November Meeting Wrap-Up

Eight members assembled at Third Base in Austin for the November meeting of the Rogers Hornsby chapter.  Monte Cely presented Jan Larson with a major award for winning Monte’s annual Cy Young prediction contest.

Michael Bass had prepared a trivia quiz on the decade of the 1960s.  Unfortunately a conflict prevented Michael from presenting the quiz but he did leave the answers in a hermetically sealed envelope with Tom Wancho who handled administration duties.  Dan Walsh edged Jim Baker for the win by a score of 13-12 with the other contestants relegated to also-ran status.

Tom Wancho also served in an administrative capacity as the members conducted a vote on the upcoming Hall of Fame managers/umpires and executive candidates.  Applying the same standards as the Hall of Fame, specifically requiring 75% of the votes cast for an individual to be elected, the chapter elected only one candidate – Marvin Miller, former executive director of the Major League Players Association.

The planning committee for the Hornsby Chapter Winter Meeting put together a preliminary agenda for that meeting which will be held on January 16.  Details will be finalized at a later date.

Discussion centered on the recently completed post-season and the traditional off-season "hot stove" topics.

The next monthly meeting was scheduled for Thursday, December 17 also at Third Base.

 

Triple Milestones – 2009

 

Triple Milestones – 2009
 
By Bill Gilbert
 
      Offensive production in the major leagues in 2009 was down slightly in 2009. The number of runs per game has declined each year from 9.72 in 2006 to 9.22 in 2009. The home run rate of 2.02 was essentially unchanged from the 2.01 rate in 2008. The league batting average of .262 was the lowest since 2002. All offensive categories   are significantly below the peak year of 2000 as illustrated in the following table:
 
Year      Runs/Game HR/Game BAVG  OBA    SLG    OPS      Triple Milestone Hitters
—- ——— ——- —-   —-   —-  —     ————————
1990     8.51     1.58   .258 .324   .386   .710              2
1991     8.62     1.61   .255 .323   .384   .707              3
1992     8.23     1.44   .256 .322   .377   .699              2
1993     9.20     1.78   .266 .332   .404   .736              5
1994     9.85     2.07   .270 .339   .424   .763              3
1995     9.69     2.02   .267 .338   .417   .755              8
1996    10.07     2.19   .270 .340   .427   .767             21
1997     9.53     2.05   .267 .337   .419   .756              7
1998     9.58     2.08   .266 .335   .420   .755             14
1999    10.17     2.28   .271 .345   .434   .779             19
2000    10.28     2.34   .271 .345   .437   .782             26
2001     9.55     2.25   .264 .332   .427   .759             21
2002     9.24     2.09   .261 .331   .417   .748             12
2003     9.46     2.14   .264 .332   .422   .754              8
2004     9.63     2.25   .266 .335   .428   .763             12
2005     9.18     2.06   .265 .330   .419   .749             10
2006     9.72     2.22   .269 .336   .432   .768             13
2007     9.59     2.04   .268 .336   .423   .759              8 
2008     9.30     2.01   .264 .333   .417   .750              7
2009     9.22     2.02   .262 .333   .418   .751              6
 
      No players hit 50 home runs again in 2009. Five players hit 40 or more home runs in 2009 compared to only two in 2008. All of the players with 40 home runs were in the National League. The last American League player to hit 40 home runs was Alex Rodriguez (54) in 2007. The 30 home run level was reached by 30 players in 2009 compared to 28 in 2008. 
 
      A useful indicator for tracking offense is the number of players who hit for both power and average by achieving a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 runs batted in. A record 26 players reached all three milestones in 2000, but that figure has dropped significantly in recent years. Only six players reached all three milestones in 2009, down from 7 in 2008. 8 in 2007 and 13 in 2006. Albert Pujols was the only player who made it in both 2008 and 2009.
 
