Rogers Hornsby Chapter

Post-Season Prediction results – 2010

The only player to correctly name the winner in all four LDS, Craig was also only one of three players to glean any points from the rounds beyond the LDS. Only he, Brian and Norman had the foresight to pick the Rangers to make it to the World Series and only Brian did it in the correct amount of games: six. For his efforts, Brian is the 2010 runner-up. Third place goes to Tom, who gets the nod over Michael and Steve on the basis of having been the closest on the total number of games played in the postseason. Even though we don’t know the duration of the World Series yet, we do know the game total won’t exceed 34.)

Hornsby Postseason 2010!			Total	PHI-CIN			ATL-SFG			TBR-TEX			NYY-MIN			NLCS			ALCS			World Series			# games
Hornsby Postseason 2010!			Total	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	predicted
1	Craig	Lukshin	27	PHI	3	5	SFG	4	5	TEX	4	4	NYY	5	4	PHI	6	0	TEX	7	9	PHI	6	0	35
2	Brian	Rogers	17	PHI	4	4	ATL	4	-5	TEX	4	4	NYY	5	4	PHI	5	0	TEX	6	10	PHI	5	0	33
3	Tom	Wancho	9	PHI	4	4	SFG	4	5	TEX	5	5	MIN	4	-5	PHI	6	0	MIN	6	0	PHI	6	0	35
4	Michael	Bass	9	PHI	4	4	SFG	4	5	TBR	5	-4	NYY	4	4	PHI	6	0	NYY	7	0	PHI	7	0	37
5	Steve	Fall	9	PHI	5	4	SFG	4	5	TBR	5	-4	NYY	5	4	PHI	6	0	TBR	7	0	TBR	7	0	39
6	Wells	Oliver	8	PHI	4	4	SFG	3	4	TBR	5	-4	NYY	4	4	PHI	6	0	TBR	6	0	PHI	6	0	34
7	Norman	Macht	8	PHI	5	4	ATL	5	-5	TEX	5	5	MIN	5	-5	PHI	6	0	TEX	7	9	PHI	6	0	39
8	Monte	Cely	0	PHI	4	4	SFG	4	5	TBR	5	-4	MIN	5	-5	PHI	6	0	TBR	7	0	TBR	7	0	38
8	Gary	McIntosh	0	CIN	5	-5	SFG	4	5	TEX	5	5	MIN	5	-5	CIN	6	0	MIN	6	0	CIN	7	0	38
10	Jim	Baker	-1	PHI	3	5	SFG	5	4	TBR	4	-5	MIN	4	-5	PHI	5	0	TBR	6	0	TBR	7	0	34
11	Gilbert	Martinez	-1	PHI	5	4	SFG	4	5	TBR	4	-5	MIN	5	-5	PHI	6	0	TBR	6	0	TBR	7	0	37
12	Jan	Larson	-2	PHI	4	4	SFG	5	4	TBR	4	-5	MIN	4	-5	PHI	5	0	TBR	6	0	PHI	6	0	34
13	Bill	Gilbert	-2	PHI	4	4	ATL	5	-5	TBR	4	-5	NYY	4	4	ATL	6	0	TBR	6	0	ATL	6	0	35

Final Predictatron Results – 2010

The 2010 Hornsby Chapter Predictatron has come to an end and with that we find Gilbert is the champion. Gilbert’s rise from 9^th place (out of 11) in 2009 is most dramatic. He improved by 62 points, which should give hope for 2011 to all who did not fare so well this year.

For the second year in a row, Tom finished in second place; this time, by the smallest possible margin. While Gilbert’s winning score was six points less than Michael’s championship tally from 2009, the group averaged 12 more points than it did last year: up from 755 to 767. The biggest improvement was made by Jim, who only scored 718 last year, while the biggest drop was recorded by Jan, who fell 44 points. Michael’s loss of 40 points from 2009 caused a 10^th-place finish in 2010 on the heels of last year’s championship.

Hornsby Predictatron 2010 Final
	PLAYER	Final Score	Reg Season
1	Gilbert Martinez	794	778
2	Tom Wancho	793	775
3	Dan Walsh	790	778
4	Jim Baker	789	775
5	Craig Lukshin	783	775
6	Mike Dillon	777	763
7	Wells Oliver	773	761
8	Monte Cely	764	752
9	Bill Gilbert	763	755
10	Michael Bass	760	746
11	Paul Sporer	733	725
12	Jan Larson	726	712
13	Norman Macht	723	717

November Meeting

The next meeting of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter will be held at 6 p.m. on Thursday, Nov. 18, at Third Base located at 1717 West 6th Street in Austin. If you plan to attend, please RSVP to Jan Larson at jan.a.larson@gmail.com.

