Not all no decisions are created equal

“Not all no decisions are created equal” is a PowerPoint presentation given by Gilbert D. Martinez at SABR 41 on July 8, 2011, in Long Beach, California.

You can download the presentation for viewing on your computer by clicking here.

Special thanks to Cy Morong and Monte Cely for their input, feedback and support, and to the Rogers Hornsby Chapter.

Scorecasting

Norman Macht sent this review of Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won by Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim.  The book explores officiating bias, plus debunks some “conventional wisdom” about influences in sports.  Download it here: Book Review Scorecasting

Book Review: 1921

1921

The Yankees, The Giants, & the Battle for Baseball Supremacy
 in New York
 
by Lyle Spatz and Steve Steinberg
 
A Baseball Book Review
Monte Cely
(512) 310-9777
                                               
Do we really need another book about New York City baseball? 
 
Apparently so, as 1921 is the winner of SABR’s 2011 Seymour Award, honoring the year’s best book on baseball history or biography. The Seymour Medal Selection Committee released the following statement about the winning book:
 
"1921 describes the pennant races in both the National and American Leagues in that year. For the first time, New York had a subway World Series with the Giants and Yankees hooking up. Obviously, with Babe Ruth versus John McGraw, the World Series takes on added meaning given McGraw’s style of play and Ruth’s home runs. The book’s structure in taking the readers through the season, alternating between the two teams and leagues, is to be commended. The authors also provide significant insight into the thinking of the two great managers, John McGraw and Miller Huggins. In their descriptions and also with the help of quotes from the leading baseball columnists of that period, Spatz and Steinberg provide a rich and colorful description of baseball and life in 1921. This is an important addition to baseball literature.”
 
Some insights and facts from the book that I found interesting:
  • 1921 was the Yankees’ first AL pennant. 
  • 1921 was the last year that the best-of-nine World’s Series format was used.
  • The Polo Grounds was the first venue to host all of that year’s World Series games. (The Yankees were the Giants’ tenant.) This repeated itself in 1922. The only other occurrence was St. Louis’ Sportsman’s Park in 1944.
  • Babe Ruth often coached third base and enjoyed doing so.
  • Although a proponent of "inside baseball", John McGraw did not like to sacrifice.
  • The authors contend that Babe Ruth helped popularize baseball with immigrants, because the home run was easier to understand than the "scientific" approach to inside baseball.

I think the Seymour Medal committee got it right.  This is a well-researched and well-presented book.  Make sure to read the end-notes, as they add a lot of background to each chapter.

Yes, I guess we do need another book about New York baseball !

 
Here are the key statistics:
Book: 1921 – the Yankees, the Giants, & the Battle for Baseball Supremacy in New York
Authors:  Lyle Spatz and Steve Steinberg
Authors’ Credentials: Lyle Spatz is the author of many baseball books including Bad Bill Dahlen and Yankees Coming, Yankees GoingSteve Steinberg is the author of Baseball in St. Louis, 1900-1925 and numerous articles on early 20th Century ball.
Published: 2010, University of Nebraska Press; ISBN: 978-0-8032-2060-7
Length: 515 pages.
Price: Retail list – $31.95; Online – from $15.00 (new) + shipping.
           

Book Review : Odd Man Out

Odd Man Out
A Year on the Mound with a Minor League Misfit
 
by Matt McCarthy
 
A Baseball Book Review
Jan Larson
 
             Matt McCarthy was a left-handed starter on four bad teams at Yale University and in the summer of 2002 hoped to be chosen in the major league free agent draft.  The Anaheim Angels gave McCarthy at shot at his dream of playing in the Major Leagues by selecting him in the 21st round.  He quickly accepted a $1000 signing bonus and boarded a plane for training camp in Mesa, Arizona.
 
             Odd Man Out is McCarthy’s sometimes raunchy and always entertaining recollection of his one season pitching (or not) with the Class A Pioneer League’s Provo Angels.  McCarthy opens the clubhouse doors as he recounts tales of baudy behavior, excessive drinking, the temptation of steroids, good games and bad, pink slips, Dominicans, Weenie Wednesday and Larry King Night.
 
