Society for American Baseball Research
We will be gathering at Iron Works BBQ located at 100 Red River in downtown Austin on Thursday, August 23 starting at 6:00 p.m.
There is a small parking lot on-site, a larger lot on the south side of Cesar Chavez plus large pay lots across the street to the east. Please RSVP to Jan Larson at jan.a.larson@gmail.com if you plan to attend.
The Hornsby Chapter will be venturing to Houston on Saturday, August 11 and Sunday August 12 to take in a pair of games between the Astros and the Milwaukee Brewers. Game time on Saturday is 6:05 p.m. and Sunday is 1:05 p.m.
Those interested in attending are responsible for making their own hotel reservations. The Hilton Americas hotel at 1600 Lamar Street is within walking distance of Minute Maid Park and is the suggested hotel but there are a lot of hotels in downtown Houston so attendees may choose to stay elsewhere if so inclined.
Orders for field level tickets for both games are due by 12:00 noon on Saturday, August 4. Please email Jan Larson at jan.a.larson@gmail.com with questions or to place a ticket order.
The Rogers Hornsby Chapter continued to remain active throughout the year – extending its consecutive monthly meeting streak, hosting winter meetings and SABR Day celebrations, organizing baseball trips for members and honoring the chapter founder with a lifetime achievement award.
The chapter met for the 66th consecutive month in May 2012, a streak dating to December 2006.
Chapter members honored the Hornsby Chapter founder and longtime SABR member Bill Gilbert with the inaugural Rajah Award for his significant contributions to the chapter.
At the chapter winter meeting at Texas State University in January 2011, Houston Astros television broadcaster Bill Brown, Round Rock Express radio broadcaster Mike Capps and his radio booth partner Jerry Grote, former catcher with the 1969 “Miracle Mets,” were special guests. Later that month on SABR Day, members gathered for a viewing of “Field of Dreams” and “The Natural.”
Among the highlights of the year, a dozen chapter members and guests enjoyed the “owner’s experience” at Whataburger Field, home of the Corpus Christi Hooks, the AA affiliate of the Houston Astros, in late April and early May 2011. Other chapter activities in the year included an outing to a Round Rock Express game and hosting a watch party for Game 3 of the World Series. The group also attended a showing of the film, “Moneyball,” and discussed it with Brian McNulty, a production manager on several Hollywood films.
Chapter commissioner Gilbert D. Martinez gave a research presentation at SABR 41 in Long Beach, California, in July 2011. The presentation examined the no-decision statistic. More information about the presentation can be found on the chapter website (http://chapters.sabr.org/hornsby) under the research and articles tab.
In 2012, the chapter held their Sixth Annual Winter Meeting, which included presentations by Branch Rickey III, president of the Pacific Coast League; Frank Coffland, a retired minor league umpire; Norman Macht, baseball historian, former SABR board member and author of the multi-volume biography of Connie Mack; and Scott Barzilla, author of “The Hall of Fame Index.”
Another 2012 chapter highlight was the book signing by Macht of his newly published “Connie Mack: The Turbulent & Triumphant Years, 1915-1931,” the second volume of his biography of the great manager.
Hornsby Chapter member Monte Cely completed the last of three years of service as a judge for the SABR Baseball Book Research Award. For more information on these awards, go to the SABR website announcement (http://sabr.org/about/sabr-baseball-research-award).
Fifteen chapter members enjoyed barbeque and baseball talk at the midseason break on Thursday, July 12.
Despite quiz-maker Jim Baker’s best efforts, a few of us eked out a few correct answers in Baker’s “The Perfect Quiz,” which focused on the 22 perfect games in Major League Baseball history.
Bill Gilbert was the only one to reach double-digits in overall score with 10 total points. Ira Siegel was second with seven points. Try your hand in the ‘Contests’ tab above, or by clicking here.
This was the 68th consecutive month that the chapter has met. On the horizon are Mark McGwire’s 70 and Barry Bonds’ 73.
Next meeting is scheduled for 6 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 23.