Three players from each league achieved all three milestones in 2009. Pujols became the only player to do it in his first 9 seasons. There were three newcomers to the .300-30-100 club in 2009, Ryan Braun, Kendry Morales and Adam Lind, all born in 1983, bringing the total to 164 players who have registered at least one .300-30-100 season starting with Babe Ruth in 1920.
 
      Following is a listing of players who achieved triple milestones
in 2009:
 
Player           Times BAVG-HR-RBI       Comments
National
Albert Pujols      9    .327-47-135 One of the all-time greats.
Derrek Lee         2    .306-35-111 One of few bright spots for Cubs.
Ryan Braun         1    .320-32-114 Came close in two previous years.
 
 
Player           Times BAVG-HR-RBI       Comments
American
Miguel Cabrera     3    .323-33-101  Consistent production every year.
Kendry Morales     1    .306-34-108  Big-time breakout season.
Adam Lind          1    .305-35-114  Came out of nowhere.
 
      Six players achieved triple milestones in 2008 but fell short in 2009:
 
Player           Times    BAVG-HR-RBI    BAVG-HR-RBI    
                 In Past      2008           2009     Comments
Manny Ramirez     10     .332-37-121    .290-19- 63 50 game suspension hurt.
Alex Rodriguez     8     .302-35-103    .286-30-100 Late start after surgery
Mark Teixeira      3     .308-33-121    .292-39-122 Good recovery after slow start.
Aubrey Huff        2     .304-32-108    .241-15- 85 Not even close.
David Wright       2     .302-33-124    .307-10- 72 Power down in new park.
Josh Hamilton      1     .304-32-130    .268-10- 54 Too many injuries.
 
      The biggest obstacle in reaching triple milestones in 2009 was batting average. Thirteen players had 30 home runs and 100 RBIs in 2009 but fell short of a .300 batting average.
 
Prince Fielder           .299-46-141      Only Pujols had a better year.
Mark Teixeira            .292-39-122      Led AL in HR and RBIs.      
Ryan Zimmerman           .292-33-106      Bright future ahead.           
Aaron Hill               .286-36-108      Surprising power this year.
Alex Rodriguez           .286-30-100      Two HR and 7 RBIs in last game.
Evan Longoria            .281-33-113      Still getting better.
Ryan Howard              .279-45-141      Four straight years with 40+ HR.
Justin Morneau           .274-30-100      Injury cut season short.
Andre Ethier             .272-31-106      Power up: average down.
Jason Bay                .267-36-119      Best hitting outfielder in AL.
Adam Dunn                .267-38-105      Hit 40+ HR in each of last 5 years.
Mark Reynolds            .260-44-102      Too many strikeouts to hit for average.
Carlos Pena              .227-39-100      Tied for AL lead in HR.
  
      Jason Kubel (.300-28-103) and Carlos Lee (.300-26-102) had the batting average and RBIs but fell short on home runs. Joe Mauer batted .365 but fell short on home runs (28) and RBIs (96). However, he had a more impressive accomplishment by leading the American League in batting average, on-base percentage (.444) and slugging average (.587).
 
      A growing list contains the names of players, active in 2009, who have had multiple .300-30-100 seasons in the past but have not done it in the last three years. Many have been limited by injuries. Some are still very productive players but not at the same level they were in their peak years. Since this list was started in 2004, not one player has come back with another .300-30-100 season.
 
