Category: Papers

Who Were the Most Productive Offensive Players in 2010?

 

Who Were the Most Productive Offensive Players in 2010?
       
     By Bill Gilbert
 
      Numerous methods have been devised to measure offensive performance. The most common are batting average, on-base percentage and slugging average. Since none of these averages provides a complete picture by itself, a more comprehensive measure of offensive performance is useful. Such a measure would include the following elements:
 
1. The ability to get on base.
2. The ability to hit with power.
3. The ability to add value through baserunning.
 
      The first two elements are measured by on-base percentage and slugging average. A measure of offensive performance, which encompasses both as well as baserunning achievements, is Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA). This measure accounts for the net bases accumulated by a player per plate appearance. It is calculated as follows:
 
     BPA = (TB + BB + HB + SB – CS – GIDP) / (AB + BB + HB + SF)
 
     Where: BPA = Bases per Plate Appearance
            TB   = Total Bases
            BB   = Bases on Balls
            HB   = Hit by Pitch
            SB   = Stolen Bases
            CS   = Caught Stealing
            GIDP = Grounded into Double Plays
            AB   = At Bats
            SF   = Sacrifice Flies
 
The numerator accounts for all of the bases accumulated by a player, reduced by the number of times he is caught stealing or erases another runner by grounding into a double play. The denominator accounts for the plate appearances when the player is trying to generate bases for himself. Sacrifice hits are not included as plate appearances, since they represent the successful execution of the batter’s attempts to advance another runner.
 
      Major league BPA for the past fifteen years are shown below along with the number of players with BPA over .550 and .600:
 
Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
 BPA .471 .463 .463 .479 .481 .468 .457 .461 .468 .456 .470 .463 .458 .461 .446
.550   41   34   41   50   50   46   39  42   33   34   46   34   41   42   19
.600   21   15   22   29   30   26   17  15   18   13   14   15   11   16    7
 
Offensive production peaked in 2000 before declining in the early years of this decade. BPA in 2010 was down sharply from 2009, representing a 3.7% decline in offensive production, and a 7.3% reduction from the peak in 2000.  
 
      In the 1990s, there were 14 individual .700 BPA seasons. In the ten year period from 2000 to 2009, there were 18. The highest BPA in the 1990s was recorded by Mark McGwire in 1998 (.799). Barry Bonds shattered that with .907 in 2001, the highest figure ever recorded, topping Babe Ruth’s best two years (1920 and 1921).  Bonds followed that with .869 in 2002, .818 in 2003 and .882 in 2004. There have not been any hitters with a BPA of .700 in 2008, 2009 and 2010. The last player to make it was Alex Rodriguez (.702) in 2007. Surprisingly, Albert Pujols has not had a .700 BPA in his ten seasons. However, he was the major league leader in 2009 by a large margin with a BPA of .696, the highest figure of his career, and the second time he has finished on top.
 
 
 
      The .700 BPA seasons in 2000-2010 are listed below:
   
Player              Team           Year       BPA
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2001      .907
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2004      .882
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2002      .869
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2003      .818
Sammy Sosa          Chicago Cubs   2001      .758
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2000      .745
Jim Thome           Cleveland      2002      .728
Manny Ramirez       Cleveland      2000      .726
Todd Helton         Colorado       2000      .720
Luis Gonzalez       Arizona        2001      .713
Todd Helton         Colorado       2001      .709
Carlos Delgado      Toronto        2000      .707
Larry Walker        Colorado       2001      .707
Jason Giambi        Oakland        2000      .706
Travis Hafner       Cleveland      2006      .703
Alex Rodriguez      NY Yankees     2007      .702
Jason Giambi        Oakland        2001      .700
Ryan Howard         Philadelphia   2006      .700
 
The yearly leaders since 1992 are as follows:
 
1992 Bonds        .734 1993 Bonds     .740 1994 Bagwell  .768
1995 Belle        .692 1996 McGwire   .765 1997 Walker   .770
1998 McGwire      .799 1999 McGwire   .735 2000 Bonds    .745 
2001 Bonds       . 907 2002 Bonds     .869 2003 Bonds    .818
2004 Bonds        .882 2005 D. Lee    .699 2006 Hafner   .703
2007 A. Rodriguez .702 2008 Pujols    .685 2009 Pujols   .696
2010 Bautista     .671
 
      The benchmark for an outstanding individual season is .600. Following is a list of 7 players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and with a BPA of .600 in 2010.
 
Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA) of .600+ in 2010
————————————————- 
                                No. of
                 2010   2009     .600+
   Player         BPA    BPA LG Seasons Comments          
 1 Bautista, J   .671   .482   A    1    The big surprise of the season.
 2 Votto, J.     .657   .617   N    2    Some competition for Pujols.    
 3 Hamilton, J.  .653   .460   A    1    Needs to stay healthy.
 4 Cabrera, M.   .642   .568   A    2    Best year so far.
 5 Pujols, A.    .634   .696   N    8    A little below par.
 6 Gonzalez, C.  .632   .596   N    1    Emerging superstar.
 7 Konerko, P.   .613   .517   A    1    Career year at age 34.
 
      The only repeaters from last year’s list are Pujols and Votto. Fourteen other players had a BPA over .600 in 2009 but fell short in 2010. Most of these players fell off sharply in either power or average after strong seasons in 2009.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                   No. of
                   2010   2009     .600+
   Player           BPA   BPA LG Seasons Comments            
 1 Fielder, P.     .555   .640   N    2    Power and average way down.
 2 Mauer, J.       .488   .619   A    1    Only 9 HR vs. 28 in 2009.
 3 Zobrist, B.     .458   .617   A    1    2009 looks like a fluke.
 4 Lee, D.         .454   .611   N    2    Has a history of ups and downs.
 5 Utley, C.       .542   .611   N    2    HR dropped from 31 to 16.
 6 Howard, R.      .534   .610   N    3    Power way off in 2010.
 7 Bay, J.         .479   .610   N    2    Loss of power and injury took toll.
 8 Youkilis, K.    .623   .609   A    1    Not enough PA to qualify.
 9 Reynolds, M.    .508   .607   N    1    BAVG of .198 won’t cut it.
10 Rodriguez, A.   .538   .604   A   11    Four straight years under .290 BAVG.
11 Ramirez, H.     .544   .604   N    3    May have peaked in 2009.
12 Pena, C.        .503   .604   A    2    BAVG of .196 was a killer.
13 Braun, R.       .535   .603   N    1    First year under 30 HR.
14 Teixeira, M.    .532   .603   A    4    Lowest BAVG (.256) of career.
 
      Seven players have a BPA over .600 for their careers:
 
                             2010      Career
Player             Age       BPA        BPA    Comments.
————        —       —-       —-   ——–
Albert Pujols       30      .634       .650    Consistently great.
Alex Rodriguez      34      .538       .622    Tailing off.
Jim Thome           39      .668       .618    Amazing year.
Manny Ramirez       38      .525       .618    Winding down.
Ryan Howard         30      .534       .609    Surprising drop.
Joey Votto          26      .657       .607    Looks like the real deal.    
Lance Berkman       34      .472       .603    Serious decline in 2010.
 
Another list of interest is one containing the names of players with a BPA of over .600 in 2010 who did not have enough plate appearances (PA) to qualify for the batting title. These four players were very productive when they played but missed significant time due to injury or other reasons.
                                  
Player          Age  BPA   PA    Comments
————— —   —- —   —————————
Jim Thome        39  .668 340   Provided big boost for Twins.
Justin Morneau   29  .652 348   Derailed by concussion 
Kevin Youkilis   31  .623 435   Produced when healthy.  
Nelson Cruz      29  .608 445   Slowed by repeated hamstring problems.
 
 
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, sixteen players who earned enough playing time to qualify for the batting title had a BPA less than .400 in 2010. This list is getting longer every year. As usual most are middle infielders and catchers.  
 