Hornsby members take in Game 1 of the ALCS

Four Hornsby Chapter members got a chance to watch Game 1 of the American League Championship Series between the New York Yankees and the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Pictured, from left, are Cy Morong, Monte Cely, Jan Larson and Gilbert Martinez.

As the first ALCS game in Texas Rangers franchise history, the atmosphere at the game was electric. Team President Nolan Ryan threw out the first pitch with his signature leg kick and fast ball. After the Yankees went down in order on the top of the first, the crowd really went wild when Josh Hamilton smoked a line drive down the right field line for a three-run home run and early lead.

The Rangers later increased their lead to 5-0, but the Yankees showed they weren’t done. With a solo home run by Robinson Cano in the 7^th inning, the Yankees brought their bats to bear in the 8^th inning. In that inning, they had seven batters reach base safely – a single, a double, two walks and three singles – before the Rangers recorded an out. The Rangers used five pitchers that inning, but the damage was done as the Yankees scored five runs that inning to take the lead.

Some of the Rangers fans lost faith and headed for the exits, but many were still around, hoping for a response by the home nine. When Ian Kinsler reached first on a walk to start the bottom of the 8^th inning, many in the crowd sensed a come-back. But alas for the Rangers, Yankees reliever Kerry Wood picked off Kinsler at first. The Yankees held on to win Game 1, 6-5.

October Meeting Summary

Thirteen members and guests of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter enjoyed League Championship games at Gilbert and Raeanne Martinez’s house on Saturday, Oct. 16. The Rangers won Game 2 of the ALCS to even their series and the Giants topped the Phillies in Game 1 of what was supposed to be a pitching duel that instead turned into a homerun derby with four long balls.

Cy Morong won the award for traveling the furthest (from San Antonio) to attend the 2^nd Annual Playoffs Watch Party and Cookout.

Steve and Katty Fall won the award for most consecutive hours awake among the party participants – some 17 hours (!), thanks to prior commitments throughout the day.

Chuck and Jennifer Kaufman took home the prize for most sporting-related events during the weekend, which included watching part of the Rangers-Yankees game, a Texas State Bobcats football game and a Texas Stars hockey game the next night!

After the baseball games, we watched the latest episode of The Simpsons, an animated show that depicts Lisa becoming manager of Bart’s little league baseball team and injecting sabermetrics and statistical analysis. It’s well worth watching if you haven’t seen it. Look for appearances by Bill James and Mike Scioscia. The episode, called “MoneyBART,” can be seen on the Fox website, or by clicking here.

No date was set for the November meeting, but it will probably be in mid-November. More details soon.

Astros Begin Reloading in 2010 Season

By Bill Gilbert

After a miserable start to the 2010 season, the Houston Astros made a mid-course correction in July. Astro icons Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman were traded for 6 younger players and the Club made a modest recovery in the second half of the season with rookies manning four positions in most games. Catcher Jason Castro and third baseman Chris Johnson were recalled from the minor leagues, first baseman Chris Wallace was acquired as an add-on to the Oswalt trade and shortstop, Angel Sanchez was obtained in a trade with the Red Sox to share the shortstop job with fellow rookie Tommy Manzella.

After losing 5-2 to the Giants on opening night to start an 8-game losing streak, the Astros never reached .500 and dropped as much as 19 games below on July 4. Two and a half months later, the team improved to a mark of 73-77 on September 20 before faltering on a 10-day road trip to finish at 76-86, two games ahead of last year. The Club spent most of September in 3^rd place ahead of the Brewers but needed a shutout of the Cubs on the final game of the season to finish a game ahead of the Cubs in 4^th place. The Astros compiled a record of 40-33 after the All-Star break.

The biggest problem the team faced was a lack of offensive production, particularly early in the season from the three hitters in the middle of the lineup, Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence. Pence and Lee improved in the second half as Pence hit 25 home runs for the third straight year and led the team with 91 RBIs. Lee was close behind with 24 home runs and 89 RBIs but his .246 batting average was far below his career average of .291. Berkman had only 13 home runs and a .245 batting average before his trade on July 30. The team finished last in the National League in home runs and the only other Astro player in double figures was rookie Chris Johnson with 11 in a little over half of the season.

The team scored an average of 3.77 runs per game, far below the league average of 4.33. The Club allowed opposing teams 4.50 runs per game. With figures like this, a team would be expected to win about 66 rather than 76 games. Thus, it can be concluded that the team may not be as good as the record indicated. Compounding the lack of power is a deficiency in getting on base. The Astros finished last in the National League in both on-base percentage (.303 vs. league average of .324) and slugging percentage (.362 vs. league average of .399). They were also last in the major leagues in walks and next to last in runs.

Pence and Lee are the only established power hitters on the team. To overcome the power deficiency, newcomers Johnson, Wallace and Castro must provide about 20-25 home runs apiece if the Astros are to be competitive since little power can be expected from the second base, shortstop and center field positions.