             McCarthy and his Angels teammates endured the culture shock of heavily Mormon Provo, 17 hour bus trips to Medicine Hat, Alberta, the endless search for "slump busters" and the assorted motivational techniques of manager Tom Kotchman.  Rally Monkey?  "Kotch" had other ways to "rally" his players.
 
             The book provides an insight into the life in the low minor leagues and is recommended for anyone that ever had such aspirations.
             
Here are the key statistics:
Book: Odd Man Out 
                        A Year on the Mound with a Minor League Misfit
Author:  Matt McCarthy
Author’s Credentials: McCarthy is currently an intern at Columbia Presbyterian Medical Center in New York City.
Published: 2009, Viking Penguin, a member of Penguin Group; ISBN: 978-0-670-02070-6
Length: 304 pages.
Price: Retail list – $25.95;    Online – from $1.04 (used) + shipping.

 

Jerry Grote: A Country Boy’s Baseball World

Jerry Grote may not like the comparison, but he just might be to catching what Pete Rose was to hustling. He competed with a temperament of being “hated” by opposing players. Or so he recalls.

Grote, who played most of his 16-year career catching for the New York Mets, had a little habit that likely did nothing to curry favor among opposing teams. When an inning ended on a strikeout, Grote rolled the ball to the far side of the pitcher’s mound, the one closest to the Mets dugout.

Thus, the opposing pitcher had to walk farther from his own dugout to pick up the ball. Not nice.

This happened quite a bit as Grote caught quite a few pitchers known for strikeouts — Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Don Sutton, Tommy John, Jerry Koosman, Tug McGraw, Burt Hooton and Dan Quisenberry. If that kind of lineup wasn’t tough enough on hitters, Grote’s own preparation made hitting against them more challenging.

He prepared for games unlike any other catcher, he told the Rogers Hornsby Chapter of SABR at the group’s Fifth Annual Winter Meeting at Texas State University.

“I took this game to a further level of catching than anyone,” Grote said. “ I planned every pitch and planned for every count. On game day, from 4 o’clock on, everyone left me alone. I was in another world. When a situation arose, I had already been there.”

He learned about defense by studying the offensive part of the game. The catcher learned about hitting from Nellie Fox, among others, who “talked hitting constantly.”

Grote filed away details as a way to calculate defensive strategies. “I learned that hitters look for different pitches if men are on base,” he said. “I have to know what you can hit and what you can’t. Setting up hitters is an unbelievable part of the game. I don’t want to see a .220 hitter coming up in the ninth inning who’s 0 for 3 or 0 for 4. He’s really going to try hard to get a hit. I want to face a guy who is (already) 1 for 3 (in the game) because he’s not going to work as hard. The guys at the top like hitting in pressure situations. I want to face five through nine (in the lineup).”

This mental part of the game only compounded his competitive nature. And when he got traded to Los Angeles for the 1977 season, he was greeted by players with “I hated playing against you,” he said. “They said, ‘We’re glad we’ve got you now, but we hated playing against you.’”

 

In the beginning

Grote started his career at age 21 with the Colt .45’s, with a sacrifice fly that scored Bob Aspromonte and ended it with the Los Angeles Dodgers, where at age 38 he went 3 for 4 with a grand slam home run, a double, a stolen base and seven RBIs. In between, he collected a slew of memories, starting with Yogi Berra.

“Yogi was quite a character,” he said, something everyone knows, even ducks. “A lot of those sayings happened while I was around him. When I got to the Mets in 1966, he was a coach. He left there in ’76. As a catcher, as you can imagine, we had a lot of time together. We were in spring training. I said, ‘Yogi what time is it?’ I needed to get my gear on. He said, ‘You mean now?’ No, an hour from now. ‘An hour from now it’s going to be 4:15.’”

Well, then, it was 3:15.

