Category: Papers

Triple Milestones – 2008

 

Triple Milestones – 2008
 
By Bill Gilbert
 
      Offensive production in the major leagues continued to decline in 2008. The home run rate of 2.01 per game was the lowest since 1993. All offensive categories were down in 2008 and are significantly below the peak year of 2000 as illustrated in the following table:
 
Year      Runs/Game HR/Game BAVG  OBA    SLG    OPS      Triple Milestone Hitters
—- ——— ——- —-   —-   —-  —     ————————
1990     8.51     1.58   .258 .324   .386   .710              2
1991     8.62     1.61   .255 .323   .384   .707              3
1992     8.23     1.44   .256 .322   .377   .699              2
1993     9.20     1.78   .266 .332   .404   .736              5
1994     9.85     2.07   .270 .339   .424   .763              3
1995     9.69     2.02   .267 .338   .417   .755              8
1996    10.07     2.19   .270 .340   .427   .767             21
1997     9.53     2.05   .267 .337   .419   .756              7
1998     9.58     2.08   .266 .335   .420   .755             14
1999    10.17     2.28   .271 .345   .434   .779             19
2000    10.28     2.34   .271 .345   .437   .782             26
2001     9.55     2.25   .264 .332   .427   .759             21
2002     9.24     2.09   .261 .331   .417   .748             12
2003     9.46     2.14   .264 .332   .422   .754              8
2004     9.63     2.25   .266 .335   .428   .763             12
2005     9.18     2.06   .265 .330   .419   .749             10
2006     9.72     2.22   .269 .336   .432   .768             13
2007     9.59     2.04   .268 .336   .423   .759              8 
2008     9.30     2.01   .264 .333   .417   .750              7
 
 
      No players hit 50 home runs in 2008 and only 2 hit 40 (Ryan Howard 46 and Adam Dunn 40). In 2007, two players reached the 50 HR mark and 5 hit 40. In 2006, 13 players reached the 40 level. The 30 home run level was reached by 28 players in 2008 compared to 26 in 2007 and 34 in 2006. 
 
      A useful indicator for tracking offense is the number of players who hit for both power and average by achieving a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 runs batted in. A record 26 players reached all three milestones in 2000, but that figure has dropped significantly in recent years. Seven players reached all three milestones in 2008, down from 8 in 2007 and 13 in 2006. Four players made it in both 2007 and 2008, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and David Wright.
 
Four American League players achieved all three milestones in 2008 while three National League Players made it. Albert Pujols became the only player to do it in his first 8 seasons. The only newcomer to the .300-30-100 club in 2008 was Josh Hamilton who became the 161st player to register a .300-30-100 season starting with Babe Ruth in 1920.
 
      Following is a listing of players who achieved triple milestones
in 2008:
 
Player           Times BAVG-HR-RBI       Comments
American
Alex Rodriguez     8    .302-35-103 Not one of his best years.
Mark Teixeira      3    .308-33-121 Combined record in NL and AL.
Aubrey Huff        2    .304-32-108 Came in under the radar.     
Josh Hamilton      1    .304-32-130 Great comeback story.
 
 
 
Player           Times BAVG-HR-RBI       Comments
National
Manny Ramirez     10    .332-37-121 Back after missing in 2007.
Albert Pujols      8    .357-37-116 Eight straight years.
David Wright       2    .302-33-124 May be starting a long string.
 
      Four players achieved triple milestones in 2007 but fell short in 2008:
 
Player           Times    BAVG-HR-RBI    BAVG-HR-RBI    
                 In Past      2007           2008     Comments
David Ortiz        3     .332-35-117    .264-23- 89 Injured wrist.
Miguel Cabrera     2     .320-34-119    .292-37-127 BAVG down.
Matt Holliday      2     .340-36-137    .321-25- 88 Lost power stroke.
Carlos Lee         2     .303-32-119    .314-28-100 Missed 66 games.
 
      Three players came within one swing of the bat of reaching triple milestones.
 
