Category: Research & Articles

Astros End Season on Low Note

 

Astros End Season on a Low Note
 
 
            The Houston Astros limped to the finish line in 2009 with a 74-88 record after being swept by the lowly Mets on the final weekend. Starting on September 1, the Astros went 11-20 as the Club fell short in all aspects of the game.
 
            After a winless road trip (0-6) in mid-September, Manager Cecil Cooper was replaced by Third Base Coach, Dave Clark on September 21 on an interim basis. While Clark brought some energy to the position and established better communications, the team did not perform any better with a record of 4-9 in Clark’s 13 games at the helm. A search is currently underway for a new manager and Clark is one of the candidates.
 
            The Astros were well below the National League average in both hitting and pitching. The team scored 643 runs, an average of 3.97 per game and allowed 770, an average of 4.75 per game. Only Pittsburgh and San Diego scored fewer runs and only Washington, Milwaukee and Arizona allowed more. The team On-Base Percentage was .319, ranking 13th in the league. The team ERA of 4.54 also ranked
13th. The Astros led the league in grounding into double plays with 153.
 
            Despite their problems, there were some bright spots in the final month. The Astros swept a four game series against the Phillies in Minute Maid Park early in the month. Miguel Tejada, after slumping in August, finished strong with a 21-game hitting streak including a couple of 4-hit games and he led the league in doubles with 46. His 199 hits were second only to Craig Biggio’s 210 in 1998 in the team’s 48-year history. Michael Bourn continued his breakout year, leading the league in stolen bases with 61 and playing sensational defense in center field which should win him a Gold Glove. Rookie Bud Norris recorded 4 strong starts in September before being shut down after reaching a pre-set innings limit. He pitched 55 innings with the Astros, slightly exceeding the rookie threshold of 50 so he will not be classified as a rookie in 2010 when he should be in the starting rotation.
 
            Tejada led the team in hitting with an average of .313 and Carlos Lee led in home runs with 26, one more than Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence. Lee also led in RBIs with 102 while batting an even .300. Berkman, in an off-year, led the team with a .399 on-base average and a .509 slugging average, but saw his career batting average drop from .302 to .299.
 
            Wandy Rodriguez, the only pitcher on the staff with more than 8 wins, became the staff ace with a 14-12 record and an ERA of 3.02.   Roy Oswalt, hampered by nagging injuries, had his worst season with an 8-6 record and a 4.12 ERA. Jose Valverde had 25 saves and LaTroy Hawkins had 11. The bullpen experienced considerable turnover and a total of 18 pitchers won at least one game.
 
            Rebuilding the minor league system is continuing but, for the second straight year, all of the domestic Astro minor league teams had losing records. The 2008 draft class, led by No.1 pick, catcher Jason Castro, looks promising. Castro played well at Double-A Corpus Christi after a mid-season promotion. He should be at Triple-A Round Rock in 2010 but will be given a chance to make the big league roster in spring training. College outfielders T. J. Steele, Jay Shuck and Jon Gaston, all drafted in 2008, had strong showings at High Class A, Lancaster, California in 2009 and should be at Corpus Christi in 2010. High school pitchers, Ross Seaton, Jordan Lyles and Brad Dydalowicz, also drafted in 2008, pitched well at Low Class A Lexington and could also be at Corpus Christi in 2010.
 
            The Astros losing record in 2009 was only their third since Jeff Bagwell’s rookie year in 1991. However, two of the losing seasons were in the last three years. The team obviously needs some reinforcements in order to be competitive, especially in the starting rotation. Some tough decisions must be faced in the off-season with Tejada, Valverde, Hawkins and Geoff Blum eligible for free agency.
 
Bill Gilbert
10/12/09

Chasing 200 Hits in 2009

With the completion of the 2009 season (well, there is Game #163, Twins-Tigers; more on that in a moment), only four players made it to the 200 hit plateau, one more than last year.

 

They are Ichiro Suzuki (225) of the Seattle Mariners, Derek Jeter (212) and Robinson Cano (204) of the New York Yankees and Ryan Braun (203) of the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

As you probably already know, this was Ichiro’s ninth consecutive season of 200+ hits, setting a record for most consecutive 200-hit seasons (breaking Wee Willie Keeler’s mark of eight consecutive seasons). Only Pete Rose has had more 200+ hit seasons; he had 10, a mark that Ichiro will try to tie next season.

 

Ichiro’s achievement is notable, especially because he started the season on the disabled list – the first time in his MLB career that he’s missed playing time due to an injury. He also missed some playing time in August because of an injury, sitting out a total of 16 games during the season.

 

All those hits didn’t necessarily translate into runs. According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, Ichiro’s 88 runs scored are the fewest by a player with at least 220 hits in a season.

 

For Jeter, this was his seventh season of 200+ hits.

 

For both Cano and Braun, this was their first season of 200+ hits.

 

It’s not the first time teammates have combined for 200+ hits. In fact, in the 2000’s alone, it’s been done five times, including this year’s Jeter-Cano tandem.

 

The last time was in 2007 when Magglio Ordonez (216) and Placido Polanco (200) did so. Before that, Alfonso Soriano (209) and Bernie Williams (204) of the Yankees teamed up for 200+ hits in 2002. In 2001, Ichiro (242) and Brett Boone (206) combined for the feat. In 2000, Johnny Damon (214) and Mike Sweeney (206) of the Royals were the dynamic duo.

 

You may note that all of those instances were done in the American League. The last time a National League duo achieved this was in 1998 when Dante Bichette (219) and Vinny Castillo (206) of the Colorado Rockies did so.

 

How often have three teammates all reached 200 hits? Since 1930, it’s been done six times – the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs in 1930, the 1935 New York Giants, the 1963 St. Louis Cardinals, the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers and the 1991 Texas Rangers.

 

Only once since 1930 has four teammates each reach 200 hits in the same season – the 1937 Detroit Tigers.