This became a team joke and Grote and others would regularly ask Yogi — and each other — the time.

Grote remembered another incident in which Yogi was trying to get in touch with his wife, Carmen. Carmen had left a message with someone else that she had gone to see a movie. “Did you get hold of Carmen?” Yogi was asked. He answered, “She said she went to see Dr. Zhivago. I said, ‘What’s wrong now?’”

 

He hearted New York

Grote said he loved playing in New York, but quickly acknowledged it’s not for everyone. It takes a special ability to survive the media and the fans. Playing in New York was another world,” he said. “My biggest thrill that did not involve an actual game came in New York. I was with the Dodgers in 1977. (Johnny) Oates was hurt, (Steve) Yeager hadn’t played. We were playing the Yankees and on the first night, everyone on the team is introduced. The fans booed (Tommy) Lasorda like you wouldn’t believe.

“They booed all of them. I’m cringing because we’re playing the Yankees and I played for the Mets. They introduced me and I got a standing ovation. It blew me away. It was the most thrilling experience for me. The fans in New York know their baseball. They knew they got 110 percent from me on that field everywhere. I loved playing in New York.”

Grote recalled numerous milestone moments. In 1964, with the Colt .45’s, Grote caught Ken Johnson’s complete game no-hitter in nine innings, but Houston lost to the Reds, 1-0. Rose hit a ground ball back to Johnson who overthrew Pete Runnels at first base. Rose went to second. Houston’s Nellie Fox booted a Vada Pinson grounder, allowing Rose to score the game’s only run.

“With all the great pitchers I caught, I caught one no-hitter and we lost,” he said.

Grote also set a major league record in 1970 when he recorded 20 putouts in a game in which Seaver tossed 19 strikeouts against the Padres.

The San Antonio, Texas, native said he like to think he was more than a catcher to his pitching staff.

In his words, he was a receiver. “You have to have soft hands to be a catcher,” he said. When he handled a staff composed of Seaver, Koosman, Ryan (who was his roommate in New York) and Tug McGraw, “we had seven guys who threw over 97. I wore out two gloves in those years. In one season with those guys, I had just five errors and one passed ball.”

He joked that that performance was attributed to good control by the pitchers but also self-defense. “If you didn’t catch the ball, you’d get killed.”

He’s also glad he didn’t have to face those pitchers too often, but when he did he fared fairly well. He recalls striking out against Seaver. It didn’t bother him, he said with a laugh. A lot of people struck out against him.

He said he was one for one against Ryan and Koosman. “Thankfully, I didn’t have to hit off of them for a career.”

 

Pitcher becomes a catcher

Grote was signed as a teen by scout Red Murph, who also signed Nolan Ryan and Mike Stanton. According to Grote, at least five dozen players he signed made it to the big leagues. “He was one of the best scouts there’s ever been,” he said. “There should be a place in the Hall of Fame for scouts.”

Murph scoured the Texas countryside to find Texas talent. Of course, Ryan was from Alvin, Texas. Stanton was discovered in Midland. Grote was from San Antonio. He lived in the country on 125 acres. His arm strength, proclaimed worthy of the majors as a ninth grader, was developed by throwing rocks at trees on the family property. “There wasn’t a tree that didn’t have a piece of bark knocked off it; and there wasn’t a rock there that I hadn’t thrown at least twice.”

When Murph scouted Grote he saw him play the field and pitch. Grote even threw a no-hitter in high school. The last time he caught was at age 12. Only when he joined the pro game seven years later, he became a catcher again.

He ended his 16-year major league career with a .991 fielding percentage, at the time of his retirement the eighth highest all-time among catchers.

Despite spending most of his career in baseball’s biggest cities, Grote never lost his country roots. He walks like he’s spent more time on a horse than on a subway. He belongs to a “cowboy church” in Salado, Texas. “I like two kinds of music,” he said. “Country and Western.”

And he wears a sunny, Roy Rogers smile when he talks baseball, which is about all the time. With spring baseball fast approaching, he’s back to preparing like a catcher as the color announcer for the AAA affiliate of the Texas Rangers in Round Rock.