                                 Last
                .300-30-100  .300-30-100 
Player            Seasons      Season       2009     Comments 
Vladimir Guerrero    8           2006    .295-15- 50 Had 13 straight .300 seasons.
Gary Sheffield       6           2003    .276-10- 43  Now a part-time player.
Todd Helton          5           2003    .325-15- 86 Strong comeback in 2009.
Chipper Jones        5           2001    .264-18- 71 Hit .364 in 2008.
Jason Giambi         4           2002    .201-13- 51 Close to Mendoza line.
Magglio Ordonez      4           2002    .310- 9- 50 Has lost power. 
Ken Griffey, Jr.     3           1997    .214-19- 57 Winding down HOF career.   
Carlos Delgado       3           2005    .298- 4- 23 Missed most of season.
Lance Berkman        3           2006    .274-25- 80 May be in decline.
Brian Giles          2           2000    .191- 2- 23 End of the line.
Jim Thome            2           2002    .249-23- 77 Strikes out, walks or homers.
Aramis Ramirez       2           2004    .317-15- 65 Season wrecked by injuries.
Miguel Tejada        2           2004    .313-14- 86 Still hits but not with power.
Jermaine Dye         2           2006    .250-27- 81 Slowing down.
Travis Hafner        2           2006    .272-16- 49 Can’t regain power.
Vernon Wells         2           2006    .260-15- 66 Major disappointment.
 
 
      In his 1988 Baseball Abstract, Bill James referred to triple
milestone seasons as "Hall of Fame Seasons". This was because all of the
eligible players with 5 or more triple milestone seasons had been
elected to the Hall of Fame. This correlation has continued to hold but is likely to break down when Juan Gonzalez becomes eligible in 2011.
 
            No teams had two players with triple milestones in 2009. Twenty eight of the thirty major league teams have had at least one triple milestone hitter in the decade beginning with the year 2000. Of the two teams that haven’t, Cincinnati has the longest dry spell. Their last triple milestone hitter was George Foster in 1977. Kansas City has not had a triple milestone hitter since Danny Tartabull in 1991.    
 
     
      Only one minor league player recorded triple milestone seasons in 2009. 
 
Player            Team (Level)     Organization     Age   BAVG-HR-RBI  
 
Randy Ruiz        Las Vegas (AAA)    Toronto           31   .320-25-106
                  Toronto (AL)                              .313-10- 17            
                                                            .319-35-123
 
      Three others came close:
 
 
Chris Carter      Midland (AA)        Oakland          22   .337-24-101
                  Sacramento (AAA)                          .259- 4- 14
                                                            .329-28-115
 
Garrett Jones      Indianapolis (AAA) Pittsburgh       28   .307-12- 50
                  Pittsburgh (NL)                           .293-21- 44
                                                            .299-33- 94
 
 
Mitch Jones       Albuquerque (AAA)   Los Angeles      31   .297-35-103
                  Los Angeles (NL)                          .308- 0- 0
                                                            .298-35-103
 
 
      No college players achieved triple milestones in 2009                                           
 
      Pitchers also strive for triple milestones – 20 wins, 200 strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00. Esteban Loaiza was the only pitcher to do it in 2003 (21-9, 207, 2.90). Johan Santana (20-6, 265, 2.61) did it in 2004 and Chris Carpenter (21-5, 213, 2.83) was the only one to do it in 2005. After no pitchers made it in 2006 and 2007, Roy Halladay of Toronto broke through in 2008 with a triple milestone season (20-11, 206, 2.78). No pitchers made it in 2009 but if the Cardinals had not blown a 6-0 lead in Adam Wainwright’s last start he would have made it (19-8, 212, 2.63).
 
 
TRIP2009.DOC
11/4/09

Post-Season Prediction results – 2009

Dan Walsh has won the Hornsby Postseason Prediction contest. Although Dan had the Phillies winning the World Series, his strong showing in the first round put him in a position to best challenger Jan Larson, who correctly picked a six-game Yankee win in the Series. Michael Bass also correctly picked a Yankee win, although he opted for seven games, garnering him nine points instead of 10. Tom Wancho rounded out the top three.

 

Postseason 2009!