 

Miguel Tejada nearly joined the list of 200+ hits, but fell one short. He went 1-4 in the Astros’ last game, leaving him with 199 total hits. It would have been his fourth 200 hit season.

 

So, what about the one-game playoff between the Tigers and the Twins? Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers currently has 196 hits. Since this 163rd game counts as part of the regular season, he could reach 200. If so, we’ll add an addendum to this report (see update below). It would be his first 200 hit season. In 2005 with the Marlins, he had 198 hits, the closest he’s come to 200.

 

Joe Mauer of the Twins has 189 hits, so it’s unlikely he’ll reach 200 this season.

 

UPDATE: In a thrilling 6-5 Twins win over the Tigers in the 12th inning, Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers went 2-5, meaning that he matched his 2005 total of 198 hits. Also, Joe Mauer of the Twins went 2-4, bringing his hit total to 191 for the year.

 

Hal Smith Was a World Series Hero – for 15 Minutes

 

            If you want to know how fickle fame can be, just ask Hal Smith. For fifteen minutes on the afternoon of October 13, 1960, typesetters at Pittsburgh newspapers had headlines set in big bold letters: “Smith Home Run Wins World Series for Bucs.”
            In the Forbes Field press box, writers were tearing up and rewriting their Game 7 leads. The second-string catcher’s three-run home run in the bottom of the eighth had turned the Yankees’ 7-6 lead into a Pirates’ 9-7 win – with three outs to go.
            Had Pirates ace Bob Friend been able to get those three outs, or if first baseman Rocky Nelson hadn’t held the ball instead of making a tag or throwing it home, there would have been no 9-9 tie for Bill Mazeroski to break in the last of the ninth. Smith, not Maz, would be immortalized as the hero of the ‘60 World Series.
            Approaching the fiftieth anniversary of that highlight of his fifteen-year baseball career, the 78-year-ld Smith recalled that historic day at his home in Columbus, Texas. He had entered the game in the eighth inning replacing Smoky Burgess, who had left for a pinch-runner. The Yankees scored 2 in the top of the eighth and led 7-4. In the bottom of the eighth, the Pirates had 2 runs in, Dick Groat on third, and Roberto Clemente on first when Smith came up to bat. Jim Coates was the pitcher.
            “I was probably a little tense until I stepped into the batters box,” Smith said. “I was talking to myself: ‘Okay, Hal, all you want to do is get good wood on the ball, drive it hard and get at least one run in to tie this game.’ I just concentrated on getting a base hit.”
            He hit it into the left field seats.
            “As soon as I hit it I knew I’d hit it out of the park. It always felt good to hit a home run in a game, but that’s all I felt. When I got to second base and looked up, there were people on top of the dugouts going crazy, screaming and yelling. I thought they were going to come out of the stands onto the field. Then it hit me what I’d done and I said, ‘Wow’ and got really excited.
            “When I got to home plate Clemente and Groat grabbed me. Other teammates came out of the dugout but they were calm. There was no big celebration, no high-fives and hugging and all that stuff. The game wasn’t over.
            “Friend started the top of the ninth. Richardson singled. Long singled. Haddix came in to pitch to Maris, who fouled out. Mantle singled. Now it’s 9-8. McDougald, running for Long, was on third. Berra hit a ground ball to Nelson at first. Nelson stepped on the bag, then fell asleep. Mantle ducked back to first untagged. McDougald was heading for home. I’m standing at home plate ready to make an easy play on McDougald for the third out and there’s no throw. He scores and it’s tied 9-9.”
            That set the stage for Maz’s historic walk-off home run.
            Pittsburgh radio announced Bob Prince had gone into the clubhouse after Smith’s homer, unaware of what had followed it. “When we came in he was looking for me to interview as the hero of the game,” Smith said, “until somebody told him Maz had hit the game-winner. But I was still the hero to general manager Joe Brown. He told me my home run was the most exciting hit he’d ever seen.
            “We were all happy to have won, but I couldn’t resist asking Rocky Nelson why he hadn’t thrown the ball to me for the play at the plate. He said, ‘I couldn’t find you.’
            “I said, ‘Well, I was standing right there at that home plate.’”
            Ironically, Smith was originally signed by the Yankees in 1949. Born in West Frankfort, IL in 1930, he grew up listening to Cardinals games on the radio. When he was 12, the family moved to Detroit. There he played high school football – “I had 36 football scholarship offers” – and baseball. “In those days the scouts told kids they’d be losing four years if they went to college, and would never make it to the majors.” Two days after graduation, Yankees scout Ray Meyers put him and his father on a train to New York for a tryout. He signed for a $5,000 bonus and a $225 a month contract.
            Smith spent six years in the minor leagues, consistently batting over .300. He credits the late Bill Dickey with teaching him the most about the mechanics of catching. But the Yankees’ pipeline was full of catchers behind Yogi Berra. On November 17, 1954, Smith was part of a blockbuster trade involving 17 players. Ten of them went from New York to Baltimore for Bob Turley, Don Larsen, and five others.
            In 1956 he was traded to Kansas City and spent the next three years with the seventh-place A’s. “They were always trading away their good players,” Smith said. “There was a losing mentality. In spring training the manager would say, ‘Let’s look good losing this year. Let’s do things right.’’
            In 1957 Smith was the only American League catcher to hit .300. He held out for a $2,500 raise and finally got it. After that he played third and first in addition to catching.
            The only good thing he got out of his stay in Kansas City was catching veteran pitcher Ned Garver, who “taught me more about pitching than anybody.”
            Rescued by a trade to Pittsburgh in 1960,he split the catching load with Burgess, batting .295 with 11 home runs and 45 RBI.
            “Danny Murtaugh was a good manager. He knew people, and made you want to play. But he let us alone. He knew he had a veteran team who knew how to play the game.”
            The Pirates fell to sixth in 1961. Smith was drafted by the expansion Houston Colt .45s and endured two more years with losing clubs. Released by Houston, he played half the 1964 season with Cincinnati and finished the year with San Diego before hanging up the spikes.
            Smith worked as a sales manager for Jessup Steel for more than 20 years after leaving baseball. He took 15 years’ worth of foul tips and was hit in the head by swung bats twice, but never had a sore arm “until I was 50 playing softball with my sons.” But he has put in plenty of hospital time in the past few years with several operations including a quadruple bypass. He doesn’t play softball anymore, but gets in a few golf rounds every week.
            Although his temporary game-winning home run was eclipsed by Maz’s heroics almost 50 years ago, Pittsburgh fans haven’t forgotten him. He’s still invited to old-timers’ reunions and fields half a dozen autograph requests a week. Another man who hasn’t forgotten him is the other Hal Smith – Hal R. – a catcher for the Cardinals at that time.
            “We were often taken for each other by fans,” Hal W. said. “He got a lot of compliments for hitting that home run.” 