Player               BPA      Comments
—————–   —-      ——————————
Miguel Tejada       .396      Slow decline continues.
Chone Figgins       .393      Big disappointment in Seattle.                 
Elvis Andrus        .391      Held back by lack of power.
Kevin Kouzmanoff    .391      First year below .400.
Erick Aybar         .389      Big drop from strong 2009.
Skip Schumaker      .385      Disappointing season.
Orlando Cabrera     .380      Slowly declining.
Kurt Suzuki         .377      Worst year of 4-year career.
A. J. Pierzynski    .376      A little below his norm.
Yadier Molina       .372      Carried by his defense.
Alberto Callaspo    .370      Only .317 after trade to Angels.
Alcides Escobar     .369      Big time sophomore slump.
Yunel Escobar       .367      Are these guys the same player?
Ryan Theriot        .357      Flopped after trade to Dodgers.
Jose Lopez          .334      Way below career norm.
Cesar Izturis       .302      Career BPA of .355.
 
 
The following four players compiled a batting average over .300, an on-base average over .400, a slugging percentage over .500 and bases per plate appearance over .600 in 2010:
 
Player (2010)        BAVG       OBA       SLG       BPA       OPS
Josh Hamilton        .359      .411      .633      .653     1.044
Miguel Cabrera       .328      .420      .622      .642     1.042
Joey Votto           .324      .424      .600      .657     1.024
Albert Pujols        .312      .414      .596      .634     1.011
 
      Two active players have these numbers for their careers, although Manny Ramirez fell short in 2010:
 
Player (Career)      BAVG       OBA       SLG       BPA        OPS
Albert Pujols        .331      .426      .624      .650      1.050
Manny Ramirez        .313      .411      .586      .618       .998
 
Bill Gilbert
12/4/10
 
 

Triple Milestones – 2010

 

Triple Milestones – 2010
 
By Bill Gilbert
 
      Offensive production in the major leagues in 2010 was down significantly from 2009. The number of runs per game has declined each year from 9.72 in 2006 to 8.77 in 2010. The home run rate of 1.90 per game was down from the 2.02 rate in 2009. The major league batting average, on-base percentage and slugging average were all the lowest since 1992. All offensive categories are significantly below the peak year of 2000 as illustrated in the following table:
 
Year Runs/Game HR/Game   BAVG  OBA    SLG   OPS     Triple Milestone Hitters
—- ——— ——-   —-  —-   —-  —     ————————
1990     8.51     1.58   .258 .324   .386   .710                 2
1991     8.62     1.61   .255 .323   .384   .707                 3
1992     8.23     1.44   .256 .322   .377   .699                 2
1993     9.20     1.78   .266 .332   .404   .736                 5
1994     9.85     2.07   .270 .339   .424   .763                 3
1995     9.69     2.02   .267 .338   .417   .755                 8
1996    10.07     2.19   .270 .340   .427   .767                21
1997     9.53     2.05   .267 .337   .419   .756                 7
1998     9.58     2.08   .266 .335   .420   .755                14
1999    10.17     2.28   .271 .345   .434   .779                19
2000    10.28     2.34   .271 .345   .437   .782                26
2001     9.55     2.25   .264 .332   .427   .759                21
2002     9.24     2.09   .261 .331   .417   .748                12
2003     9.46     2.14   .264 .332   .422   .754                 8
2004     9.63     2.25   .266 .335   .428   .763                12
2005     9.18     2.06   .265 .330   .419   .749                10
2006     9.72     2.22   .269 .336   .432   .768                13
2007     9.59     2.04   .268 .336   .423   .759                 8 
2008     9.30     2.01   .264 .333   .417   .750                 7
2009     9.23     2.02   .262 .333   .418   .751                 6
2010     8.77     1.90   .257 .325   .403   .728                 6
 
      Jose Bautista of Toronto hit 54 home runs, the first player to reach 50 since Alex Rodriguez in 2007. Two players hit 40 or more home runs in 2010 compared to five in 2009. The 30 home run level was reached by 18 players in 2010 compared to 30 in 2009. 
 
      A useful indicator for tracking offense is the number of players who hit for both power and average by achieving a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 runs batted in. A record 26 players reached all three milestones in 2000, but that figure has dropped significantly in recent years. Only six players reached all three milestones in 2010, the same as in 2009.  Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera were the only players who made it in both 2009 and 2010.
 