 
Total
PHI-COL
STL-LAD
BOS-LAA
NYY-MIN
NLCS
ALCS
World Series
Win
G
Pts
Win
G
Pts
Win
G
Pts
Win
G
Pts
Win
G
Pts
Win
G
Pts
Win
G
Pts
1
Dan
Walsh
24
PHI
3
4
LAD
5
4
LAA
4
4
NYY
4
4
PHI
7
8
LAA
6
0
PHI
7
0
2
Jan
Larson
20
PHI
4
5
STL
5
-5
BOS
5
-5
NYY
3
5
STL
6
0
NYY
6
10
NYY
6
10
3
Tom
Wancho
18
PHI
4
5
STL
4
-5
LAA
5
4
NYY
5
4
STL
6
0
NYY
6
10
STL
6
0
4
Michael
Bass
17
COL
5
-5
STL
5
-5
LAA
5
4
NYY
4
4
STL
7
0
NYY
6
10
NYY
7
9
4
Bill
Gilbert
17
COL
5
-5
LAD
5
4
LAA
5
4
NYY
4
4
LAD
5
0
NYY
6
10
LAD
7
0
6
Monte
Cely
9
PHI
4
5
STL
4
-5
LAA
4
4
NYY
3
5
STL
6
0
LAA
6
0
STL
6
0
7
Gilbert
Martinez
8
COL
5
-5
STL
4
-5
LAA
5
4
NYY
3
5
STL
6
0
NYY
5
9
STL
6
0
7
Jim
Baker
8
PHI
4
5
LAD
5
4
BOS
5
-5
NYY
4
4
LAD
5
0
BOS
6
0
LAD
7
0
9
Craig
Lukshin
-2
PHI
5
4
STL
4
-5
BOS
5
-5
NYY
4
4
STL
6
0
BOS
7
0
BOS
6
0
10
Joe
LeBritton
-11
COL
4
-5
STL
3
-5
BOS
4
-5
NYY
4
4
COL
7
0
BOS
6
0
BOS
5
0

 

 

Final Predictatron Results – 2009

Mike Dillon, Jan Larson and Cy Morong are the three who had the Yankees going all the way. Monte Cely and Dan Walsh picked the Phillies to make it to the World Series, but only Dan had them winning it.

PLAYER
Score
Mike Bass
800
Tom Wancho
772
Jan Larson
770
Cy Morong
770
Mike Dillon
769
Dan Walsh
758
Monte Cely
741
Bill Gilbert
733
Gilbert Martinez
731
Jim Baker
718
Paul Sporer
699
 

Astros End Season on Low Note

 

Astros End Season on a Low Note
 
 
            The Houston Astros limped to the finish line in 2009 with a 74-88 record after being swept by the lowly Mets on the final weekend. Starting on September 1, the Astros went 11-20 as the Club fell short in all aspects of the game.
 
            After a winless road trip (0-6) in mid-September, Manager Cecil Cooper was replaced by Third Base Coach, Dave Clark on September 21 on an interim basis. While Clark brought some energy to the position and established better communications, the team did not perform any better with a record of 4-9 in Clark’s 13 games at the helm. A search is currently underway for a new manager and Clark is one of the candidates.
 
            The Astros were well below the National League average in both hitting and pitching. The team scored 643 runs, an average of 3.97 per game and allowed 770, an average of 4.75 per game. Only Pittsburgh and San Diego scored fewer runs and only Washington, Milwaukee and Arizona allowed more. The team On-Base Percentage was .319, ranking 13th in the league. The team ERA of 4.54 also ranked
13th. The Astros led the league in grounding into double plays with 153.
 
            Despite their problems, there were some bright spots in the final month. The Astros swept a four game series against the Phillies in Minute Maid Park early in the month. Miguel Tejada, after slumping in August, finished strong with a 21-game hitting streak including a couple of 4-hit games and he led the league in doubles with 46. His 199 hits were second only to Craig Biggio’s 210 in 1998 in the team’s 48-year history. Michael Bourn continued his breakout year, leading the league in stolen bases with 61 and playing sensational defense in center field which should win him a Gold Glove. Rookie Bud Norris recorded 4 strong starts in September before being shut down after reaching a pre-set innings limit. He pitched 55 innings with the Astros, slightly exceeding the rookie threshold of 50 so he will not be classified as a rookie in 2010 when he should be in the starting rotation.
 
