and, as a result, will be eliminated from further consideration. 
 
            For convenience in identifying potential candidates in coming years, I chose to use Bill James Win Shares. James has stated that, in the past, 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer but he further states that it may not be the case in the future. To be inclusive, I used a cut point of 250 points for position players and 200 points for pitchers in this study.
 
            Here are the players who meet my criteria and are eligible to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in the next five years.
 
 
2009 Ballot
 
Rickey Henderson 535 Win Shares
Mark Grace 294
David Cone 205
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Unless he succeeds in another comeback, a possibility that can’t be eliminated with Rickey, Henderson will finally be eligible and should easily be elected with the likelihood of one of the more entertaining acceptance speeches in recent years.
 
            None of the other 2009 newcomers is a strong candidate, opening the door for holdover, Jim Rice, to make it in his final year of eligibility.
 
 
2010 Ballot
 
Roberto Alomar 375 Win Shares
Barry Larkin 347
Fred McGriff 326
Edgar Martinez 305
Robin Ventura 272
Ellis Burks 260
Andres Galarraga 251
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            The 2010 Class is strong with several players likely to remain on the ballot for a number of years. While none may make it on the first ballot, the top four all have a chance with the passage of time.
 
 
2011 Ballot
 
Rafael Palmeiro 394 Win Shares
Jeff Bagwell 387
Larry Walker  307
John Olerud 301
Kevin Brown 241
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Palmeiro and Bagwell clearly have the numbers but there is a question about how voters will treat power hitters from the steroid era.
 
 
2012 Ballot
 
Bernie Williams 311 Win Shares
 
 
 
            The 2012 ballot shapes up as one even weaker than 2008 which could provide an opportunity for some holdovers to cash in.
 
 
2013 Ballot
 
            The 2013 ballot, possibly headed by Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, could be the strongest and most controversial ever.
 
Barry Bonds 705 Win Shares
Roger Clemens 437
Craig Biggio 428
Mike Piazza 325
Sammy Sosa 322
Luis Gonzalez 309
Steve Finley 297
Kenny Lofton 288
Julio Franco 280
David Wells 210
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            This class is likely to shrink since it contains several free agents who hope to continue their careers. The only one who has officially retired is Biggio/
 
 
Active Players
 
            An impressive group of players are still active who have enough Win Shares to qualify for these lists when they retire.
 
Gary Sheffield 418 Win Shares
Frank Thomas 400
Greg Maddux 392
Ken Griffey, Jr. 381
Alex Rodriguez 377
Manny Ramirez 348
Jeff Kent 330
Chipper Jones 326
Jim Thome 325
Tom Glavine 289
Randy Johnson 309
Ivan Rodriguez 308
Derek Jeter 301
Jason Giambi 289
John Smoltz 286
Jim Edmonds 283
Carlos Delgado 275
Moises Alou 275
Vladimir Guerrero 272
Bobby Abreu 267
Brian Giles 266
Omar Vizquel 262
Mike Mussina 254
Curt Schilling 252
Todd Helton 252
Pedro Martinez 251
Jamie Moyer 202
Kenny Rogers 202
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Bill Gilbert
1/11/08

 

On-Base Percentage as a Measure of Offensive Performance

 

            About 20 years ago, I recall asking a group of knowledgeable baseball friends what they thought the best single statistic was for measuring offensive performance. The consensus was that it was slugging average. If I posed the same question today to respected baseball analysts, I’m certain that the answer would be on-base percentage and they could cite studies to support their position.
 
            The importance of on-base percentage in scoring runs is obvious. However, is it always the best way to evaluate a player’s performance? Consider the curious case of Morgan Ensberg. In 2005, Ensberg had a breakout year, batting .283 with 36 home runs, 101 RBIs and an on-base percentage of .388. He was voted the Most Valuable Player on Houston’s National League Championship team and finished 4th in the voting for the National League MVP.
 
            In 2006, he started out on an even stronger pace with 9 home runs and 19 RBIs in April. Among National League batters, only Albert Pujols had a better month. Ensberg finished the 2006 season with an on-base percentage of .396, an improvement over his strong showing in 2005. So he must have had a better year in 2006 than in 2005. Not so fast. Let’s take a look at the other numbers.
 
            In 2006, Ensberg batted .235 with 23 home runs and only 58 RBIs. He began the season batting 4th in the lineup behind Lance Berkman and in front of Preston Wilson and Jason Lane. His primary job was to drive in runs, and with Berkman having an outstanding season, he had plenty of opportunities.
 
            Ensberg’s performance tailed off sharply in May when he batted only .216 and was even worse in June. He was batting .174 for the month when he injured his right shoulder on June 9.  He missed a week before returning to the lineup. He was obviously hampered by the shoulder injury and finally went on the disabled list on July 10.
 