Satchel – The Life and Times of an American Legend

Satchel

The Life and Times of an American Legend
 
by Larry Tye
 
A Baseball Book Review                                                
                                                                                                            Monte Cely
                                                                                                            cely@swbell.net
                                                                                                            (512) 310-9777
                                                                                                           
            Satchel is a nostalgic and generally very positive look at the life and times of Leroy “Satchel” Paige. The book covers many aspects of Satchel’s life, from his birth in poverty in Mobile, Alabama, thru his days in reform school, all aspects of his pitching career, and his “life after baseball” (although he never really “retired”). The book comments on his negatives such as contract-jumping, philandering, and the likelihood that he committed bigamy, but it treats those aspects of his life lightly. For the most part, it pictures a great athlete that marched to his own tune, was a top-notch pitcher as well as top-drawing entertainer, and fought racism in his own manner.
 
            The book impressed upon me what a high-profile star Satchel actually was in the 1930s and 1940s. Interviews and newspaper quotes reinforce the image of a big media star, rivaling the major leaguers in attention and earnings. Of special interest to SABR members should be the compilation of his “league” pitching statistics. In recorded “league” games in the U.S. and Latin America, including the Negro Leagues, major leagues, Caribbean winter leagues, etc, Satchel recorded 278 wins and 135 losses. Add in the thousands of barnstorming and “special gate” games in which he pitched, and you get the picture of an overpowering pitcher with unheard-of longevity.     
 
            The book was both enjoyable and enlightening.
 
          
 
Here are the key statistics:
 
Book:   Satchel – The Life and Times of an American Legend
Author:  Larry Tye
Author Credentials: He is an author, a journalist at The Boston Globe, and a Nieman Fellow at Harvard. He has authored four other books.
Published: 2009, Random House, ISBN 978-1-4000-6651-3
Length: 392 pages
Price: Retail list – $26.00;    Online: from $16.00 + shipping.

Led the league in hits and won MVP

Gilbert D. Martinez                        SABR — Rogers Hornsby Chapter

Nov. 19, 2008

 

MVP winners who also led their league in hits in the modern era (since 1931)

(Note: indented lines indicate players who met the criteria, but did not achieve at least 200 hits)

 

Dustin Pedroia, BOS (2008) 213 hits – tied with Suzuki

Ichiro Suzuki, SEA (2001) 242 hits

            Terry Pendleton, ATL (1991) 187 hits

Willie McGee, STL (1985) 216 hits

Cal Ripken, BAL (1983) 211 hits

Robin Yount, MIL (1982) 210 hits

Jim Rice, BOS (1978) 213 hits

Rod Carew, MIN (1977) 239 hits

Pete Rose, CIN (1973) 230 hits

Joe Torre, STL (1971) 230 hits

Carl Yastrzemski, BOS (1967) 189 hits

Stan Musial, STL (1948) 230 hits

Stan Musial, STL (1946) 228 hits

Stan Musial, STL (1943) 220 hits

            Frank McCormick, CIN (1940) 191 hits – tied with Stan Hack, CHC

Joe Medwick, STL (1937) 237 hits

Chuck Klein, PHI (1932) 226 hits

 

 

 

 

 

How Good Is This Guy?

 

How Good Is This Guy?
 
            In September, 2005, I wrote an article entitled, “The Best Hitter in the World”. The subject was Albert Pujols. It might have been a bold statement to make about a player that had not yet completed 5 years in the major leagues and not won an MVP Award. Since then, Pujols has kept right on going. In the month after my article was written, I was in Minute Maid Park in Houston when Pujols launched his moon shot off Brad Lidge to temporarily keep the Cardinals in The National League Championship Series.
 
            After 8 full seasons in the major leagues at the age of 29, this may be a good time for a reassessment. A reasonable assumption might be that Pujols is at the midway point of a 16 year career. If, in the next 8 years, he can duplicate what he has accomplished in his first 8 years, he would wind up with the following numbers:
 
Category Value Rank Comment
Batting Average .334 23  
On-Base Percentage .425 13  
Slugging Average .624 4 Behind Ruth, Williams, Gehrig
OPS 1.049 5 Also behind Bonds
Hits 3,062 19  
Home Runs 638 5  
RBIs 1954 5  
 
  
            Of course, Pujols may not continue at this rate. The landscape is littered with players like Ron Santo, Jim Rice, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy and Roberto Alomar who appeared to be on the way to solid Hall of Fame careers but who suddenly lost their skills in their early thirties. The same could happen with Pujols but with his consistency and makeup, I would not expect it.
 
            Pujols may extend his career beyond 16 years as many Hall of Fame players have done. This would enhance his counting stats (hits, home runs), probably with some deterioration of his rate stats
 
            The most remarkable aspect of Pujols’ career is his consistency. His lowest batting average in his 8 years is .314 in 2002 and his lowest power numbers were in 2007 with 32 home runs and 103 RBIs. He has averaged 40 home runs and 122 RBIs in his 8 years but has never led the league in either category. He has finished in the top four in the NL MVP voting in 7 of his 8 years but has won the award only twice.
 