There were a few offensive bright spots for the Astros in 2010. Johnson batted .308, the highest figure among National League rookies. Second baseman Jeff Keppinger batted .288 and was the hardest player in the league to strike out. Michael Bourn led the league in stolen bases with 52 and again played gold glove-caliber defense in center field. And who can forget the unlikely 4-game sweep of the Phillies in Philadelphia in August.

Turning to pitching, the Astros were in the middle of the pack with an ERA of 4.09 vs. the league average of 4.02. After the departure of Oswalt, Brett Myers was the staff ace with a 14-9 record and an ERA of 3.14. He pitched 6 or more innings in his first 32 starts before getting hit hard in his final start of the season and being removed after 5 2/3 innings. Wandy Rodriguez, after a very slow start, was the only other pitcher with more than 10 wins with a record of 11-12 and an ERA of 3.60. The bullpen was reasonably effective and produced two pitchers with 20+ saves in Matt Lindstrom (23) and Brandon Lyon (20). It was only the 5^th time that a team had two pitchers with 20 saves.

Looking forward, the Astros resurgence in the second half of the season provides some hope for 2011. Manager Brad Mills and his staff are providing the type of leadership and stability the team needs. The starting pitching was generally strong in the second half with the emergence of J.A. Happ, obtained in the Oswalt trade, the continued development of Bud Norris and the surprising success of Nelson Figueroa. The bullpen was strengthened by the addition of Wilton Lopez, Fernando Abad and Mark Melancon. However, on the offensive side, the lack of power and on-base skills must be addressed if the team is to be a contender.

10/6/10

October Meeting/Playoffs Watch Party

It’s time for the 2nd Annual Rogers Hornsby Chapter Playoff Watch Party and Cookout! We’ll watch Game 2 of the ALCS and Game 1 of the NLCS on Saturday, Oct. 16.

The times for the games have not been announced, but one game will probably start in mid-afternoon and the other will be in the evening. A follow-up email will be sent out once start times are announced.

This will serve as the monthly meeting for the chapter.

For those who were able to attend last year, you may remember the fun time we had at Gilbert’s house. We saw the Dodgers close out the Cardinals in a three-game sweep and would’ve watched the second game, but it was snowed out in Colorado!

Gilbert will grill hamburgers and veggie burgers. You can bring a side dish, or dessert, or beverages. Please email me directly with what you plan to bring so we have a variety.

Please RSVP directly to Gilbert and he will send you his home address and home phone.

Questions? Dietary needs the cook should know about? Email Gilbert off list at gmartinez46@austin.rr.com.

September Meeting Summary

Seven chapter members gathered at Third Base in Austin for dinner and to discuss the pennant races as well as favorites for the MVP and Cy Young awards. No formal votes were taken, but the consensus was that Joey Votto of Reds and Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers are the likely favorites for MVP. There was some discussion of the changing SABR demographics, "reversion to mean," fielding independent pitching (FIP) and batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

We also discussed some items related to the Winter Meeting scheduled for January 2011 and tentative plans for a League Championship Series watching party next month to be hosted by Gilbert and Raeanne Martinez.

2011 Winter Meeting

Society for American Baseball Research

ROGERS HORNSBY CHAPTER

Fifth Annual WINTER MEETING

at TEXAS STATE UNIVERSITY

OLD MAIN BUILDING, ROOM 320

SATURDAY, JANUARY 15, 2011

10am – 4pm

AGENDA

10:00 – 10:20am – Register (plus make your lunch selection); Meet and Greet

10:20 – 10:30am – Welcome & Logistics – Gilbert Martinez

10:30 – 11:00am – Icebreaker and Baseball Quiz – Norman Macht

11:00 – 12:15pm – Houston Astros Broadcaster Bill Brown

12:15 – 12:45pm – Lunch & Mingle

12:45 – 1:00pm – Memorabilia Discussion (see below)

1:00 – 1:25pm – Mike Capps – 2011 Round Rock Express Preview

1:25 – 1:50pm – Steve Fall – The Expanded Post-season and its Impact on True Champions

1:50 – 2:15pm – Craig Budner – Hyman Pearlstone and Connie Mack

2:15 – 3:00pm – Norman Macht Interviews Bobby Thomson

3:00 – 4:00pm – Major League Veteran and Broadcaster Jerry Grote

BOOK EXCHANGE – members are encouraged to bring a baseball book to exchange

MEMORABILIA – if you’d like to bring a memorabilia item, take a minute to tell about it; wear your favorite team jersey or cap, especially if there’s a story to tell about them

You may contact any member of the organizing committee if you have any questions:

Gilbert Martinez : gmartinez46@austin.rr.com

Monte Cely : cely@swbell.net

Jan Larson : jan.a.larson@gmail.com

The meeting will be on the third floor in the Old Main building. Look for the elevator on the first floor, or use the stairs. Here’s a photo of Old Main:

Directions to Texas State University-San Marcos

If you’re traveling north from San Antonio, take I-35 and take Exit 206, Aquarena Springs Drive.