 

 

Book Review: The Federal League

 

The Federal League of Base Ball Clubs
The History of an Outlaw Major League, 1914-1915
 
by Robert Peyton Wiggins
 
A Baseball Book Review
Monte Cely
(512) 310-9777
                                               
            The Federal League (FL) operated as a minor league in 1913 and as a now-recognized major league in 1914 and 1915. Author Wiggins tells the story of the magnates, managers and players that made up the “newest” of now-defunct “major leagues”.
 
            The FL directly challenged major league franchises in St. Louis, Chicago, Brooklyn, and Pittsburgh. Their franchise lineup was filled out with cities that formerly had major league franchises, or thought they deserved them. These included Indianapolis, Buffalo, Baltimore, and Kansas City. The Indianapolis franchise moved to Newark for the 1915 season.
 
            FL magnates included oilman Harry Sinclair, New York bakery king Robert Ward, old Oriole Ned Hanlon, and former player then lawyer John Montgomery Ward, among many others.
 
            Although the Federal League played its last game over ninety-five years ago, two very visible legacies of the FL remain: 1) Baseball’s privileged exemption from anti-trust law is a result of the Supreme Court’s ruling in Federal Baseball Club of Baltimore, Inc.  vs. National League of Professional Baseball Clubs, a lawsuit filed by the ownership of the Baltimore FL Terrapins, and 2) The Federal League’s most famous ball park, Weeghman Field, home of the Chicago Whales, is viewable whenever a Cubs home game is broadcast. It’s now known as Wrigley Field. 
 
            A SABR member interested in early 20th Century baseball should enjoy this well-researched book.
 
Here are the key statistics:
Book: The Federal League of Base Ball Clubs;
                        The History of an Outlaw Major League, 1914-1915
Author:  Robert Peyton Wiggins
Author’s Credentials: Wiggins is a member of SABR and lives in Charlottesville, VA. He has also written Chief Bender, A Baseball Biography
Published: 2009, McFarland; ISBN: 978-0-7864-3835-8
Length: 362 pages.
Price: Retail list – $35.00;    Online – from $45.00 (new) + shipping.

Who Were the Most Productive Offensive Players in 2010?

 

Who Were the Most Productive Offensive Players in 2010?
       
     By Bill Gilbert
 
      Numerous methods have been devised to measure offensive performance. The most common are batting average, on-base percentage and slugging average. Since none of these averages provides a complete picture by itself, a more comprehensive measure of offensive performance is useful. Such a measure would include the following elements:
 
1. The ability to get on base.
2. The ability to hit with power.
3. The ability to add value through baserunning.
 
      The first two elements are measured by on-base percentage and slugging average. A measure of offensive performance, which encompasses both as well as baserunning achievements, is Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA). This measure accounts for the net bases accumulated by a player per plate appearance. It is calculated as follows:
 
     BPA = (TB + BB + HB + SB – CS – GIDP) / (AB + BB + HB + SF)
 
     Where: BPA = Bases per Plate Appearance
            TB   = Total Bases
            BB   = Bases on Balls
            HB   = Hit by Pitch
            SB   = Stolen Bases
            CS   = Caught Stealing
            GIDP = Grounded into Double Plays
            AB   = At Bats
            SF   = Sacrifice Flies
 
The numerator accounts for all of the bases accumulated by a player, reduced by the number of times he is caught stealing or erases another runner by grounding into a double play. The denominator accounts for the plate appearances when the player is trying to generate bases for himself. Sacrifice hits are not included as plate appearances, since they represent the successful execution of the batter’s attempts to advance another runner.
 
      Major league BPA for the past fifteen years are shown below along with the number of players with BPA over .550 and .600:
 
Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
 BPA .471 .463 .463 .479 .481 .468 .457 .461 .468 .456 .470 .463 .458 .461 .446
.550   41   34   41   50   50   46   39  42   33   34   46   34   41   42   19
.600   21   15   22   29   30   26   17  15   18   13   14   15   11   16    7
 
Offensive production peaked in 2000 before declining in the early years of this decade. BPA in 2010 was down sharply from 2009, representing a 3.7% decline in offensive production, and a 7.3% reduction from the peak in 2000.  
 