      The remarkable career of Albert Pujols merits further attention. He has now played exactly 10 full seasons in the major leagues, establishing his Hall of Fame credentials. In each season, he has batted over .300 with over 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. Only Babe Ruth (12) has more such seasons and his best was eight in a row. An average season for Pujols is .331-41-123. Surprisingly, he has led the National League in batting only once, in home runs twice and once in RBIs.    
 
Three players from each league achieved all three milestones in 2010. Pujols became the only player to do it in his first 10 seasons. There were two newcomers to the .300-30-100 club in 2010, Joey Votto and Carlos Gonzalez, bringing the total to 166 players who have registered at least one .300-30-100 season starting with Babe Ruth in 1920.
 
      Following is a listing of players who achieved triple milestones
in 2010:
 
Player           Times  BAVG-HR-RBI        Comments
National
Albert Pujols     10    .312-42-118 One of the all-time greats.
Joey Votto         1    .324-37-113 Strong contender for MVP.
Carlos Gonzalez    1    .336-34-117 An emerging superstar.
 
Player           Times  BAVG-HR-RBI        Comments
American
Miguel Cabrera     4    .328-38-126 New high in home runs.
Josh Hamilton      2    .359-32-100 Three RBIs in last weekend.
Paul Konerko       2    .312-39-111 Consistent all year.
 
      Four players achieved triple milestones in 2009 but fell short in 2010:
 
Player           Times    BAVG-HR-RBI    BAVG-HR-RBI    
                 In Past      2009           2010     Comments
Derrek Lee         2     .306-35-111    .260-19- 80 Couldn’t get untracked.
Ryan Braun         3     .320-32-114    .304-25-103 Power down.
Kendry Morales     2     .306-34-108    .290-11- 39 Season wrecked by injury.
Adam Lind          2     .305-35-114    .237-23- 72 Couldn’t overcome slow start.
 
 
      The biggest obstacle in reaching triple milestones in 2010 was batting average. Nine players had 30 home runs and 100 RBIs in 2010 but fell short of a .300 batting average.
 
Adrian Gonzalez          .298-31-101      Just missed.
Dan Uggla                .287-33-105      New highs in all three categories  
Corey Hart               .283-31-102      New highs in HR and RBI.           
Ryan Howard              .276-31-108      Well below his norms.
David Ortiz              .270-32-102      Came on strong after slow start.
Alex Rodriguez           .270-30-125      Is he starting a decline?
Jose Bautista            .260-54-124      The year’s big surprise.
Adam Dunn                .260-38-103      Typical Dunn year.
Mark Teixeira            .256-33-108      Another slow start.
 
      Four other players came close to triple milestones in 2010, just missing on home runs.
 
Robinson Cano            .319-29-109      Would have been first time.
Vladimir Guererro        .300-29-115      Has done it 8 times.
Matt Holliday            .312-28-103     Did it in 2006-2007.
Adrian Beltre            .321-28-102     Did it with Dodgers in 2004.
 
      A growing list contains the names of players, active in 2010, who have had multiple .300-30-100 seasons in the past but have not done it in the last three years. Many have been limited by injuries. Some are still very productive players but not at the same level they were in their peak years. Since this list was started in 2004, not one player has come back with another .300-30-100 season.
 
                                 Last
                .300-30-100  .300-30-100 
Player            Seasons      Season       2010     Comments 
Vladimir Guerrero    8           2006    .300-29-115 Comeback year fell just short.
Todd Helton          5           2003    .256- 8- 37 In serious decline.
Chipper Jones        5           2001    .265-10- 46 Has become injury prone.
Jason Giambi         4           2002    .244- 6- 35 Strictly a bench player now.
Magglio Ordonez      4           2002    .303-12- 59 Season cut short by injury. 
Ken Griffey, Jr.     3           1997    .184- 0-  7 Two generations are now gone.   
Lance Berkman        3           2006    .248-14- 58 Bat has slowed down.
David Ortiz          3           2007    .270-32-102 Still has power.
Jim Thome            2           2002    .283-25- 59 Still a useful player.
Aramis Ramirez       2           2004    .241-25- 83 Can’t stay healthy.
Miguel Tejada        2           2004    .269 15- 71 Gradual decline continues.
Travis Hafner        2           2006    .278-13- 50 Can’t play every day.
Vernon Wells         2           2006    .273-31- 88 Somewhat of a comeback.
Matt Holliday        2           2007    .312-28-103 Made it only with Rockies.
 