If you’re traveling south from Austin, take I-35 and take Exit 206, Aquarena Springs Drive.

Travel west on Aquarena Springs Drive, which turns into University Drive. After crossing the San Marcos River, you will come to a traffic light. Turn right onto Sessom Drive. Just before the first light, turn left on State Street and go up a steep road toward Old Main. Go through a gate (the gate should be up) and continue up the hill. At the top of the hill, make a sharp left turn and drive up to Old Main. Look for parking on this road that winds around the side and back of Old Main.

You can find additional parking at the Pleasant Street Garage, located at the corner of N. LBJ and Pleasant Street. To reach this garage, after you pass through the gate, continue up the hill, then down the hill to the stop sign on Pleasant Street. Turn left; the entrance to the parking garage will be on your left.

You do not need a parking pass to park on campus – however, do not park in spaces not marked as parking spaces or in handicapped parking (unless you have the appropriate tag displayed).

The meeting room is on the third floor in Room 320. There is an elevator on the first floor, or you can take the stairs.

If you get lost or need help, call Gilbert Martinez (cell phone: 512-963-1263).

Use this link to see a Googe map showing the Texas State campus in relation to I-35:

http://tiny.cc/zMwzj

Use this link to see a closer view of Old Main and the campus:

http://tiny.cc/VJ8BH

Book Review: The Baseball Codes

The Baseball Codes:

Beanballs, Sign Stealing, and Bench-Clearing Brawls:

The Unwritten Rules of America’s Pastime

by Jason Turbow with Michael Duca

A Baseball Book Review

Gilbert D. Martinez

gmartinez46@austin.rr.com

The Baseball Codes is a fun and entertaining read about episodes, many highly hilarious, throughout baseball’s history. The authors do a good job sprinkling stories from just about every era of the game, giving casual and passionate fans of the game something new to read.

The book opens with a recounting of the infamous decision by Robin Ventura of the White Sox to charge the mound in Arlington after being hit by Rangers pitcher Nolan Ryan in the last year of his Hall of Fame pitching career in 1993.

I’ve seen photos of Ryan holding Ventura in a neckhold with his fist pulled back, cocked, just an instant from pummeling Ventura’s unfortunate face. This incident is often used to described Ventura’s ill-advised decision to challenge one of the greatest and hardest-throwing pitchers of all time. Jokes are made about how Ventura’s face served as a punching bag.

But the authors of the book focus on the backstory, which they find much more interesting. They say that baseball’s unwritten rules are what compelled Ventura to rush the mound, whether he wanted to or not.

Three years before, Ryan had given up back-to-back home runs by Craig Grebeck and Ozzie Guillen in the second game of a double-header, which the White Sox swept. Seven days later, Ryan nailed Grebeck in the back and knocked Scott Fletcher down one pitch after Fletcher asked the umpire to inspect the ball for scuff marks.

Before the fateful game, the White Sox players talked about Ryan and agreed that enough was enough. The only thing they could do, they agreed, was something extreme, like charge the mound, to try to put an end to Ryan’s intimidation tactics.

So, when Ventura was hit, he really had no choice but to charge the mound. Either way, he couldn’t win. If he failed to respond, he risked alienating his teammates; if he did rush the mound — well, we know he took his beating.

The Baseball Codes is filled with similar stories about the quirky traditions and customs of baseball. Anecdotes about not running up the score, playing the game the right way, not showing up your opponents, retaliation and sign stealing. There are also stories about how players don’t talk to the pitcher when he takes a no-hitter or perfect game into the late innings.

Though the book is not filled with Sabermetric-type numbers, it makes for a nice complement by providing insights into baseball behavior that go beyond OPS+ and WHIP.

Here are the key statistics:

Book: The Baseball Codes: Beanballs, Sign Stealing and Bench-Clearing Brawls: The Unwritten Rules of America’s Pastime

Authors: Jason Turbow and Michael Duca

Authors’ credentials: Turbow is a regular contributor to Giants Magazine and A’s Magazine. His writing has appeared in The New York Times, SportsIllustrated.com, Popular Science and the San Francisco Chronicle. Duca works in the Office of the Commissioner of Major League Baseball as an official scorer and for mlb.com. He has written for Sports-Ticker, Giants Today in the San Francisco Chronicle and the Associated Press and was the first chairman of the board of Bill James’s Project Scoresheet.

Published: 2010, Pantheon Books (New York)

Length: 304 pages

Price: Retail list – $25.00; Online – from $12.49 (used) plus shipping