Kevin Youkilis          .312-29-115      Needed another homer.
Lance Berkman           .312-29-106      Hit only 2 homers in September.
Ryan Ludwick            .299-37-113      Needed another hit.
  
      A growing list contains the names of players, active in 2008, who have had multiple .300-30-100 seasons in the past but have not done it in the last three years. Many have been limited by injuries. Some are still very productive players but not at the same level they were in their peak years. Since this list was started in 2004, not one player has come back with another .300-30-100 season.
 
                                 Last
                .300-30-100  .300-30-100 
Player            Seasons      Season       2008     Comments 
Frank Thomas         7           2000    .240- 8- 30  End of the line.
Gary Sheffield       6           2003    .225-19- 57  Injuries have taken toll.
Todd Helton          5           2003    .264- 7- 29 Bad back ruined season.
Chipper Jones        5           2001    .364-22- 75 Misses too much time.
Jason Giambi         4           2002    .247-32- 96 Still has power.
Magglio Ordonez      4           2002    .317-21-103 Still productive. 
Ken Griffey, Jr.     3           1997    .249-18- 71 Winding down HOF career.   
Carlos Delgado       3           2005    .271-38-115 Strong second half.
Moises Alou          2           2000    .347- 0- 9  Body breaking down.
Brian Giles          2           2000    .306-12- 63 Lost power stroke.
Luis Gonzalez        2           2001    .261- 8- 47 Just hanging on.
Jim Thome            2           2002    .245-34- 90 Strikes out, walks or homers.
Jeff Kent            2           2002    .280-12- 59 No longer a regular.
Aramis Ramirez       2           2004    .289-27-111 Usually comes close.
Miguel Tejada        2           2004    .283-13- 66 Decline accelerates.
 
      In his 1988 Baseball Abstract, Bill James referred to triple
milestone seasons as "Hall of Fame Seasons". This was because all of the
eligible players with 5 or more triple milestone seasons had been
elected to the Hall of Fame. This correlation has continued to hold but is likely to break down when Juan Gonzalez becomes eligible in 2011.
 
            No teams had two players with triple milestones in 2008. Twenty seven of the thirty major league teams have had at least one triple milestone hitter in the decade beginning with the year 2000. Of the three teams that haven’t, Cincinnati has the longest dry spell. Their last triple milestone hitter was George Foster in 1977. The others and the last player to do it are Kansas City (Danny Tartabull – 1991) and Milwaukee (John Jaha – 1996).    
 
 
     
      Three minor league players recorded triple milestone seasons in 2008. All three finished the season in the major leagues, two with the Texas Rangers.
 
Player            Team (Level)     Organization     Age   BAVG-HR-RBI  
 
Nelson Cruz       Oklahoma (AAA)    Texas            27   .342-37- 99
                  Texas (AL)                              .330- 7- 26            
                                                          .339-44-125
 
Chris Davis       Frisco (AA)       Texas            22   .333-13- 42
                  Oklahoma (AAA)                          .333-10- 31
                  Texas                                   .285-17- 55
                                                          .309-40-128
 
Kila Ka’aihue     NW Arkansas (AA)  Florida          24   .312-26- 78
                  Omaha (AAA)                             .316-11- 21
                  Kansas City (AL)                        .286- 1- 1
                                                          .312-38-100
 
      Four others came close:
 
Joe Koshansky     Colo. Springs (AAA)Colorado        26   .300-31-121
                  Colorado (NL)                           .211- 3- 8
                                                          .293-34-129
 
      Koshansky had minor league triple milestones but his overall batting average fell under .300 with his major league at-bats.
 
 
 
Scott McClain     Fresno (AAA) San Francisco        36    .300-29-108
                  San Francisco (NL)                      .273- 2- 7
                                                          .298-31-115
 
      McClain fell one home run short in the minor leagues. He added 2 homers in the majors but his overall batting average fell below .300.
 
 
 
Lou Montanez      Bowie (AA)        Baltimore       26      .335-26- 97
                  Baltimore (AL)                            .295- 3- 14
                                                            .327-29-111
 
      Montanez fell short by one swing of the bat.
 