      In the 1990s, there were 14 individual .700 BPA seasons. In the ten year period from 2000 to 2009, there were 18. The highest BPA in the 1990s was recorded by Mark McGwire in 1998 (.799). Barry Bonds shattered that with .907 in 2001, the highest figure ever recorded, topping Babe Ruth’s best two years (1920 and 1921).  Bonds followed that with .869 in 2002, .818 in 2003 and .882 in 2004. There have not been any hitters with a BPA of .700 in 2008, 2009 and 2010. The last player to make it was Alex Rodriguez (.702) in 2007. Surprisingly, Albert Pujols has not had a .700 BPA in his ten seasons. However, he was the major league leader in 2009 by a large margin with a BPA of .696, the highest figure of his career, and the second time he has finished on top.
 
 
 
      The .700 BPA seasons in 2000-2010 are listed below:
   
Player              Team           Year       BPA
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2001      .907
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2004      .882
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2002      .869
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2003      .818
Sammy Sosa          Chicago Cubs   2001      .758
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2000      .745
Jim Thome           Cleveland      2002      .728
Manny Ramirez       Cleveland      2000      .726
Todd Helton         Colorado       2000      .720
Luis Gonzalez       Arizona        2001      .713
Todd Helton         Colorado       2001      .709
Carlos Delgado      Toronto        2000      .707
Larry Walker        Colorado       2001      .707
Jason Giambi        Oakland        2000      .706
Travis Hafner       Cleveland      2006      .703
Alex Rodriguez      NY Yankees     2007      .702
Jason Giambi        Oakland        2001      .700
Ryan Howard         Philadelphia   2006      .700
 
The yearly leaders since 1992 are as follows:
 
1992 Bonds        .734 1993 Bonds     .740 1994 Bagwell  .768
1995 Belle        .692 1996 McGwire   .765 1997 Walker   .770
1998 McGwire      .799 1999 McGwire   .735 2000 Bonds    .745 
2001 Bonds       . 907 2002 Bonds     .869 2003 Bonds    .818
2004 Bonds        .882 2005 D. Lee    .699 2006 Hafner   .703
2007 A. Rodriguez .702 2008 Pujols    .685 2009 Pujols   .696
2010 Bautista     .671
 
      The benchmark for an outstanding individual season is .600. Following is a list of 7 players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and with a BPA of .600 in 2010.
 
Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA) of .600+ in 2010
————————————————- 
                                No. of
                 2010   2009     .600+
   Player         BPA    BPA LG Seasons Comments          
 1 Bautista, J   .671   .482   A    1    The big surprise of the season.
 2 Votto, J.     .657   .617   N    2    Some competition for Pujols.    
 3 Hamilton, J.  .653   .460   A    1    Needs to stay healthy.
 4 Cabrera, M.   .642   .568   A    2    Best year so far.
 5 Pujols, A.    .634   .696   N    8    A little below par.
 6 Gonzalez, C.  .632   .596   N    1    Emerging superstar.
 7 Konerko, P.   .613   .517   A    1    Career year at age 34.
 