            Back to the original question of how good he is, he should take his place in the top five along with Ruth, Williams, Gehrig and Bonds as possibly the best right-handed hitter of all time.
 
Bill Gilbert
2/16/09          

Rating the 2009 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares

 

 
 
Rating the 2009 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares
 
By Bill Gilbert
 
One of the first items of business in baseball each year is the announcement of players elected to the Hall of Fame. This leads to lots of speculation and a little analysis prior to the announcement which is scheduled for January 12, 2009. 
 
Many systems exist for evaluating player performance. One such system, the Win Shares method, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance – offense, defense and pitching. James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer. However, future standards may be different. Players with 300-350 Win Shares in the past have generally gone into the Hall of Fame. In the future, they more often will not”.
 
The 2009 class of Hall of Fame candidates is not a strong one. It consists of 13 holdovers and 10 players eligible for the first time.  Seven holdovers have over 300 Win Shares, Tim Raines with 390, Mark McGwire with 342, Andre Dawson, 340, Bert Blyleven, 339, Dave Parker, 327, Alan Trammell 318 and Harold Baines with 307. The only newcomer on the list with over 300 Win Shares is Rickey Henderson with 535. Henderson ranks 15th on the all-time Win Shares list, slightly ahead of Frank Robinson, Rogers Hornsby and Lou Gehrig, and is certain to be elected on the first ballot. The only other newcomer who is even close to 300 win shares is Mark Grace with 294.
 
 In 2008, Goose Gossage was elected with 78% of the votes and Dave Concepcion (16%) was unsuccessful in his last (15th) year and is not on the 2009 ballot. No newcomers were elected and only Raines had enough votes to remain on the ballot (25%).
 
With Raines the only strong candidate on the 2008 ballot, most of the holdovers gained ground. The biggest gainers were Bert Blyleven (76 votes), Andre Dawson (49 votes) and Jim Rice (46 votes). Rice’s total of 392 votes (72.2%) puts him within striking distance of the 75% required for election and makes it very likely he will make it in 2009, his last year on the BBWAA ballot. Dawson (65.9%) and Blyleven (61.9%) have also moved into position for a run at election in the next couple of years.
 
Mark McGwire is a special case.  He has the numbers to be elected but remains tainted with the steroid cloud. Voters are likely to wait until more is known about the extent of steroid usage before giving McGwire a pass. He failed to gain ground in 2008 so it is likely to be a slow process.
 
Raines would appear to have the credentials for election but received only 24% of the votes in his first year on the ballot. He should gain significantly in 2009 but has a long way to go. On the 2009 ballot, no newcomers, other than Henderson, are likely to receive the 5% required to remain on the ballot next year.
 
Following is a list of Win Shares for the 23 players on the ballot. Players on the ballot for the first time are shown in bold. Voting results for 2006, 2007 and 2008 are shown for the holdovers.
 
 
 
Player      Win Shares 2006 Votes 2006 Percent 2007 Votes 2007 Percent 2008 Votes 2008 Percent
Rickey Henderson 535            
Tim Raines 390         132 24.3
Mark McGwire 342     128 23.5 128 23.6
Andre Dawson 340 317 61.0 309 56.7 358 65.9
Bert Blyleven 339 277 53.3 260 47.7 336 61.9
Dave Parker 327 76 14.4 62 11.4 82 15.1
Alan Trammell 318 92 17.7 73 13.4 99 18.2
Harold Baines 307     29 5.3 28 5.2
Dale Murphy 294 56 10.8 50 9.2 75 13.8
Mark Grace 294            
Tommy John 289 154 29.6 125 22.9 158 29.1
Jim Rice 282 337 64.8 346 63.5 392 72.2
Don Mattingly 263 64 12.3 54 9.9 86 15.8
Jay Bell 245            
Matt Williams 241            
Jack Morris 225 214 41.2 202 37.1 233 42.9
Ron Gant 206            
David Cone 205            
Mo Vaughn 201            
Greg Vaughn 199            
Lee Smith 198 234 45.0 217 39.8 235 43.3
Jesse Orosco 141            
Dan Plesac 113            
 
 
            The last 13 players elected by the Baseball Writers have averaged 344 Win Shares, a figure exceeded by only Henderson and Raines on the ballot this year.
 
 
Player Year Win Shares
Dave Winfield 2001 415
Kirby Puckett 2001 281
Ozzie Smith 2002 325
Gary Carter 2003 337
Eddie Murray 2003 437
Paul Molitor 2004 414
Dennis Eckersley 2004 301
Wade Boggs 2005 394
Ryne Sandberg 2005 346
Bruce Sutter 2006 168
Cal Ripken 2007 427
Tony Gwynn 2007 398
Goose Gossage 2008 223
     
Average   344
 
 
Win Shares are fundamentally a quantitative measure of a player’s accomplishments. A measure of the quality of a player’s performance is OPS+ which compares his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average) with the league average during his career. An OPS+ of 120 suggests that his performance is 20% better than that of a league average player. A similar approach (ERA+) can be used to compare a pitcher’s ERA against the league average during his career. 
 
Following is a rank order of OPS+ and ERA+ for the 23 candidates on the 2009 ballot:
 
Batter OPS+ Pitcher ERA+
Mark McGwire 162 Lee Smith 131
Mo Vaughn 132 Jesse Orosco 125
Jim Rice 128 David Cone 120
Rickey Henderson 127 Bert Blyleven 118
Don Mattingly 127 Dan Plesac 117
Tim Raines 123 Tommy John 110
Dale Murphy 121 Jack Morris 105
Dave Parker 121    
Harold Baines 120    
Andre Dawson 119    
Mark Grace 119    
Ron Gant 112    
Greg Vaughn 112    
Matt Williams 112    
Alan Trammell 110    
Jay Bell 101    
 
 
            The Win Shares system favors players with long productive careers like Raines, Dawson and Blyleven while OPS+ rewards batters who had shorter, more dominant careers like Mo Vaughan, Rice and Mattingly. ERA+ favors relief pitchers since their ERAs are generally lower because they are not charged with runs scored by inherited runners.
 