            Ensberg’s poor performance and injury prompted the Astros to trade away two prospects to Tampa Bay for third baseman Aubrey Huff. It also provided an opportunity for Mike Lamb to play third base. When Ensberg returned from the disabled list on August 1, he did not play well enough to regain his starting position and he played intermittently for the remainder of the season. In August and September, Ensberg had an on-base percentage well over .400 but had only 4 home runs and 14 RBIs in 171 plate appearances, an unacceptable rate for a batter in the middle of the order.
 
            Ensberg seemed reluctant to swing the bat when he came back, which may have been due to continued shoulder soreness. He did not hit with power and appeared to be working for walks which also resulted in a lot of strikeouts. He did not provide the type of offensive production that the offensively-challenged Astros needed in the middle of the batting order.
 
            With Ensberg’s failure as a run producer, the Astros needed to beef up the offense and may have overspent and mortgaged the future in signing free agent, Carlos Lee, to a 6-year, $100 million contract. Another reason for the need for more run production was the failure of Jason Lane to produce in 2006. Lane led all NL right fielders in home runs in 2005 with 26 while batting .267. However, in 2006, he hit just 15 home runs while batting only .201. Lane, like Ensberg, had a higher on-base percentage in 2006 than he did in 2005.
 
            What can be learned from this development is that on-base percentage, while important, especially for hitters at the top of the batting order, can be much less important for hitters in the middle of the order who are expected to be run producers.
 
Bill Gilbert     
3/6/07

Cooperstown Confidential

Cooperstown Confidential

Heroes, Rogues, and the Inside Story of the Baseball Hall of Fame
 
By Zev Chafets
 
A Baseball Book Review                                                
                                                                                                            Monte Cely
                                                                                                            cely@swbell.net
                                                                                                            (512) 310-9777
                                                                                                           
            Cooperstown Confidential is a critical expose’ of the Baseball Hall of Fame. The book was mentioned recently in sportswriter Kirk Bohls’ column in the Austin American-Statesman. The main thrust of the book is to highlight the hypocrisy and politics surrounding the Hall of Fame selection process. A lot of the book examines the “character clause”, otherwise known as Rule 5 of the BBWAA Rules for Election, which states “Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played”. 
 
The author’s premise seems to be that the Baseball Hall of Fame has, at best, only selectively enforced the “character clause”, admitting gamblers, racists, adulterers and the like. He feels that the Hall now faces a huge dilemma, and potential irrelevance, if it begins to selectively enforce the “character clause” for those eligible players coming out of the steroids era. The book also looks at the selection of minorities, as well as the politics of election of others that may be out of favor with the baseball establishment.
 
            Where the author did primary research or covered new (to me, at least) ground, such as his interview with Marvin Miller and the resignation of former Hall of Fame president Dale Petrosky, the book was at its best. Other areas of the book, regarding integration of blacks and Latinos and their consideration for the Hall, are old news. The “conclusions” about steroids, and their effect on the performance and health of baseball players, are controversial. The book advocates expanding Hall of Fame voting to new constituencies, including SABR members!
 
            The book was an easy read, and for the most part an entertaining one.
 
           Here are the key statistics:
 
Book:   Cooperstown Confidential, Heroes, Rogues, and the Inside Story of the Baseball Hall of Fame
Author:  Zev Chafets
Author Credentials: He is the author of eleven books, a contributor to the New York Times Magazine, a former columnist for the New York Daily News, and the founding managing editor of Jerusalem Report.
Published: 2009, Bloomsbury, ISBN 1-59691-545-5
Length: 237 pages
Price: Retail list – $25.00;    Online: from $15.00 + ship.

Five Best Books on Baseball as Business

The August 1, 2009 edition of the Wall Street Journal listed the "Five Best" books that excel as portraits of baseball as a business.  The list was compiled by Richard J. Tofel, an author and investigative journalist.  His "Five Best" are:

As They See ‘Em, by Bruce Weber, Scribner, 2009

Past Time, by Jules Tygiel, Oxford, 2000

Moneyball, by Michael Lewis, Norton, 2003

My Fifty Years in Baseball, by Ed Barrow, Coward-McCann, 1951

The Lords of the Realm, by John Helyar, Villard, 1994

Publications

This page lists recent publications by SABR Rogers Hornsby Chapter members.  Articles in SABR Journals and books authored by chapter members are included.  

SABR Journals are gradually being digitized.  Those that are currently avaiable are at the following link: http://research.sabr.org/journals/archive 

In the meantime, as Casey Stengel was fond of saying, "You can look it up!"