by Jim Baker
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Answer Pool: Lee Richmond, John Montgomery Ward, Cy Young, Addie Joss, Charlie Robertson, Don Larsen, Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax, Catfish Hunter, Len Barker, Mike Witt, Tom Browning, Dennis Martinez, Kenny Rogers, David Wells, David Cone, Randy Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Dallas Braden, Roy Halladay, Philip Humber, Matt Cain |
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| 1. |
Who are the only two pitchers to throw their perfectos against teams with an OPS+ over 100? Hint: The two games came against the same franchise within a three-year period. (3 pts each) |
Mark Buehrle and Dallas Braden, vs. TB Rays, 106 in 2009 and 105 in 2010 |
| 2. |
Who threw his against the eventual World Champions for that season? (2 pts) |
Tom Browning vs. 1988 Dodgers |
| 3. |
Excluding the two 19th Century games, whose perfect game was attended by the fewest people? (2 pts) |
Catfish Hunter vs. Minnesota, 6,298 in 1968 |
| 4. |
Whose perfect game had the largest attendance? (1 pt) |
Don Larsen, 64,519; 1956 World Series |
| 5. |
Who threw his in the heat of a pennant race in the last week of the season against the team that was in third-place, right behind his team in the standings? (Although neither team would finish first.) (2 pts) |
Addie Joss of Cleveland vs. Chicago White Sox in 1908 (Detroit would win the pennant) |
| 6. |
Which perfect-game pitcher got the most run support from his mates? (1 pt) |
Matt Cain, 10 runs; last month |
| 7. |
Which perfect-game author got to face his opposing moundsman for the last out of the game? (2 pts) |
Cy Young faced Rube Waddell, 1904 |
| 8. |
Who threw the first night game perfecto? (2 pts) |
Sandy Koufax vs. Cubs, 1965 |
| 9. |
Who was the youngest man to throw a perfect game? (3 pts) |
Monte Ward, age 20; 1880 |
| 10. |
Six of the perfect games have been thrown on the road. Who was the first to do it? He was even carried off the field on the shoulders of the opposing fans! (3 pts) |
Charlie Robertson in Detroit in 1922. Ty Cobb’s BA after the game was down to .083. |
| 11. |
Whose perfect game is the only to occur against an interleague opponent? (It’s also the only one with a rain delay.) (1 pt) |
David Cone, Yankees vs. Expos in 1999. |
| 12. |
Who is the only perfect-game spinner to also throw a no-hitter the same year? (2 pts) |
Roy Halladay, 2010. |
| 13. |
Which two franchises have been involved in the most perfect games, either winning or losing? (2 pts each) |
White Sox and Dodgers with four each. |
| 14. |
Seven current franchises have never been involved in a perfect game. Four are expansion teams, but two of them originated in the 19th Century. Name those two. (1 pt each) |
Pittsburgh and St. Louis. |
| 15. |
Who are the only two franchises to have reciprocal perfect games. (Their perfect games came against each other.) (Must have both. 3 points total.) |
Rangers and Angels; Mike Witt vs. Texas in 1984; Kenny Rogers vs. Angels 10 years later. |
| 16. |
Bonus: Name the player who was in the lineup for three teams that had perfectos thrown against them. (3 pts) |
Bonus: Alfredo Griffin: Barker in 1981, Browning in 1988 and Martinez in 1991. He batted leadoff in the first two games (in spite of OBPs of .243 and .259 in those years) and was pulled for a pinch hitter in his third PA of the last game). |
We will be gathering at Iron Works BBQ located at 100 Red River in downtown Austin on Thursday, July 12 starting at 6:00 p.m.
There is a small parking lot on-site, a larger lot on the south side of Cesar Chavez plus large pay lots across the street to the east. Please RSVP to Jan Larson at jan.a.larson@gmail.com if you plan to attend.
Sixteen chapter members and guests were treated to several impressive home runs on a pleasant summer evening Saturday, June 16, at the Dell Diamond.
The Oklahoma City RedHawks, the Houston Astros’ Triple-A affiliate, defeated the Round Rock Express, 8-5, in part, because of back-to-back home runs by Mike Hessman and Brad Snyder and another by Landon Powell. The Express made a charge in the ninth, scoring three runs before falling short. Brad Nelson and Julio Borbon contributed with home runs.
Former Detroit Tiger Armando Galarraga, who nearly threw a perfect game in 2010, pitched well enough for the RedHawks and notched his first win with the team. After stints with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Baltimore Orioles, Galarraga signed a minor league contract with the Astros in May.
The next Hornsby Chapter meeting is scheduled for 6 p.m. Thursday, July 12, at Iron Works BBQ in downtown Austin, and comes at the halfway point of the season. Discussions of the first half and predictions for the second half will surely be among the topics of discussion.
With the "unofficial" start of summer upon us, here are some recommendations for your summer baseball reading enjoyment (when you’re not watching games, of course):
Connie Mack – the Turbulent and Triumphant Years 1915-1931 by Norman L. Macht (Univ. of Nebraska Press) – in the second volume of Mack’s biography, Norman exposes truths and debunks fables about the Tall Tactician. The reader is also transported back in time to the days of the World War, the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression. A must-read.
Out of Left Field – Jews and Black Baseball by Rebecca T. Alpert (Oxford University Press) – the story of Jewish promoters, businessmen, and sportswriters and their deep involvement with African-American baseball. An enlightening story, with a special meaning for the "left" in left field.
Kenichi Zenimura – Japanese American Baseball Pioneer by Bill Staples, Jr. (McFarland) – a biography of "Ken" Zenimura, the Japanese/Hawaiian-American player, manager, and promoter of baseball among Japanese Americans. Zenimura was instrumental in the organization of Japanese-American leagues in California, the promotion of tours between Japanese and American teams, and the organization of sports leagues in the internment camps during World War II (he and his family were held at a camp in Arizona). An inspiring story.
56 – Joe DiMaggio and the Last Magic Number in Sports by Kostya Kennedy (Sports Illustrated Books) – a look at DiMaggio’s streak in the context of early-1940s America. An interesting and entertaining read about DiMaggio’s personal realtionships and American society at that time.