Conclusions: 
 
1.      Rickey Henderson will be elected easily in 2009 and will give a unique acceptance speech.
 
2.      Jim Rice, a borderline candidate, will be elected in his final year on the ballot.
 
3    Mark McGwire will not come close but will gain some ground and could get elected in the future. He is the only eligible player with over 500 home runs not in the Hall.
 
4.  No newcomers other than Henderson will receive enough votes to remain on the ballot.
 
5.  BBWAA voters typically average voting for about 5 candidates on their ballots. With the lack of attractive new candidates on the ballot, the leading holdovers are likely to pick up more votes. In addition to Rice, players like Blyleven and Dawson could achieve significant gains to put them in position for possible election in the next two years.
 
6.   There will not be a groundswell of support for Jesse Orosco and Dan Plesac.
 
If I had a ballot, I would cast votes for Henderson, Raines, Blyleven, McGwire and Trammell.
 
Bill Gilbert
12/27/08

 

Rating the Veterans Committee Candidates for the Hall of Fame 2009

 

Rating the Veterans Committee Candidates for the Hall of Fame
 
 
            On December 8, the results of the Veterans Committee voting for the Hall of Fame will be announced. There are two ballots, each with 10 names. One is for players who made their major league debuts in or after 1943 and the other is for players who made their major league debuts before 1943. All of the players on the second list are now deceased.
 
            The voters are different for each of the two groups.  For the post-1943 players, the voters are the 64 living Hall of Fame players and an election is held every two years. For the pre-1943 players, the voting is done by a panel of 12 Hall members and members of the media. Elections for this group are held every 5 years. Each participant in both elections can vote for up to four candidates allowing for a maximum of five selections. In each case, a player must receive votes on at least 75% of the ballots cast in order to be elected. 
 
            The rules state that those whose careers included involvement as managers/executives/ umpires will be considered for their overall contribution to the game.
 
            In an attempt to rate the players on both lists, Win Shares and OPS+ were used as measures of performance for position players and Win Shares and ERA+ were used for pitchers. The Win Shares system, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance – offense, defense and pitching. James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer”.
 
            OPS+ compares a players On Base Percentage plus Slugging Average (OPS), after some minor adjustments for context, against the league OPS for the years of his career. A player with an OPS+ of 130 has an adjusted OPS 30% better than the league average. ERA+ is a similar concept for pitchers. An ERA+ of 130 is 30% better than the league average.
 
            Win Shares basically measure the quantity of a player’s accomplishments while OPS+/ERA+ measure the quality of his performance.
 
            Here are the Win Shares and OPS+/ERA+ for the ten players on both lists ranked by Win Shares. These figures are then compared to examples of solid Hall of Famers (Willie McCovey, Bob Gibson) and borderline Hall of Famers (Jim Rice, Bert Blyleven).
 
 
Player (1943+) Win Shares OPS+/ERA+
Dick Allen 342 156
Ron Santo 324 123
Vada Pinson 321 110
Joe Torre 315 129
Al Oliver 305 122
Jim Kaat (P) 268 107
Gil Hodges 263 119
Luis Tiant (P) 256 114
Maury Wills 253 88
Tony Oliva 245 130
     
Examples
    
Willie McCovey 408 148
Bob Gibson (P)  317 127
Jim Rice 282 127
Bert Blyleven (P) 339 118
     
Player (Pre-1943) Win Shares OPS+/ERA+
Bill Dahlen 394 109
Sherry Magee 354 137
Mickey Vernon 296 116
Vern Stephens 265 118
Bucky Walters (P)  258 115
Carl Mays (P) 256 119
Joe Gordon 242 121
Wes Ferrell (P) 233 117
Deacon White 190 122
Allie Reynolds (P) 170 110
  
 
            The numbers above suggest that, while none of these players has an iron clad case for the Hall, Allen, Santo, Dahlen and Magee have numbers that provide credible credentials for Hall entry. Hodges and especially Torre can make respectable cases when their success as managers is taken into account. 
 
            Since these players have been passed over numerous times in previous elections, their chances of getting 75% of the voters to decide in their favor cannot be very high. My guess is that none will be elected this time with Santo and Hodges having the best chance.
 
Bill Gilbert
12/6/08

Who Were the Most Productive Offensive Players in 2008?

 

Who Were the Most Productive Offensive Players in 2008?
       
     By Bill Gilbert
 
      Numerous methods have been devised to measure offensive performance. The most common are batting average, on-base percentage and slugging average. Since none of these averages provides a complete picture by itself, a more comprehensive measure of offensive performance is useful. Such a measure would include the following elements:
 
1. The ability to get on base.
2. The ability to hit with power.
3. The ability to add value through baserunning.
 
      The first two elements are measured by on-base percentage and slugging average. A measure of offensive performance, which encompasses both as well as baserunning achievements, is Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA). This measure accounts for the net bases accumulated by a player per plate appearance. It is calculated as follows:
 
     BPA = (TB + BB + HB + SB – CS – GIDP) / (AB + BB + HB + SF)
 
     Where: BPA = Bases per Plate Appearance
            TB   = Total Bases
            BB   = Bases on Balls
            HB   = Hit by Pitch
            SB   = Stolen Bases
            CS   = Caught Stealing
            GIDP = Grounded into Double Plays
            AB   = At Bats
            SF   = Sacrifice Flies
 
The numerator accounts for all of the bases accumulated by a player, reduced by the number of times he is caught stealing or erases another runner by grounding into a double play. The denominator accounts for the plate appearances when the player is trying to generate bases for himself. Sacrifice hits are not included as plate appearances, since they represent the successful execution of the batter’s attempts to advance another runner.
 