            Tejada led the team in hitting with an average of .313 and Carlos Lee led in home runs with 26, one more than Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence. Lee also led in RBIs with 102 while batting an even .300. Berkman, in an off-year, led the team with a .399 on-base average and a .509 slugging average, but saw his career batting average drop from .302 to .299.
 
            Wandy Rodriguez, the only pitcher on the staff with more than 8 wins, became the staff ace with a 14-12 record and an ERA of 3.02.   Roy Oswalt, hampered by nagging injuries, had his worst season with an 8-6 record and a 4.12 ERA. Jose Valverde had 25 saves and LaTroy Hawkins had 11. The bullpen experienced considerable turnover and a total of 18 pitchers won at least one game.
 
            Rebuilding the minor league system is continuing but, for the second straight year, all of the domestic Astro minor league teams had losing records. The 2008 draft class, led by No.1 pick, catcher Jason Castro, looks promising. Castro played well at Double-A Corpus Christi after a mid-season promotion. He should be at Triple-A Round Rock in 2010 but will be given a chance to make the big league roster in spring training. College outfielders T. J. Steele, Jay Shuck and Jon Gaston, all drafted in 2008, had strong showings at High Class A, Lancaster, California in 2009 and should be at Corpus Christi in 2010. High school pitchers, Ross Seaton, Jordan Lyles and Brad Dydalowicz, also drafted in 2008, pitched well at Low Class A Lexington and could also be at Corpus Christi in 2010.
 
            The Astros losing record in 2009 was only their third since Jeff Bagwell’s rookie year in 1991. However, two of the losing seasons were in the last three years. The team obviously needs some reinforcements in order to be competitive, especially in the starting rotation. Some tough decisions must be faced in the off-season with Tejada, Valverde, Hawkins and Geoff Blum eligible for free agency.
 
Bill Gilbert
10/12/09

October Meeting Wrap-up

Eight members and four guests enjoyed the first-ever Rogers Hornsby Chapter Playoff Watch Party and Cookout on Saturday at the home of Gilbert and Raeanne Martinez.

 

The only disappointment – aside from the lackluster performance by the St. Louis Cardinals – was the postponement of the late game between the Rockies and the Phillies due to snow in Denver.

 

The jalapeño-onion burgers were popular, as were the raspberry-filled cupcakes with icing designed to look like baseballs (the cupcakes were courtesy Lucila Martinez, Gilbert Martinez’s sister-in-law).

 

There was no quiz, but the group grappled with some baseball trivia. Norman Macht pondered how many Hall of Famers (as a player or manager) had won exactly one World Series. He didn’t know how many there have been, but one candidate would be Earl Weaver. Are there others?

 

Gilbert Martinez repeated a question he asked on the list-serve – Which is the only team, since 1930, that had four players each with 200 or more hits in a season?

 

With barely a pause, Bill Gilbert named the team: the 1937 Detroit Tigers. The group came up with the four players: G. Walker (213), C. Gehringer (209), P. Fox (208) and H. Greenberg (200).

 

Gilbert Martinez also shared that a team with three players with 200+ hits each has occurred a handful of times. They are the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs in 1930, the ’35 N.Y. Giants, the ’63 Cardinals, the ’82 Brewers and the ’91 Rangers.

 

There was some discussion about a fair flyball by Joe Mauer that had been mistakenly called a foul ball in the Yankees-Twins game the night before. There was also some discussion about who the Astros should hire as their next manager. Both Bill Gilbert and Gilbert Martinez said they hoped it would be Tim Bogar, first base coach for the Boston Red Sox, and former Astros player. Bill joked that Bogar’s schedule was about to be wide open (for interview purposes) because the Angels had the Red Sox on the brink of elimination (And Bill was right – the Angels eliminated the Red Sox at Fenway with a dramatic 9th inning come-back the following day).