      The only repeaters from last year’s list are Pujols and Votto. Fourteen other players had a BPA over .600 in 2009 but fell short in 2010. Most of these players fell off sharply in either power or average after strong seasons in 2009.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                   No. of
                   2010   2009     .600+
   Player           BPA   BPA LG Seasons Comments            
 1 Fielder, P.     .555   .640   N    2    Power and average way down.
 2 Mauer, J.       .488   .619   A    1    Only 9 HR vs. 28 in 2009.
 3 Zobrist, B.     .458   .617   A    1    2009 looks like a fluke.
 4 Lee, D.         .454   .611   N    2    Has a history of ups and downs.
 5 Utley, C.       .542   .611   N    2    HR dropped from 31 to 16.
 6 Howard, R.      .534   .610   N    3    Power way off in 2010.
 7 Bay, J.         .479   .610   N    2    Loss of power and injury took toll.
 8 Youkilis, K.    .623   .609   A    1    Not enough PA to qualify.
 9 Reynolds, M.    .508   .607   N    1    BAVG of .198 won’t cut it.
10 Rodriguez, A.   .538   .604   A   11    Four straight years under .290 BAVG.
11 Ramirez, H.     .544   .604   N    3    May have peaked in 2009.
12 Pena, C.        .503   .604   A    2    BAVG of .196 was a killer.
13 Braun, R.       .535   .603   N    1    First year under 30 HR.
14 Teixeira, M.    .532   .603   A    4    Lowest BAVG (.256) of career.
 
      Seven players have a BPA over .600 for their careers:
 
                             2010      Career
Player             Age       BPA        BPA    Comments.
————        —       —-       —-   ——–
Albert Pujols       30      .634       .650    Consistently great.
Alex Rodriguez      34      .538       .622    Tailing off.
Jim Thome           39      .668       .618    Amazing year.
Manny Ramirez       38      .525       .618    Winding down.
Ryan Howard         30      .534       .609    Surprising drop.
Joey Votto          26      .657       .607    Looks like the real deal.    
Lance Berkman       34      .472       .603    Serious decline in 2010.
 
Another list of interest is one containing the names of players with a BPA of over .600 in 2010 who did not have enough plate appearances (PA) to qualify for the batting title. These four players were very productive when they played but missed significant time due to injury or other reasons.
                                  
Player          Age  BPA   PA    Comments
————— —   —- —   —————————
Jim Thome        39  .668 340   Provided big boost for Twins.
Justin Morneau   29  .652 348   Derailed by concussion 
Kevin Youkilis   31  .623 435   Produced when healthy.  
Nelson Cruz      29  .608 445   Slowed by repeated hamstring problems.
 
 
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, sixteen players who earned enough playing time to qualify for the batting title had a BPA less than .400 in 2010. This list is getting longer every year. As usual most are middle infielders and catchers.  
 
Player               BPA      Comments
—————–   —-      ——————————
Miguel Tejada       .396      Slow decline continues.
Chone Figgins       .393      Big disappointment in Seattle.                 
Elvis Andrus        .391      Held back by lack of power.
Kevin Kouzmanoff    .391      First year below .400.
Erick Aybar         .389      Big drop from strong 2009.
Skip Schumaker      .385      Disappointing season.
Orlando Cabrera     .380      Slowly declining.
Kurt Suzuki         .377      Worst year of 4-year career.
A. J. Pierzynski    .376      A little below his norm.
Yadier Molina       .372      Carried by his defense.
Alberto Callaspo    .370      Only .317 after trade to Angels.
Alcides Escobar     .369      Big time sophomore slump.
Yunel Escobar       .367      Are these guys the same player?
Ryan Theriot        .357      Flopped after trade to Dodgers.
Jose Lopez          .334      Way below career norm.
Cesar Izturis       .302      Career BPA of .355.
 
 
The following four players compiled a batting average over .300, an on-base average over .400, a slugging percentage over .500 and bases per plate appearance over .600 in 2010:
 
Player (2010)        BAVG       OBA       SLG       BPA       OPS
Josh Hamilton        .359      .411      .633      .653     1.044
Miguel Cabrera       .328      .420      .622      .642     1.042
Joey Votto           .324      .424      .600      .657     1.024
Albert Pujols        .312      .414      .596      .634     1.011
 
      Two active players have these numbers for their careers, although Manny Ramirez fell short in 2010:
 
Player (Career)      BAVG       OBA       SLG       BPA        OPS
Albert Pujols        .331      .426      .624      .650      1.050
Manny Ramirez        .313      .411      .586      .618       .998
 
Bill Gilbert
12/4/10