      Major league BPA for the past fifteen years are shown below along with the number of players with BPA over .550 and .600:
 
Year  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
 BPA  .467 .463 .471 .463 .463 .479 .481 .468 .457 .461 .468 .456 .470 .463 .458
.550    38   37   41   34   41   50   50   46   39   42   33   34   46   34   41
.600    16   15   21   15   22   29   30   26   17   15   18   13   14   15   11
 
Offensive production peaked in 2000 before declining in the early years of this decade. BPA in 2008 was down slightly from 2007.
 
      In the 1990s, there were 14 individual .700 BPA seasons. In the nine year period from 2000 to 2008, there have been 18. The highest BPA in the 1990s was recorded by Mark McGwire in 1998 (.799). Barry Bonds shattered that with .907 in 2001, the highest figure ever recorded, topping Babe Ruth’s best two years (1920 and 1921).  Bonds followed that with .869 in 2002, .818 in 2003 and .882 in 2004. There were no hitters with a BPA of .700 in 2008 and the only player to make it in 2007 was Alex Rodriguez (.702). Surprisingly, Albert Pujols has not had a .700 BPA in his eight seasons. However, he was the leader in 2008 by a large margin with a BPA of .685, the first time he has finished on top.
 
 
 
      The .700 BPA seasons in 2000-2007 are listed below:
   
Player              Team           Year       BPA
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2001      .907
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2004      .882
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2002      .869
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2003      .818
Sammy Sosa          Chicago Cubs   2001      .758
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2000      .745
Jim Thome           Cleveland      2002      .728
Manny Ramirez       Cleveland      2000      .726
Todd Helton         Colorado       2000      .720
Luis Gonzalez       Arizona        2001      .713
Todd Helton         Colorado       2001      .709
Carlos Delgado      Toronto        2000      .707
Larry Walker        Colorado       2001      .707
Jason Giambi        Oakland        2000      .706
Travis Hafner       Cleveland      2006      .703
Alex Rodriguez      NY Yankees     2007      .702
Jason Giambi        Oakland        2001      .700
Ryan Howard         Philadelphia   2006      .700
 
The yearly leaders since 1992 are as follows:
 
1992 Bonds        .734  1993 Bonds     .740 1994 Bagwell  .768
1995 Belle        .692  1996 McGwire   .765 1997 Walker   .770
1998 McGwire      .799  1999 McGwire   .735 2000 Bonds    .745 
2001 Bonds        .907  2002 Bonds     .869 2003 Bonds    .818
2004 Bonds        .882  2005 D. Lee    .699 2006 Hafner   .703
2007 A. Rodriguez .702  2008 Pujols    .685
 
 
      The benchmark for an outstanding individual season is .600. Following is a list of 11 players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and with a BPA of .600 in 2008.
 
Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA) of .600+ in 2008
————————————————- 
                                No. of
                 2007   2008     .600+
   Player         BPA    BPA LG Seasons Comments         
 1 Pujols, A.    .583   .685   N    6    Clearly the top offensive player.
 2 Ramirez, M.   .518   .636 A/N   11    New life on the West Coast.    
 3 Berkman, L.   .570   .633   N    5    Back on list after an off-year.
 4 Ramirez, H.   .634   .629   N    2    Emerging superstar
 5 Jones, C.     .629   .625   N    4    Still one of the best.
 6 Holliday, M.  .621   .624   N    2    Solid production, especially at Coors.
 7 Rodriguez, A, .702   .623   A   10    Not up to his usual standard.
 8 Bradley, M.   .493   .617   A    1    Misses a lot of games.
 9 Ludwick, R.   .530   .615   N    1    Can he do it again?
10 Quentin, C.   .397   .612   A    1    Carried the White Sox for months.
11 Sizemore, G.  .572   .611   A    2    Can do it all.
 
  
      The only repeaters from last year’s list are Hanley Ramirez, Jones, Holliday and Rodriguez. Eleven other players had a BPA over .600 in 2007 but fell short in 2008. Most of these players had strong seasons in 2008 but not up to their exceptional performance in 2007.
 
 
                                 No. of
                 2007   2008     .600+
   Player         BPA   BPA LG Seasons Comments            
 1 Pena, C.      .678   .567   A    1    Didn’t quite repeat 2007 career year.
 2 Ortiz, D.     .663   .555   A    5    Held back by injured wrist.
 3 Fielder, P.   .659   .552   N    1    Slow start held him back.
 4 Howard, R.    .631   .577   N    2    Came on strong in September.
 5 Wright, D.    .626   .581   N    1    Didn’t quite match big year in 2007.
 6 Granderson, C..621   .554   A    1    Good but not great.
 7 Thome, J.     .621   .550   A   12    In gradual decline.
 8 Dunn, A.      .617   .596 N/A    3    Consistent year-to-year.
 9 Utley, C.     .614   .593   N    1    Does everything well.
10 Ordonez, M.   .612   .485   A    2    Big drop-off from strong 2007 season.
11 Teixeira, M.  .609   .593 N/A    3    Consistently productive.
 
 
      Five players who had a BPA over .600 and qualified for the batting title in 2008 also have a career BPA over .600. These are the top offensive players in the major leagues who are currently performing at a peak level.
 
                             2008     Career
Player             Age       BPA        BPA    Comments.
————        —       —-       —-   ——–
Albert Pujols        28      .685       .646    One of the best RH hitters ever.
Alex Rodriguez       32      .623       .628    One of the best RH hitters ever.
Manny Ramirez        36      .636       .622    One of the best RH hitters ever.
Lance Berkman        32      .633       .616    Among the best switch hitters.  
Hanley Ramirez       24      .629       .609    Building solid credentials.
 