      In his 1988 Baseball Abstract, Bill James referred to triple
milestone seasons as "Hall of Fame Seasons". This was because all of the
eligible players with 5 or more triple milestone seasons had been
elected to the Hall of Fame. This correlation has continued to hold but is likely to break down when Juan Gonzalez becomes eligible in 2011.
 
            No teams had two players with triple milestones in 2009. With Joey Votto of the Reds making the list, twenty nine of the thirty major league teams have now had at least one triple milestone hitter since the year 2000. Kansas City has not had a triple milestone hitter since Danny Tartabull in 1991.    
 
 
      Minor league players also recorded triple milestone seasons in 2010. 
 
Player            Team (Level)      Organization     Age   BAVG-HR-RBI  
 
Rich Poythress    High Desert (HiA) Seattle          22   .315-31-129
          
Paul Goldschmidt Visalia (HiA)      Arizona          22   .314-35-108
 
 
      Another had Triple Milestone Stats in the minors but not overall.
 
Mark Trumbo       Salt Lake City (AAA) Los Angeles   24   .301-36-122
                  Los Angeles (AL)                        .067- 0-  2
                                                          .294-36-124
      Another came very close.
 
Clint Robinson    NW Arkansas (AA) Kansas City       24   .335-29- 98
     
     
      No college players achieved triple milestones in 2009                                           
 
 
      Pitchers also strive for triple milestones – 20 wins, 200 strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00. No pitchers made it in 2009. However, in 2010, the year of the pitcher, two pitchers made it, Adam Wainwright (20-11, 213, 2.42) and Roy Halladay (21-10, 219, 2.44). Halladay made it in 2008 and Wainwright just missed in 2009.
 
 
TRIP2010.DOC
11/5/10

Edited to correct the number of times Albert Pujols has led the National League in RBIs.  11/7/10.

Astros Begin Reloading in 2010 Season

 

Astros Begin Reloading in 2010 Season               
 
By Bill Gilbert
 
 
            After a miserable start to the 2010 season, the Houston Astros made a mid-course correction in July. Astro icons Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman were traded for 6 younger players and the Club made a modest recovery in the second half of the season with rookies manning four positions in most games. Catcher Jason Castro and third baseman Chris Johnson were recalled from the minor leagues, first baseman Chris Wallace was acquired as an add-on to the Oswalt trade and shortstop, Angel Sanchez was obtained in a trade with the Red Sox to share the shortstop job with fellow rookie Tommy Manzella. 
 
After losing 5-2 to the Giants on opening night to start an 8-game losing streak, the Astros never reached .500 and dropped as much as 19 games below on July 4. Two and a half months later, the team improved to a mark of 73-77 on September 20 before faltering on a 10-day road trip to finish at 76-86, two games ahead of last year. The Club spent most of September in 3rd place ahead of the Brewers but needed a shutout of the Cubs on the final game of the season to finish a game ahead of the Cubs in 4th place. The Astros compiled a record of 40-33 after the All-Star break.
 
            The biggest problem the team faced was a lack of offensive production, particularly early in the season from the three hitters in the middle of the lineup, Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence. Pence and Lee improved in the second half as Pence hit 25 home runs for the third straight year and led the team with 91 RBIs. Lee was close behind with 24 home runs and 89 RBIs but his .246 batting average was far below his career average of .291. Berkman had only 13 home runs and a .245 batting average before his trade on July 30. The team finished last in the National League in home runs and the only other Astro player in double figures was rookie Chris Johnson with 11 in a little over half of the season.
 
            The team scored an average of 3.77 runs per game, far below the league average of 4.33. The Club allowed opposing teams 4.50 runs per game. With figures like this, a team would be expected to win about 66 rather than 76 games. Thus, it can be concluded that the team may not be as good as the record indicated. Compounding the lack of power is a deficiency in getting on base. The Astros finished last in the National League in both on-base percentage (.303 vs. league average of .324) and slugging percentage (.362 vs. league average of .399). They were also last in the major leagues in walks and next to last in runs.
 