The Wonder Team in the White City by Tom Simon (Gardner-Waterman Press) – the story of the University of Vermont baseball team of the 1880s and 1890s. This book paints a great picture of the early days of collegiate baseball, culminating in the first "intercollegiate championship" held at the 1893 World’s Columbian Exposition in Chicago. An insightful quote from this book (from the March 2, 1892 issue of the U. of Vermont student newspaper) has special meaning for SABR members:
"Base ball is indispensable to our well-being."
The June meeting of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter is set for Saturday, June 16. We will be gathering for pre-game barbeque at the Salt Lick restaurant at 5:30 p.m. followed by the game between the home standing Round Rock Express and the visting Oklahoma City Redhawks. Game time is 7:05 p.m.
Please RSVP to Jan Larson at jan.a.larson@gmail.com by noon on Saturday June 9 (one week in advance of the game) and indicate (1) how many in your party will be partaking in the pre-game meal (for the purposes of making a reservation) and (2) how many game tickets you will require. Tickets are $14 plus a $1 service fee.
At the May 2012 Hornsby Chapter meeting, the subject of BABIP came up and that led to a spirited discussion. Dan Walsh then took it upon himself to do some research on the subject. The article below is a consolidation of the emails that Dan sent to the group with his findings.
Jan Larson
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PART I
Last night, the conversation went something like this: Monte: “So, you’re telling me that the top 5% pitchers have the same BABIP as the bottom 5% pitchers?” Jim responded: “Yes”. Monte: “I don’t believe it.”
Using the 2011 season, I looked at the numbers for all major league pitchers who qualified for the ERA title (96 pitchers), and based the top 5% and bottom 5% solely on ERA. Here they are, with BABIP and ERA. The MLB averages in 2011 were: BABIP = .295 ERA= 3.94
Top 5% BABIP ERA
Clayton Kershaw .274 2.28
Roy Halladay .305 2.35
Justin Verlander .240 2.37
Cliff Lee .293 2.40
Jered Weaver .252 2.41
Bottom 5%
Brad Penny .312 5.30
Fausto Carmona .296 5.25
Brian Duensing .334 5.23
A.J. Burnett .296 5.15
Bronson Arroyo .281 5.07
A quick look at the numbers appears to favor Monte. (Monte, you can stop reading at this point). However, the stats raise some interesting questions: How does Halladay record the 2nd lowest ERA with a BABIP above the league average? And Arroyo the 5th highest ERA with a below-average BABIP.
As I recall, Monte and Ira were sure that the quality of pitching does affect whether or not a batter gets a hit. I certainly agree with them on this point. All pitchers are not created equal, and their pitching skills can impact the placement of a batted ball. Jim was equally certain that all pitchers have an identical BABIP. Well, that just can’t be…perhaps, all pitchers have a historical norm; however, they didn’t all have a BABIP of .295 last year, or in any other year. Regardless, that’s missing the point of what Jim was saying (not trying to put words in your mount here, Jim). BABIP is a pitcher’s average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs. It measures the hit rate after a ball is put in play. After the ball is in the field of play, whether or not it falls for a hit is dependent on the defense and random chance (i.e., luck). Even when Mariano Rivera saws a bat in two, thae batted ball still has a chance to be a hit. If A-Rod, Jeter or Cano can’t make a play, then it isn’t Rivera’s fault. Thus, Rivera has little ability to prevent a hit once the ball is in play. That’s how I understand BABIP as it applies to pitchers.
How about Halladay and Arroyo? If you accept the premise that the pitcher does not have complete control over his hit rate, and you want do know how effective a pitcher is; then, you need to look at those things that the pitcher does control – specifically, walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed. Among our 96 pitchers, Halladay had the 3rd lowest BB/9, 3rd lowest HR/9, and was 17th in K/9. Whereas Arroyo, was 17th in BB/9, 89th in SO/9, and #96! in HR/9. Conicidenatlly, Cincy had the lowest team BABIP in the NL last year; perhaps Arroyo relies on his defense to prevent runs because his pitching skills certainly are not doing are not doing the job.
Thanks to Jan for sending all the BABIP links. For the original research go to Baseball Prospectus. Attached is a spreadsheet file with all Pitchers and team data for 2011. Enjoy!
PART II
Here’s the comparisons – the attached spreadsheet shows those 10 pitchers for the last 5 years, with their career BABIP. Is there any consistency? A couple of these guys show some consistency from year-to-year. Weaver is interesting – BABIP has decreased each of the past 4 years. However, overall this group of pitchers is up and down each year – which is one of the points that Voros McCracken noted in his original research. You can’t predict BABIP based on the pitcher’s previous performance in the stat – it doesn’t correlate from year to year. McCracken also noted that the majority of pitchers who have pitched significant innings have career rates between .280 and .290. That pretty much holds true for this group, as shown in their career BABIP. Maybe that’s what Jim was getting at (putting words in his mouth agin..). Based on his career BABIP, one would expect Verlander to eventually settle down into a 28-29% hit rate, rather than the ridiculous 24% rate – or maybe not – let’s see what it looks like at the end of this season.