 
 
Brian Dopirak     Dunedin           Toronto         24      .308-27- 88
                  New Hampshire (AA)                        .287- 2- 13
                                                            .304-29-101
 
      Dopirak, who had triple milestones in 2004 in the Cubs system, also fell short by one swing of the bat.
 
 
      A player from the Independent Leagues also achieved triple milestones in 2008 and another one came close.
 
Josh Pressley      Somerset (Atl)                   28      .354-30-101
 
      Pressley played 9 seasons in affiliated ball in 6 different organizations.
 
 
Carl Everett      Long Island (Atl)                 37      .327-29-100
 
      Everett had a 14-year major league career including a triple milestone season with Boston in 2000.
 
 
      No college players achieved triple milestones in 2008                                                
 
      Pitchers also strive for triple milestones – 20 wins, 200 strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00. Esteban Loaiza was the only pitcher to do it in 2003 (21-9, 207, 2.90). Johan Santana (20-6, 265, 2.61) did it in 2004 and Chris Carpenter (21-5, 213, 2.83) was the only one to do it in 2005. None made it in 2006. In 2007, Jake Peavy led the NL in all three categories (19-6, 240, 2.54) but fell one victory short when he failed to win the playoff game for the NL wild card. In 2008, Roy Halladay of Toronto broke through with a triple milestone season (20-11, 206, 2.78)
 
10/13/08

 

Who’s on Deck for Consideration for the Baseball Hall of Fame?

 

Who’s on Deck for Consideration for the Baseball Hall of Fame?
 
By Bill Gilbert
 
 
            Now that Goose Gossage has finally been elected to the Hall of Fame, it’s a good time to look ahead at the candidates that will be on the ballot in coming years.   The 2008 ballot was very unfriendly to newcomers with the 543 members of the BBWAA awarding this group of 11 players only 143 votes, 132 of them to Tim Raines. None of the other 10 received as much as 1% of the votes and, as a result, will be eliminated from further consideration. 
 
            For convenience in identifying potential candidates in coming years, I chose to use Bill James Win Shares. James has stated that, in the past, 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer but he further states that it may not be the case in the future. To be inclusive, I used a cut point of 250 points for position players and 200 points for pitchers in this study.
 
            Here are the players who meet my criteria and are eligible to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in the next five years.
 
 
2009 Ballot
 
Rickey Henderson 535 Win Shares
Mark Grace 294
David Cone 205
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Unless he succeeds in another comeback, a possibility that can’t be eliminated with Rickey, Henderson will finally be eligible and should easily be elected with the likelihood of one of the more entertaining acceptance speeches in recent years.
 
            None of the other 2009 newcomers is a strong candidate, opening the door for holdover, Jim Rice, to make it in his final year of eligibility.
 
 
2010 Ballot
 
Roberto Alomar 375 Win Shares
Barry Larkin 347
Fred McGriff 326
Edgar Martinez 305
Robin Ventura 272
Ellis Burks 260
Andres Galarraga 251
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            The 2010 Class is strong with several players likely to remain on the ballot for a number of years. While none may make it on the first ballot, the top four all have a chance with the passage of time.
 
 
2011 Ballot
 
Rafael Palmeiro 394 Win Shares
Jeff Bagwell 387
Larry Walker  307
John Olerud 301
Kevin Brown 241
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Palmeiro and Bagwell clearly have the numbers but there is a question about how voters will treat power hitters from the steroid era.
 
 
2012 Ballot
 
Bernie Williams 311 Win Shares
 
 
 
            The 2012 ballot shapes up as one even weaker than 2008 which could provide an opportunity for some holdovers to cash in.
 
 
2013 Ballot
 
            The 2013 ballot, possibly headed by Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, could be the strongest and most controversial ever.
 
Barry Bonds 705 Win Shares
Roger Clemens 437
Craig Biggio 428
Mike Piazza 325
Sammy Sosa 322
Luis Gonzalez 309
Steve Finley 297
Kenny Lofton 288
Julio Franco 280
David Wells 210
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            This class is likely to shrink since it contains several free agents who hope to continue their careers. The only one who has officially retired is Biggio/
 
 
Active Players
 
            An impressive group of players are still active who have enough Win Shares to qualify for these lists when they retire.
 