            Pence and Lee are the only established power hitters on the team. To overcome the power deficiency, newcomers Johnson, Wallace and Castro must provide about 20-25 home runs apiece if the Astros are to be competitive since little power can be expected from the second base, shortstop and center field positions.
 
            There were a few offensive bright spots for the Astros in 2010. Johnson batted .308, the highest figure among National League rookies. Second baseman Jeff Keppinger batted .288 and was the hardest player in the league to strike out. Michael Bourn led the league in stolen bases with 52 and again played gold glove-caliber defense in center field.  And who can forget the unlikely 4-game sweep of the Phillies in Philadelphia in August.
 
            Turning to pitching, the Astros were in the middle of the pack with an ERA of 4.09 vs. the league average of 4.02. After the departure of Oswalt, Brett Myers was the staff ace with a 14-9 record and an ERA of 3.14. He pitched 6 or more innings in his first 32 starts before getting hit hard in his final start of the season and being removed after 5 2/3 innings. Wandy Rodriguez, after a very slow start, was the only other pitcher with more than 10 wins with a record of 11-12 and an ERA of 3.60. The bullpen was reasonably effective and produced two pitchers with 20+ saves in Matt Lindstrom (23) and Brandon Lyon (20). It was only the 5th time that a team had two pitchers with 20 saves.
 
            Looking forward, the Astros resurgence in the second half of the season provides some hope for 2011. Manager Brad Mills and his staff are providing the type of leadership and stability the team needs. The starting pitching was generally strong in the second half with the emergence of J.A. Happ, obtained in the Oswalt trade, the continued development of Bud Norris and the surprising success of Nelson Figueroa. The bullpen was strengthened by the addition of Wilton Lopez, Fernando Abad and Mark Melancon.  However, on the offensive side, the lack of power and on-base skills must be addressed if the team is to be a contender.
 
10/6/10

SABR 40 Wrap-up

 

            By all accounts, SABR 40 in Atlanta was a big success although registration was below the total in recent years. I know I sure had a good time.
 
            SABR is clearly in a time of transition. Executive Director John Zajc is resigning to pursue other interests. His replacement is Marc Appleman who has had an extensive and varied career in communications related to sports, particularly baseball. John received numerous, well-deserved accolades at the convention and will be staying on until the end of September to ease the transition. Mark was present for the entire convention and made a very favorable impression.
 
            There was a great deal of discussion at the Annual Business Meeting about SABR’s demographics. Ten years ago, the average age of SABR members was 49. Now it is 59. Obviously, SABR is not attracting many younger members. This was discussed in some depth at a special, open meeting Thursday night and will be a high priority item for the Board and the new Executive Director. They are looking for ideas for attracting and retaining new members.
 
            Probably the highlight of the convention was the Worst to First panel featuring Atlanta Braves Bobby Cox, Phil Niekro, Mark Lemke and Ron Gant. It centered on the rise of the Braves from last in 1990 to first in 1991 and what it took to keep them at the top. Former Braves broadcaster, Pete Van Wieren, did an excellent job as the moderator. Braves President John Schuerholz was the speaker at the Awards Luncheon and was very well received.
 
            Other highlights included a Black Sox panel featuring retired sportswriter, Furman Bisher and several authors and attorneys who had done research on the case. The consensus was that, while Jackson did not return the money ($1,000) that Lefty Williams left in his room, he did not do anything to throw any games.
 
            Another highlight was a one-man play featuring Norm Coleman as Ty Cobb, which was very entertaining.
 
            As always there were some outstanding oral (41) and poster (14) presentations including some that didn’t mention Ty Cobb and Shoeless Joe Jackson. Research was presented that made strong cases for Billy Wagner as the best ever left-handed relief pitcher; Kirk Reuter as the best fielding pitcher of his era; and the ages of 29-31 as the years when hitters reach their peaks.
 