 
 
Another list of interest is one containing the names of players with a BPA of over .600 in 2008 who, for one reason or another, did not have enough plate appearances (PA) to qualify for the batting title. There are 5 players on this list in 2008 with 100 or more plate appearances.
 
                                  
Player          Age  BPA   PA    Comments
————— —  —- —    —————————
Chris Dickerson  26 .686  122    Late season call-up by Cincinnati
Nelson Cruz      27 .669  133    Also had big minor league season.
Rafael Furcal    30 .640  164    Missed most of season with bad back.
Russell Branyan  32 .638  152    Played very well before getting hurt.
Mike Napoli      26 .637  274    Exceptional power for a catcher.
 
 
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, nine players who earned enough playing time to qualify for the batting title had a BPA less than .400 in 2008. As usual most are middle infielders and catchers.  
 
Player               BPA      Comments
—————–   —-      ——————————
Jason Kendall       .396      Only repeater on this list.
Kurt Suzuki         .392      Second catcher on the list.
Miguel Tejada       .391      Set NL record for GIDP in 2008.
Edgar Renteria      .391      Can’t seem to hit in American League
Jeff Francoeur      .376      Only outfielder on this list.
Bobby Crosby        .375      Last 3 seasons at same level.
Freddy Sanchez      .370      Very disappointing season
Yuniesky Betancourt .368      Doesn’t get on base enough.
Jeff Keppinger      .361      Didn’t produce as a full-time player.
 
The following six players compiled a batting average over .300, an on-base average over .400, a slugging percentage over .500 and bases per plate appearance over .600 in 2008:
 
Player (2008)        BAVG       OBA       SLG       BPA
Albert Pujols        .357      .462      .653      .685
Manny Ramirez        .332      .430      .601      .636
Lance Berkman        .312      .420      .567      .633
Hanley Ramirez       .301      .400      .540      .629
Chipper Jones        .364      .470      .574      .625
Matt Holliday        .321      .409      .538      .624
Milton Bradley       .321      .436      .563      .617
 
      Five active players have these numbers for their careers, although Helton and Thomas fell far short in 2008:
 
Player (Career)      BAVG       OBA       SLG       BPA
Albert Pujols        .334      .425      .624      .646
Manny Ramirez        .314      .411      .593      .622
Lance Berkman        .302      .413      .560      .616
Todd Helton          .328      .428      .574      .615              
Frank Thomas         .301      .419      .555      .604
 
           
 
 
Bill Gilbert
11/11/08

Triple Milestones – 2008

 

Triple Milestones – 2008
 
By Bill Gilbert
 
      Offensive production in the major leagues continued to decline in 2008. The home run rate of 2.01 per game was the lowest since 1993. All offensive categories were down in 2008 and are significantly below the peak year of 2000 as illustrated in the following table:
 
Year      Runs/Game HR/Game BAVG  OBA    SLG    OPS      Triple Milestone Hitters
—- ——— ——- —-   —-   —-  —     ————————
1990     8.51     1.58   .258 .324   .386   .710              2
1991     8.62     1.61   .255 .323   .384   .707              3
1992     8.23     1.44   .256 .322   .377   .699              2
1993     9.20     1.78   .266 .332   .404   .736              5
1994     9.85     2.07   .270 .339   .424   .763              3
1995     9.69     2.02   .267 .338   .417   .755              8
1996    10.07     2.19   .270 .340   .427   .767             21
1997     9.53     2.05   .267 .337   .419   .756              7
1998     9.58     2.08   .266 .335   .420   .755             14
1999    10.17     2.28   .271 .345   .434   .779             19
2000    10.28     2.34   .271 .345   .437   .782             26
2001     9.55     2.25   .264 .332   .427   .759             21
2002     9.24     2.09   .261 .331   .417   .748             12
2003     9.46     2.14   .264 .332   .422   .754              8
2004     9.63     2.25   .266 .335   .428   .763             12
2005     9.18     2.06   .265 .330   .419   .749             10
2006     9.72     2.22   .269 .336   .432   .768             13
2007     9.59     2.04   .268 .336   .423   .759              8 
2008     9.30     2.01   .264 .333   .417   .750              7
 
 
      No players hit 50 home runs in 2008 and only 2 hit 40 (Ryan Howard 46 and Adam Dunn 40). In 2007, two players reached the 50 HR mark and 5 hit 40. In 2006, 13 players reached the 40 level. The 30 home run level was reached by 28 players in 2008 compared to 26 in 2007 and 34 in 2006. 
 
      A useful indicator for tracking offense is the number of players who hit for both power and average by achieving a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 runs batted in. A record 26 players reached all three milestones in 2000, but that figure has dropped significantly in recent years. Seven players reached all three milestones in 2008, down from 8 in 2007 and 13 in 2006. Four players made it in both 2007 and 2008, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and David Wright.
 
Four American League players achieved all three milestones in 2008 while three National League Players made it. Albert Pujols became the only player to do it in his first 8 seasons. The only newcomer to the .300-30-100 club in 2008 was Josh Hamilton who became the 161st player to register a .300-30-100 season starting with Babe Ruth in 1920.
 
      Following is a listing of players who achieved triple milestones
in 2008:
 
Player           Times BAVG-HR-RBI       Comments
American
Alex Rodriguez     8    .302-35-103 Not one of his best years.
Mark Teixeira      3    .308-33-121 Combined record in NL and AL.
Aubrey Huff        2    .304-32-108 Came in under the radar.     
Josh Hamilton      1    .304-32-130 Great comeback story.
 
 
 
Player           Times BAVG-HR-RBI       Comments
National
Manny Ramirez     10    .332-37-121 Back after missing in 2007.
Albert Pujols      8    .357-37-116 Eight straight years.
David Wright       2    .302-33-124 May be starting a long string.
 