 

The next meeting has not yet been scheduled, but will probably be in early November.

Final Regular Season Predictatron Standings – 2009

Final regular season standings.

 
HORNSBY PREDICTATRON
 
 
 
 
PLAYER
Score
Last
plus/minus
last time
move
1
Mike Bass
774
762
12
1
0
2
Tom Wancho
752
739
13
2
0
3
Jan Larson
730
724
6
3
0
3
Dan Walsh
730
722
8
4
1
5
Mike Dillon
727
721
6
5
0
6
Cy Morong
722
717
5
6
0
7
Gilbert Martinez
721
716
5
7
0
8
Bill Gilbert
715
711
4
8
0
9
Monte Cely
713
699
14
10
1
10
Jim Baker
706
701
5
9
-1
11
Paul Sporer
689
689
0
11
0
 

Chasing 200 Hits in 2009

With the completion of the 2009 season (well, there is Game #163, Twins-Tigers; more on that in a moment), only four players made it to the 200 hit plateau, one more than last year.

 

They are Ichiro Suzuki (225) of the Seattle Mariners, Derek Jeter (212) and Robinson Cano (204) of the New York Yankees and Ryan Braun (203) of the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

As you probably already know, this was Ichiro’s ninth consecutive season of 200+ hits, setting a record for most consecutive 200-hit seasons (breaking Wee Willie Keeler’s mark of eight consecutive seasons). Only Pete Rose has had more 200+ hit seasons; he had 10, a mark that Ichiro will try to tie next season.

 

Ichiro’s achievement is notable, especially because he started the season on the disabled list – the first time in his MLB career that he’s missed playing time due to an injury. He also missed some playing time in August because of an injury, sitting out a total of 16 games during the season.

 

All those hits didn’t necessarily translate into runs. According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, Ichiro’s 88 runs scored are the fewest by a player with at least 220 hits in a season.

 

For Jeter, this was his seventh season of 200+ hits.

 

For both Cano and Braun, this was their first season of 200+ hits.

 

It’s not the first time teammates have combined for 200+ hits. In fact, in the 2000’s alone, it’s been done five times, including this year’s Jeter-Cano tandem.

 

The last time was in 2007 when Magglio Ordonez (216) and Placido Polanco (200) did so. Before that, Alfonso Soriano (209) and Bernie Williams (204) of the Yankees teamed up for 200+ hits in 2002. In 2001, Ichiro (242) and Brett Boone (206) combined for the feat. In 2000, Johnny Damon (214) and Mike Sweeney (206) of the Royals were the dynamic duo.

 

You may note that all of those instances were done in the American League. The last time a National League duo achieved this was in 1998 when Dante Bichette (219) and Vinny Castillo (206) of the Colorado Rockies did so.

 

How often have three teammates all reached 200 hits? Since 1930, it’s been done six times – the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs in 1930, the 1935 New York Giants, the 1963 St. Louis Cardinals, the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers and the 1991 Texas Rangers.

 

Only once since 1930 has four teammates each reach 200 hits in the same season – the 1937 Detroit Tigers.

 

Miguel Tejada nearly joined the list of 200+ hits, but fell one short. He went 1-4 in the Astros’ last game, leaving him with 199 total hits. It would have been his fourth 200 hit season.

 

So, what about the one-game playoff between the Tigers and the Twins? Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers currently has 196 hits. Since this 163rd game counts as part of the regular season, he could reach 200. If so, we’ll add an addendum to this report (see update below). It would be his first 200 hit season. In 2005 with the Marlins, he had 198 hits, the closest he’s come to 200.

 

Joe Mauer of the Twins has 189 hits, so it’s unlikely he’ll reach 200 this season.

 

UPDATE: In a thrilling 6-5 Twins win over the Tigers in the 12th inning, Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers went 2-5, meaning that he matched his 2005 total of 198 hits. Also, Joe Mauer of the Twins went 2-4, bringing his hit total to 191 for the year.