            The Rogers Hornsby Chapter was well represented. Cy Morong, Tom Wancho and Bill Gilbert were in attendance and Monte Cely was recognized at the luncheon as one of the judges for the Sporting News Award. Norman Macht contributed an excellent article to Baseball in the Peach State, the Convention Publication of The National Pastime. The article is entitled “Memories of a Minor-League Traveler” about his years with Ernie Harwell and his experiences as a minor league business manager. A highlight for me was being part of the winning four-man team in the Trivia Contest for the first time in 16 years. In the finals, we won on a tiebreaker which was to name the nine players in the starting lineup when the Atlanta Braves played their first game in 1966. We identified six and our opponents came up with four. Anybody want to take a shot at it (without looking it up?)
 
            The game we attended was not one of my best baseball experiences. Our bus parked a long way from the stadium and then we experienced a two-hour rain delay before the game started. The game went into extra innings when the Giants scored a run without a hit off the greatest left-handed closer in the ninth inning and another one without a hit in the eleventh inning to win it. After the long walk back to the bus and some traffic delays, we arrived back at the hotel at 1:30 a.m.
 
            The convention will be in Los Angeles in 2011 and Minneapolis has been officially announced as the site in 2012. Houston is being considered as a potential site in 2013. Since putting on a convention is very labor-intensive, there should be some volunteer opportunities for Hornsby Chapter members if Houston gets it.

On being a Houston Astros fan

By Gilbert D. Martinez

I grew up in South Texas following the Houston Astros, mostly on the radio with my dad. I remember J.R. Richard and Nolan Ryan pitching for the Astros but was too young to understand the complexities of their teams’ playoff runs.

I died with the ’86 Astros team and still dislike the New York Mets organization because of that memorable and heart-wrenching NLCS (with apologies to Jim Baker). When I lived in New Jersey for seven years, I had a hard time living around Mets fans, who loved the ’86 season.

The Golden Age of the Astros really started when Biggio and Bagwell started to carry the team in the late ’90s. When Roy Oswalt came along in 2001, the strong run of Astros teams continued.

Of course, 2004 and 2005 are among the greatest Astros seasons ever.

And during all of this time as an Astros fan, I was becoming spoiled. I didn’t know it at the time, but I know it now.

Spoiled how? I was spoiled because I expected the Astros players to be homegrown, to win a World Series and to play their entire careers with the Astros. Sure, I embraced Randy Johnson when he came via trade, but when he left after the Astros playoff run in ’98 ended, so did my acceptance of him.

But Biggio and Bagwell were still around, and would always be there. And when their candidacies for the Hall of Fame are debated, the virtue of playing for the same team their entire careers – a la Cal Ripken Jr., Tony Gwynn, Ryne Sandberg and Kirby Puckett in recent years – will be highly touted.

I thought Oswalt and Berkman would stay. They were homegrown; they played in a World Series; so of course I expected them to play their entire careers in Houston.

In past years, Oswalt’s name would come up before the July 31st trade deadline, but I never took it seriously. Just like I didn’t believe that the Astros wouldn’t re-sign Biggio for the 2007 season so that he could reach 3,000 hits.

Even when Oswalt publicly announced that he wanted out of Houston, I still didn’t believe that Drayton McLane would actually agree to trade him.

As for Berkman – a Texas native who had made it clear that he belongs in Texas – I didn’t think he would be traded. After all, he said he didn’t want to leave. He did say he’d listen to offers, but listening to offers is very different from agreeing to waive a no-trade clause.

And McLane would never trade away the two faces of the franchise – both of whom played in the only World Series the Astros have been in, and one of whom was the last Astros player still on the roster (Berkman) to suit up in the Astrodome.

Boy, was I wrong. I was wrong because I had been spoiled. I expected Oswalt and Berkman to play their entire careers with the Astros. I didn’t expect them to be traded away within 48 hours.

Because I’ve been spoiled, I found out how much it hurt to hear that Oswalt wanted to leave Houston – mostly because the team has been mediocre, the team had not been competitive, the team had no future because of a depleted farm system and the team couldn’t score any runs for his starts. I guess I can’t blame him, but breaking up is harder for the guy who’s not leaving.