Gary Sheffield 418 Win Shares
Frank Thomas 400
Greg Maddux 392
Ken Griffey, Jr. 381
Alex Rodriguez 377
Manny Ramirez 348
Jeff Kent 330
Chipper Jones 326
Jim Thome 325
Tom Glavine 289
Randy Johnson 309
Ivan Rodriguez 308
Derek Jeter 301
Jason Giambi 289
John Smoltz 286
Jim Edmonds 283
Carlos Delgado 275
Moises Alou 275
Vladimir Guerrero 272
Bobby Abreu 267
Brian Giles 266
Omar Vizquel 262
Mike Mussina 254
Curt Schilling 252
Todd Helton 252
Pedro Martinez 251
Jamie Moyer 202
Kenny Rogers 202
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Bill Gilbert
1/11/08

 

On-Base Percentage as a Measure of Offensive Performance

 

            About 20 years ago, I recall asking a group of knowledgeable baseball friends what they thought the best single statistic was for measuring offensive performance. The consensus was that it was slugging average. If I posed the same question today to respected baseball analysts, I’m certain that the answer would be on-base percentage and they could cite studies to support their position.
 
            The importance of on-base percentage in scoring runs is obvious. However, is it always the best way to evaluate a player’s performance? Consider the curious case of Morgan Ensberg. In 2005, Ensberg had a breakout year, batting .283 with 36 home runs, 101 RBIs and an on-base percentage of .388. He was voted the Most Valuable Player on Houston’s National League Championship team and finished 4th in the voting for the National League MVP.
 
            In 2006, he started out on an even stronger pace with 9 home runs and 19 RBIs in April. Among National League batters, only Albert Pujols had a better month. Ensberg finished the 2006 season with an on-base percentage of .396, an improvement over his strong showing in 2005. So he must have had a better year in 2006 than in 2005. Not so fast. Let’s take a look at the other numbers.
 
            In 2006, Ensberg batted .235 with 23 home runs and only 58 RBIs. He began the season batting 4th in the lineup behind Lance Berkman and in front of Preston Wilson and Jason Lane. His primary job was to drive in runs, and with Berkman having an outstanding season, he had plenty of opportunities.
 
            Ensberg’s performance tailed off sharply in May when he batted only .216 and was even worse in June. He was batting .174 for the month when he injured his right shoulder on June 9.  He missed a week before returning to the lineup. He was obviously hampered by the shoulder injury and finally went on the disabled list on July 10.
 
            Ensberg’s poor performance and injury prompted the Astros to trade away two prospects to Tampa Bay for third baseman Aubrey Huff. It also provided an opportunity for Mike Lamb to play third base. When Ensberg returned from the disabled list on August 1, he did not play well enough to regain his starting position and he played intermittently for the remainder of the season. In August and September, Ensberg had an on-base percentage well over .400 but had only 4 home runs and 14 RBIs in 171 plate appearances, an unacceptable rate for a batter in the middle of the order.
 
            Ensberg seemed reluctant to swing the bat when he came back, which may have been due to continued shoulder soreness. He did not hit with power and appeared to be working for walks which also resulted in a lot of strikeouts. He did not provide the type of offensive production that the offensively-challenged Astros needed in the middle of the batting order.
 
            With Ensberg’s failure as a run producer, the Astros needed to beef up the offense and may have overspent and mortgaged the future in signing free agent, Carlos Lee, to a 6-year, $100 million contract. Another reason for the need for more run production was the failure of Jason Lane to produce in 2006. Lane led all NL right fielders in home runs in 2005 with 26 while batting .267. However, in 2006, he hit just 15 home runs while batting only .201. Lane, like Ensberg, had a higher on-base percentage in 2006 than he did in 2005.
 
            What can be learned from this development is that on-base percentage, while important, especially for hitters at the top of the batting order, can be much less important for hitters in the middle of the order who are expected to be run producers.
 
Bill Gilbert     
3/6/07