2010

"Memories of  Minor-League Traveler", Norman Macht, SABR 40, The National Pastime, 2010

2009

"Washington in 1887", Norman Macht, SABR 39, The National Pastime, 2009

"Washington Nicknames", Norman Macht, The National Pastime

"Does Baseball Deserve This Black Eye?  A Dissent from the Universal Casting of Shame and Blame on Kenesaw Mountain Landis for Baseball’s Failure to Sign Black Players Before 1946", Norman Macht, Baseball Research Journal – Summer 2009

2008

Change Up – An Oral History of 8 Key Events that Shaped Modern Baseball, Burke, Fornatale, with Jim Baker, Rodale

"Bullpen Cy Young Awards – When and Why Do Relievers Win It?", Monte Cely, Baseball Research Journal Vol. 37

2007

"Stolen Victories – Daring Dashes That Send the Fans Home Happy", Jan Larson, Baseball Research Journal Vol. 36

Connie Mack and the Early Years of Baseball, Norman Macht, University of Nebraska Press

"The Night Elrod Pitched" and "Johnny Vander Meer on Pete Rose", Norman Macht, National Pastime Vol. 27

2006

"Salary Arbitration: Burden or Benefit?", Bill Gilbert, Baseball Research Journal Vol. 35

"Are Balanced Teams More Successful?", Cyril Morong, BRJ Vol. 35

"The Cy Young Award, Individual or Team Recognition?", Monte Cely, BRJ Vol. 35

"Browns Play Pete Gray", Jim Baker in Rob Neyer’s Big Book of Baseball Blunders, Fireside

2005

Baseball in the Lone Star State, the Texas League’s Greatest Hits, Tom Kayser and D. King, Trinity University Press

"Has Greg Maddux Employed the "Bagwell Gambit" in His Career?’, Cyril Morong, Baseball Research Journal Vol. 34

 2004

"Historical Trends in Home-Field Advantage", Cyril Morong, Baseball Research Journal Vol. 32

2003

"RBI, Opportunities, and Power Hitting", Cyril Morong, Baseball Research Journal Vol. 31

1999

"Bibb Falk: The Player Who Filled the Shoes of Shoeless Joe Jackson", Charles Kaufman, National Pastime

 

 

 

 

Spring Training in Marlin, Texas

Texas was a frequent spring training destination in the early decades of the 20th Century.  While San Antonio was the most popular location for the major-leaguers, Marlin in central Texas hosted five different teams over the period of 1904-1923.   The New York Giants were long-term tenants at Marlin, and their operation at Emerson Park is generally credited with being the first “permanent” major league spring training facility.

Click on the link below to download a powerpoint presentation about spring training in Marlin, Texas.  This document was originally presented at the January, 2009 SABR Rogers Hornsby Chapter Winter Meeting at Texas State University.

NOTE – the powerpoint is about 10MB in size, so it may take a little while to download.

Spring_Training_in_Marlin_TX

Stolen Victories

“Stolen Victories” is a Powerpoint presentation given by Jan Larson at the January 2008 winter meeting of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter.

You can download the presentation for viewing on your computer: Steals of Home.

Jan can be reached at jan.a.larson@gmail.com.

Author’s notes:

In the “Stolen Victories” presentation, the 35 game ending (“walk off”) steals of home that have occurred in the American and National Leagues since the founding of the American League in 1901 are documented.

The author’s motivation to pursue this research project and the research methodology are described.

Interesting tidbits of trivia regarding the players that stole and the pitchers stolen upon are included along with an explanation of why one of the 35 game ending steals has an asterisk (at least in the author’s opinion).

Finally, all those SABR members who assisted with the research and/or were consulted on the project are listed.

Book Review: Odd Man Out

                                                                                                           
               Odd Man Out is written by Matt McCarthy, a Yale graduate who went on to attend Harvard Medical School and is currently doing a medical internship. In between Yale and Harvard, McCarthy was drafted by the Angels and spent a year pitching for their Provo, Utah farm team. This book is his first-hand account of a year in the minor leagues. 
 
An excerpt of this book was highlighted in Sports Illustrated earlier this year. McCarthy’s work has been described as a combination of the now-famous book,  Ball Four, and the classic baseball movie Bull Durham.  I think the description fits. The author takes us through his last few weeks at Yale in the Spring of 2002, his experience getting drafted & signed, his introduction to pro ball at the Angels training camp at Mesa, Arizona, his year pitching for and living in Provo, and the following year’s spring training back at Mesa.
 
Highlights include McCarthy’s first pro coach (Casey Kotchman’s father, whose good luck charm was the “Rally Penis”), the interactions between American and Latino players (the two groups segregate themselves), the team’s acclimation to Provo’s Mormon population and beliefs (difficult), and the author’s reaction to the many future major-leaguers that he meets. Players’ struggles with alcohol and drugs are also a part of this book.        
 