Amid all this pain, I look to see who’s left with the Astros and find that it’s a more exciting bunch than I realized. I expect J.A. Happ to be solid, and I’m hopeful that Brett Wallace is the hitting machine he’s made out to be.

But this injection of youth has also energized other young players on our team – Chris Johnson is tearing it up, Jason Castro is coming around, and Angel Sanchez had a career game against the Cardinals in Busch Stadium, no less.

Who knows what the future holds for this Astros team? I don’t, but I know this: watching the Astros in the week since the trade deadline was a lot of fun. Solid pitching, clutch hitting, great defense – all are essential elements for good baseball.

And now, I feel like there’s hope on the horizon – those dire predictions about the Astros should be set aside. All of a sudden, the future isn’t looking so bad.

I may have been spoiled, and I may wince when I see Berkman in Yankee pinstripes or Oswalt in red Phillies shoes, but I’ve realized that it’s the Astros as a team that I love most.

What Ever Happened to the 2005 Houston Astros?

 

What Ever Happened to the 2005 Houston Astros?
 
By Bill Gilbert
 
          In the last week, Eric Bruntlett was released by the Washington Nationals, Jason Lane was released by the Florida Marlins, Adam Everett was designated for assignment by the Detroit Tigers and Mike Lamb was designated for assignment by the Marlins. All four were members of the 2005 Houston Astros team that won the National League pennant. This raises a question about how the Astros failed to sustain the success that was achieved in 2005.  
 
          Headliners on the 2005 Astros were lifetime Astros, Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, and veteran American League pitchers, Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte who were signed away from the Yankees ,  as free agents. However, the heart of the team consisted of a contingent of players signed and developed by the Astros who were moving into their prime years, pitchers Roy Oswalt (28), Brad Lidge (28) Chad Qualls (27) and Mike Gallo (28), infielders Morgan Ensberg (30), Chris Burke (25) and Bruntlett (27) and outfielders Lance Berkman (29) and Lane (28).
 
          The demise of the team was due to several factors. Pettitte and Clemens went back to the Yankees after the 2006 season, Bagwell retired after 2005 when he was no longer able to play with his arthritic shoulder, and a fading Biggio hung on through 2007. The scouting and development system failed to produce adequate replacements. However, the biggest reason was the failure of most of the home grown players to sustain their early promise.
 
          Oswalt and Berkman were already well established in 2005 and continued to play well until experiencing some decline in 2009. Lidge had a poor year in 2006 and has been inconsistent since then except for a big year with the Phillies in 2008. Qualls is pitching inconsistently in relief with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Gallo hasn’t been in the major leagues since 2006.
 
          Burke and Bruntlett were utility players but both made game-winning plays in the 2005 post-season. Neither hit well enough to be major league regulars. Burke is now playing in the Cincinnati Reds minor league system and Bruntlett played in the 2008 and 2009 World Series with the Phillies before dropping into the minor leagues.
 
          The big dilemma is what happened to Ensberg and Lane. Teammates on USC’s College World Series Champions in 1998, they both had, by far, their best years in 2005 but never came close to matching this success.   Former Astros General Manager, Gerry Hunsicker, once said that he thought Ensberg and Lane would be as good as Berkman. In 2005, Ensberg was better than Berkman. Ensberg, the team MVP, batted .287 with 36 home runs in 2005 and finished 4th in the voting for National League MVP. He fell off to 23 home runs in 2006 and 8 in 2007 and was out of baseball in 2009. Lane led all National League right fielders with 26 home runs in 2005 but never hit more than 15 in any other season. He last played in the majors in 2007 but hung around in the minors until his release last week.
 
          Ensberg’s demise may have been at least partially due to a shoulder injury sustained while diving for a foul ball in 2006. However, my recollection is that what hurt both of them was the loss of aggressiveness in their approach at the plate. They took too many pitches for strikes and had difficulty getting into good hitters counts.
 
          The short-lived success of the Astros is a good example of the difficulty of a mid-market team to remain among the elite. It can quickly fall apart due to factors such as injuries, age and an unexpected decline in performance. All played a part in what one sportswriter described as a “descent into irrelevance”. In the case of the Astros, the most notable factor was the failure of players in their prime years to produce.