      Four players achieved triple milestones in 2007 but fell short in 2008:
 
Player           Times    BAVG-HR-RBI    BAVG-HR-RBI    
                 In Past      2007           2008     Comments
David Ortiz        3     .332-35-117    .264-23- 89 Injured wrist.
Miguel Cabrera     2     .320-34-119    .292-37-127 BAVG down.
Matt Holliday      2     .340-36-137    .321-25- 88 Lost power stroke.
Carlos Lee         2     .303-32-119    .314-28-100 Missed 66 games.
 
      Three players came within one swing of the bat of reaching triple milestones.
 
Kevin Youkilis          .312-29-115      Needed another homer.
Lance Berkman           .312-29-106      Hit only 2 homers in September.
Ryan Ludwick            .299-37-113      Needed another hit.
  
      A growing list contains the names of players, active in 2008, who have had multiple .300-30-100 seasons in the past but have not done it in the last three years. Many have been limited by injuries. Some are still very productive players but not at the same level they were in their peak years. Since this list was started in 2004, not one player has come back with another .300-30-100 season.
 
                                 Last
                .300-30-100  .300-30-100 
Player            Seasons      Season       2008     Comments 
Frank Thomas         7           2000    .240- 8- 30  End of the line.
Gary Sheffield       6           2003    .225-19- 57  Injuries have taken toll.
Todd Helton          5           2003    .264- 7- 29 Bad back ruined season.
Chipper Jones        5           2001    .364-22- 75 Misses too much time.
Jason Giambi         4           2002    .247-32- 96 Still has power.
Magglio Ordonez      4           2002    .317-21-103 Still productive. 
Ken Griffey, Jr.     3           1997    .249-18- 71 Winding down HOF career.   
Carlos Delgado       3           2005    .271-38-115 Strong second half.
Moises Alou          2           2000    .347- 0- 9  Body breaking down.
Brian Giles          2           2000    .306-12- 63 Lost power stroke.
Luis Gonzalez        2           2001    .261- 8- 47 Just hanging on.
Jim Thome            2           2002    .245-34- 90 Strikes out, walks or homers.
Jeff Kent            2           2002    .280-12- 59 No longer a regular.
Aramis Ramirez       2           2004    .289-27-111 Usually comes close.
Miguel Tejada        2           2004    .283-13- 66 Decline accelerates.
 
      In his 1988 Baseball Abstract, Bill James referred to triple
milestone seasons as "Hall of Fame Seasons". This was because all of the
eligible players with 5 or more triple milestone seasons had been
elected to the Hall of Fame. This correlation has continued to hold but is likely to break down when Juan Gonzalez becomes eligible in 2011.
 
            No teams had two players with triple milestones in 2008. Twenty seven of the thirty major league teams have had at least one triple milestone hitter in the decade beginning with the year 2000. Of the three teams that haven’t, Cincinnati has the longest dry spell. Their last triple milestone hitter was George Foster in 1977. The others and the last player to do it are Kansas City (Danny Tartabull – 1991) and Milwaukee (John Jaha – 1996).    
 
 
     
      Three minor league players recorded triple milestone seasons in 2008. All three finished the season in the major leagues, two with the Texas Rangers.
 
Player            Team (Level)     Organization     Age   BAVG-HR-RBI  
 
Nelson Cruz       Oklahoma (AAA)    Texas            27   .342-37- 99
                  Texas (AL)                              .330- 7- 26            
                                                          .339-44-125
 
Chris Davis       Frisco (AA)       Texas            22   .333-13- 42
                  Oklahoma (AAA)                          .333-10- 31
                  Texas                                   .285-17- 55
                                                          .309-40-128
 
Kila Ka’aihue     NW Arkansas (AA)  Florida          24   .312-26- 78
                  Omaha (AAA)                             .316-11- 21
                  Kansas City (AL)                        .286- 1- 1
                                                          .312-38-100
 
      Four others came close:
 
Joe Koshansky     Colo. Springs (AAA)Colorado        26   .300-31-121
                  Colorado (NL)                           .211- 3- 8
                                                          .293-34-129
 
      Koshansky had minor league triple milestones but his overall batting average fell under .300 with his major league at-bats.
 
 
 
Scott McClain     Fresno (AAA) San Francisco        36    .300-29-108
                  San Francisco (NL)                      .273- 2- 7
                                                          .298-31-115
 
      McClain fell one home run short in the minor leagues. He added 2 homers in the majors but his overall batting average fell below .300.
 
 
 
Lou Montanez      Bowie (AA)        Baltimore       26      .335-26- 97
                  Baltimore (AL)                            .295- 3- 14
                                                            .327-29-111
 
      Montanez fell short by one swing of the bat.
 
 
 
Brian Dopirak     Dunedin           Toronto         24      .308-27- 88
                  New Hampshire (AA)                        .287- 2- 13
                                                            .304-29-101
 
      Dopirak, who had triple milestones in 2004 in the Cubs system, also fell short by one swing of the bat.
 
 
      A player from the Independent Leagues also achieved triple milestones in 2008 and another one came close.
 
Josh Pressley      Somerset (Atl)                   28      .354-30-101
 
      Pressley played 9 seasons in affiliated ball in 6 different organizations.
 
 
Carl Everett      Long Island (Atl)                 37      .327-29-100
 
      Everett had a 14-year major league career including a triple milestone season with Boston in 2000.
 
 
      No college players achieved triple milestones in 2008                                                
 
      Pitchers also strive for triple milestones – 20 wins, 200 strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00. Esteban Loaiza was the only pitcher to do it in 2003 (21-9, 207, 2.90). Johan Santana (20-6, 265, 2.61) did it in 2004 and Chris Carpenter (21-5, 213, 2.83) was the only one to do it in 2005. None made it in 2006. In 2007, Jake Peavy led the NL in all three categories (19-6, 240, 2.54) but fell one victory short when he failed to win the playoff game for the NL wild card. In 2008, Roy Halladay of Toronto broke through with a triple milestone season (20-11, 206, 2.78)
 
10/13/08