            I found Odd Man Out to be both entertaining and insightful. Once I started the book, I found it difficult to put down. SABR members should enjoy it, especially for those who find books such as Jim Bouton’s Ball Four and Jim Brosnan’s The Long Season appealing.
 
            Here are the key statistics:
 
Book:   Odd Man Out – A Year on the Mound with a Minor League Misfit
Author: Matt McCarthy
Author Credentials: the author is a graduate of Yale, Harvard Medical School, and is currently serving an internship at Columbia-Presbyterian Medical Center in New York City
Published: 2009, Viking, ISBN 978-0-670-02070-6
Length: 295 pages
Price: Retail list – $25.95;    Online: used from $11.00, new from $13.00 + ship.

Book Review: Venezuelan Bust, Baseball Boom

Venezuelan Bust, Baseball Boom is the story of former Astros instructor, scout and special assistant Andres Reiner. The son of a Hungarian refugee whose family eventually settled in Venezuela, Reiner picks up the sport as a child and eventually becomes a Latin American baseball impresario. 
 
The key event in the book is Reiner’s 1989 establishment of a Venezuelan baseball academy sponsored by the Houston Astros. In addition to Reiner’s story, background is also included on key Astros scouts and instructors in Venezuela. The book follows the successes and failures of prospects recruited by Reiner and his scouts, including such notables as Richard Hidalgo, Bobby Abreu and Johan Santana. The interaction with Houston’s home office and minor league system provides further background on the careers of the Venezuelan staff and their prospects.
 
            The author has traveled extensively in Latin America, sometimes accompanying the Astros’ staff on scouting trips in Venezuela, as well as in Colombia and Central America. His first-hand accounts add a lot to the book. Jamail seems to have great empathy for Reiner and his staff and recruits. 
 
            One criticism is that there are many grammatical errors in the book; they seem to increase in frequency as the book goes along.
 
            I found Venezuelan Bust, Baseball Boom to be very worthwhile. It should be especially appealing to SABR members with an interest in Latin American baseball and to Houston Astros fans. The book also has a Central Texas flavor as the author lives in Austin and several discussions/interviews took place at Dell Diamond.
 
            Here are the key statistics:
 
Book:   Venezuelan Bust, Baseball Boom
Author: Milton H. Jamail
Author Credentials: Full Count: Inside Cuban Baseball, a book about post revolutionary Cuban baseball published in 2000; Latin American baseball articles for Baseball America, USA Today Sports Weekly, Texas Monthly and other pubs
Published: 2008, University of Nebraska Press, ISBN 978-0-8032-1571-9
Length: 257 pages
Price: Retail list – $19.95;    Online: new from $7.50 + ship.

Book Review: The Long Season

 

The Long Season is considered by many to be a baseball classic, the first “tell all” book written by a baseball insider during his active career. Reviewers also claim this book is one of the best American diaries ever written.
 
The Long Season is written by pitcher Jim Brosnan about his 1959 season with the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds. Brosnan debuted in 1954 for the Chicago Cubs and returned to the majors in 1956. He pitched for nine seasons through 1963. He was a member of the 1961 pennant-winning Reds, of which he wrote a second book titled Pennant Race. Brosnan’s career record is 55-47, with 67 saves and an ERA of 3.54.
 
Brosnan uses a diary approach to write about his 1959 season. The narrative is organized by significant days and places, from his pre-season contract negotiations (January 26 at his home in Morton Grove, IL), to Spring Training (he arrives in St. Petersburg February 19), enduring early losing streaks with the Cardinals (he’s at his St. Louis apartment on June 8 when he finds out he’s been traded), and through the remainder of the season with Cincinnati (the closing entry is September 27 from Forbes Field in Pittsburgh).
 
The Long Season is often compared to pitcher Jim Bouton’s Ball Four. Brosnan wrote it 10 years before Bouton, and in retrospect after several decades this book seems much less controversial than Ball Four. However, at the time it stirred up resentment among some of Brosnan’s former teammates. In particular, Gino Cimoli threatened to punch Brosnan the next time they met. Solly Hemus, Brosnan’s Cardinals manager, had many choice words expressed in the press. Brosnan’s humor is subtle; I often found myself chuckling, as compared to laughing out loud at Bouton’s writing. 
 
I really enjoyed The Long Season. It should be an easy, entertaining read for SABR members. The book will also have a special appeal to those fans that were old enough to be following baseball in the late 1950s or early 1960s.
                       
Here’s the key statistics:
 
Book:   The Long Season
Author: Jim Brosnan
Author Credentials: Also wrote Pennant Race and numerous sports biographies.
Published: 1960, HarperCollins (hardcover), Ivan R. Dee (paperback)
ISBN 1-56663-418-0
Length: 276 pages
Price: Retail list – $16.95; Online: new from $11.00 + ship; used from $3.00 + ship.